Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

NASDAQ Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since January 2023 we've anticipated for 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.</li>
<li>In our 5/2/23 Compass we discussed how the Nasdaq Composite was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 is possible.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq Composite hit 13,154 Tuesday as Technology (XLK), and to a lesser extent Communications (XLC), are seemingly in a blowoff stage, while all other Sectors are neutral to bearish.</li>
</ul>


Since January 2023 we've anticipated for 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
In our 5/2/23 Compass we discussed how the Nasdaq Composite was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 is possible.
The Nasdaq Composite hit 13,154 Tuesday as Technology (XLK), and to a lesser extent Communications (XLC), are seemingly in a blowoff stage, while all other Sectors are neutral to bearish.


Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

Average weights among Frontier market countries stand at a combined 0.86%, with 42.5% of the EM funds in our analysis having some exposure to Frontier.  On a country level, Vietnam dominates, held by 19.6% of funds, followed by Kazakhstan and Panama.The most widely held stocks are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/copa-holdings-sa-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6110:1" rel="noopener">Copa Holdings Sa Class A (CPA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaspi-kz-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33382:1" rel="noopener">Kaspi.KZ JSC (KSPI LI)</a> , with 10.4% and 10% of funds invested respectively.On a fund level, openings in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaspi-kz-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33382:1" rel="noopener">Kaspi.KZ JSC (KSPI LI)</a> dominate the picture, with Carmignac Emerging Discovery, Fidelity and BlackRock opening positions, among others.  Closures in Nova Ljubljanska Banka from TT International, Goldman Sachs and Polar Capital are the stand outs.  Analysis taken from our Emerging Markets Research, covering 242 active GEM funds with combined AUM of $500bn

Average weights among Frontier market countries stand at a combined 0.86%, with 42.5% of the EM funds in our analysis having some exposure to Frontier.  On a country level, Vietnam dominates, held by 19.6% of funds, followed by Kazakhstan and Panama.The most widely held stocks are Copa Holdings Sa Class A (CPA US) and Kaspi.KZ JSC (KSPI LI) , with 10.4% and 10% of funds invested respectively.On a fund level, openings in Kaspi.KZ JSC (KSPI LI) dominate the picture, with Carmignac Emerging Discovery, Fidelity and BlackRock opening positions, among others.  Closures in Nova Ljubljanska Banka from TT International, Goldman Sachs and Polar Capital are the stand outs.  Analysis taken from our Emerging Markets Research, covering 242 active GEM funds with combined AUM of $500bn

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This has been a crazy market, with dollar, US market and oil strong at the same time, with commodities up in general, but on a hair trigger. It’s a weird mix. But one that pivoted energy plays from dogs to stars once again. Which, of course, could pivot them back down, though not all oil names are created equal.I see three or four streams in my oil plays: (1) energy majors which have been most stable in inching back or overtaking their January highs, (2) energy MLPs, which have recovered back a…

This has been a crazy market, with dollar, US market and oil strong at the same time, with commodities up in general, but on a hair trigger. It’s a weird mix. But one that pivoted energy plays from dogs to stars once again. Which, of course, could pivot them back down, though not all oil names are created equal.I see three or four streams in my oil plays: (1) energy majors which have been most stable in inching back or overtaking their January highs, (2) energy MLPs, which have recovered back a…

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Copa Holdings Sa Class A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Copa Holdings delivered a mixed yet robust performance in the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, illustrating its resilience and operational efficiency in a fluctuating market.</li><li>Positively, the company reported an operating margin of 21.9% for the year, which reflects consistent execution of its business model focused on cost efficiency and operational excellence.</li><li>An increase in capacity by 8.6% year-over-year was aligned with previous guidance.</li></ul>

Copa Holdings delivered a mixed yet robust performance in the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, illustrating its resilience and operational efficiency in a fluctuating market.Positively, the company reported an operating margin of 21.9% for the year, which reflects consistent execution of its business model focused on cost efficiency and operational excellence.An increase in capacity by 8.6% year-over-year was aligned with previous guidance.

Copa Airlines’ Bold Expansion Plan: 13 New Jets, Massive Profits, & Unstoppable Growth!

<ul><li>Copa Holdings has delivered solid financial performance for the third quarter of 2024, despite facing certain operational and market challenges.</li><li>The company achieved an operating margin of 20.3%, which is considered industry-leading.</li><li>This strong performance can be attributed to Copa's disciplined approach to its business strategy and focus on cost efficiency, allowing the company to manage through a softer yield environment.</li></ul>

Copa Holdings has delivered solid financial performance for the third quarter of 2024, despite facing certain operational and market challenges.The company achieved an operating margin of 20.3%, which is considered industry-leading.This strong performance can be attributed to Copa's disciplined approach to its business strategy and focus on cost efficiency, allowing the company to manage through a softer yield environment.

Copa Holdings: Strategic Redeployment & Network Adaptation Efforts Fueling Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

United States

Copa Holdings SA provides international airline passenger and cargo service. The Company provides scheduled flights to countries in North, Central and South America and the Caribbean. The Company also has codeshare arrangements with Continental Airlines.

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Copa Holdings Sa Class A (CPA US)

Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

5/2/23 we discussed how $Nasdaq Comp was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 was possible. It hit 13,154 Tuesday as...

Vermilion Research

Frontier Markets Exposure in EM Funds

With Argentina and Kuwait moving up to Emerging status, how are active EM investors positioned in the current crop of Frontier Markets?

Steven Holden

The Best Way to Play Oil with Cover

This has been a crazy market, with dollar, US market and oil strong at the same time, with commodities up in general, but on a hair trigger. It’s a...

Charles De Trenck

Copa Airlines’ Bold Expansion Plan: 13 New Jets, Massive Profits, & Unstoppable Growth!

Copa Holdings delivered a mixed yet robust performance in the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, illustrating its resilience and operational...

Baptista Research

Copa Holdings: Strategic Redeployment & Network Adaptation Efforts Fueling Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

Copa Holdings has delivered solid financial performance for the third quarter of 2024, despite facing certain operational and market...

Baptista Research

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