Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Derivatives

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> stock dropped nearly 7% on Tuesday, April 28, after announcing a massive (62.4M) share placement at a discount. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (300750 CH)</a> fell only 1.66%.</li>
<li>Quantitative <strong>DAILY</strong> model analysis of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (300750 CH)</a> identifying short-term support targets and projected price action for the next trading sessions.</li>
<li>We expect a rebound on Wednesday/Thursday, support around 420 looks statistically quite solid, according to our model.</li>
</ul>



CATL (3750 HK) stock dropped nearly 7% on Tuesday, April 28, after announcing a massive (62.4M) share placement at a discount. CATL (300750 CH) fell only 1.66%.
Quantitative DAILY model analysis of CATL (300750 CH) identifying short-term support targets and projected price action for the next trading sessions.
We expect a rebound on Wednesday/Thursday, support around 420 looks statistically quite solid, according to our model.


CATL (300750 CH): Tactical Outlook After Discounted Share Placement Announcement

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>We assess the HSI and HSCEI index impact of CATL's 62.4m primary share placement across four review cycles to May 2027.</li>
<li>HSI weight rises toward 0.8–0.9% at the Sep 2026 rebalance; HSCEI inclusion likely by Feb 2027 as post-placement shares dominate the MV12 window.</li>
<li>Two passive flow events totalling 5.36m shares for HSI and HSCEI will happen over two implementation cycles.</li>
</ul>


We assess the HSI and HSCEI index impact of CATL's 62.4m primary share placement across four review cycles to May 2027.
HSI weight rises toward 0.8–0.9% at the Sep 2026 rebalance; HSCEI inclusion likely by Feb 2027 as post-placement shares dominate the MV12 window.
Two passive flow events totalling 5.36m shares for HSI and HSCEI will happen over two implementation cycles.


CATL-H Placement: HSI and HSCEI Index Impact

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK)</a> (CATL) is now looking to raise US$5bn via issuing new shares.</li>
<li>Two weeks ago we wrote about how CATL could look to raise US$5bn via a primary issuance, since then nearly US$4.5bn worth of secondary deals have taken place.</li>
<li>In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK) (CATL) is now looking to raise US$5bn via issuing new shares.
Two weeks ago we wrote about how CATL could look to raise US$5bn via a primary issuance, since then nearly US$4.5bn worth of secondary deals have taken place.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.


Aequitas: CATL H-Share Placement- Will Be Very Well Flagged US$5bn Deal but Last Deal Didn’t Do Well

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> listed in May 2025 by selling 135.579m shares at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised fully. The stock is up 151% since then.</li>
<li>Media reports indicate that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> could use the recent runup in the stock price to raise up to US$5bn in a share sale.</li>
<li>Passives will mop up around 15% of the offering. Southbound investors have been selling, shorts are rising, and the H/A premium could move sharply lower from here.</li>
</ul>



CATL (3750 HK) listed in May 2025 by selling 135.579m shares at HK$263/share. The overallotment option of 20.337m shares was also exercised fully. The stock is up 151% since then.
Media reports indicate that CATL (3750 HK) could use the recent runup in the stock price to raise up to US$5bn in a share sale.
Passives will mop up around 15% of the offering. Southbound investors have been selling, shorts are rising, and the H/A premium could move sharply lower from here.


CATL (3750 HK): Implications of Potential US$5bn Offering

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/victory-giant-technology-huizhou-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:48083:1" rel="noopener">Victory Giant (2476 HK)</a> managed to perform well in HK's larget listing so far this year.</li>
<li>On the placement front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK)</a> witnessed selldowns on its A-share and H-shares line.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Victory Giant (2476 HK) managed to perform well in HK's larget listing so far this year.
On the placement front, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK) witnessed selldowns on its A-share and H-shares line.


Aequitas ECM Weekly (27 April 2026)-CATL, Victory Giant, Huaqin, MTT, Lightelligence, CICT, Sany

China

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) is a Chinese battery manufacturer and technology company specializing in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and energy storage systems. It is the world's largest producer of EV and energy storage batteries, also offering battery materials and recycling services. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Ningde, Fujian province, China.

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Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

CATL-H Placement: HSI and HSCEI Index Impact

CATL-H placement: we forecast HSI and HSCEI index impact from the 40% new free float shares across four review cycles, with HSCEI inclusion likely...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CATL (3750 HK): Implications of Potential US$5bn Offering

CATL has reportedly launched a placement to raise around US$5bn. The price range is HK$628.20 to HK$$651.80 per share, a 3.5%–7% discount to the...

Brian Freitas

Aequitas ECM Weekly (27 April 2026)-CATL, Victory Giant, Huaqin, MTT, Lightelligence, CICT, Sany

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CATL (300750 CH): Tactical Outlook After Discounted Share Placement Announcement

​CATL (300750 CH) fell 1.66% after the share placement announcement on Apr 27. Our quantitative model flagged the stock as DEEPLY OVERSOLD and...

Nico Rosti

CATL-H Placement: HSI and HSCEI Index Impact

CATL-H placement: we forecast HSI and HSCEI index impact from the 40% new free float shares across four review cycles, with HSCEI inclusion likely...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Aequitas: CATL H-Share Placement- Will Be Very Well Flagged US$5bn Deal but Last Deal Didn’t Do Well

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK) (CATL) is now looking to raise US$5bn via issuing new shares. In this note, we talk about the deal...

Sumeet Singh

CATL (3750 HK): Implications of Potential US$5bn Offering

CATL has reportedly launched a placement to raise around US$5bn. The price range is HK$628.20 to HK$$651.80 per share, a 3.5%–7% discount to the...

Brian Freitas

Aequitas ECM Weekly (27 April 2026)-CATL, Victory Giant, Huaqin, MTT, Lightelligence, CICT, Sany

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

CATL (300750 CH) fell 1.66% after the share placement announcement on Apr 27. Our quantitative model flagged the stock as DEEPLY OVERSOLD and...