Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Commodities

<h3><strong>This Week's Key Take Aways</strong></h3>
<ul>
<li>Lithium stock run may already be out of steam</li>
<li>Like Oil, the Natural Gas markets appear well supplied and are showing near-term weakness.</li>
<li>No love for North American lumber</li>
<li>Copper continues to have us on edge, love the long-term story, but we have got to survive the short and medium term to get there.</li>
<li>Renewable tax credit qualification has a new physical work standard; the race is on to build.</li>
</ul>

This Week's Key Take Aways

Lithium stock run may already be out of steam
Like Oil, the Natural Gas markets appear well supplied and are showing near-term weakness.
No love for North American lumber
Copper continues to have us on edge, love the long-term story, but we have got to survive the short and medium term to get there.
Renewable tax credit qualification has a new physical work standard; the race is on to build.


Real Asset Chartbook Week #18: Lithium Blinks, Gas Slips, Copper Stalls—Who Survives the Grind?

<ul>
<li>Our commentary this week is more limited and slightly disjointed, as we are not seeing any clear narratives or themes to focus on.</li>
<li>Here are a few charts that caught our attention in flipping this week’s chartbook.</li>
<li>Our tactical breadth charts, specifically for metals and mining stocks, suggest that a reversal of the recent rise may be in the cards.</li>
</ul>


Our commentary this week is more limited and slightly disjointed, as we are not seeing any clear narratives or themes to focus on.
Here are a few charts that caught our attention in flipping this week’s chartbook.
Our tactical breadth charts, specifically for metals and mining stocks, suggest that a reversal of the recent rise may be in the cards.


Real Asset Chartbook Week #15: Copper Stocks, Railroad Mergers, and the History of US Trade Policy

<ul>
<li>Given the copper tariff announcement this week, it seemed worthwhile to sketch out where the US gets its copper from, as the situation is not nearly as dire as a 50% tariff makes it out to be.</li>
<li>We think a little context goes a long way in this situation and leads us to believe that the tariff is a wholly unnecessary impediment to a well-functioning market.</li>
<li>If Trump were serious about achieving self-sufficiency in copper, he would focus on permitting reform, as we have plenty of domestic copper and only lack the smelting/refining capacity.</li>
</ul>


Given the copper tariff announcement this week, it seemed worthwhile to sketch out where the US gets its copper from, as the situation is not nearly as dire as a 50% tariff makes it out to be.
We think a little context goes a long way in this situation and leads us to believe that the tariff is a wholly unnecessary impediment to a well-functioning market.
If Trump were serious about achieving self-sufficiency in copper, he would focus on permitting reform, as we have plenty of domestic copper and only lack the smelting/refining capacity.


Real Asset Chartbook Week #14: Big Week for Critical Metals and Missives on the History of US Trade

<ul><li>Two weeks ago, we flagged our Tanker Equity Basket as a potentially interesting place to look for opportunities.</li><li>The week after we flagged it, the basket bounced, presumably on events in the Middle East, and this week has given back most of those returns.</li><li>The basket has now fallen below the 10-day moving average and is bouncing along the 200-day moving average.</li></ul>

Two weeks ago, we flagged our Tanker Equity Basket as a potentially interesting place to look for opportunities.The week after we flagged it, the basket bounced, presumably on events in the Middle East, and this week has given back most of those returns.The basket has now fallen below the 10-day moving average and is bouncing along the 200-day moving average.

Real Asset Chartbook Week #13: The Copper Surge Continues

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The immediate post-Civil War period exemplifies a crucial pivot in U.S. trade policy. Trade policy that began as wartime fiscal expedients became permanent structural features. The Morrill tariff, enacted in 1861 primarily to finance the Union’s war effort, had notably raised average duties on dutiable imports to about 47 percent.</li>
<li>By 1865, this elevated tariff regime was entrenched, sustained by several intertwined forces. First, the federal government emerged from the war burdened with a staggering debt of approximately $2.7 billion, some 30 percent of GDP at the time.</li>
<li>This fiscal strain made cutting tariffs risky, as customs duties were vital for government revenue. Bondholders thus benefited from a generation of fiscal conservatism, while equity investors in protected domestic industries enjoyed durable shelter from foreign competition.</li>
</ul>


The immediate post-Civil War period exemplifies a crucial pivot in U.S. trade policy. Trade policy that began as wartime fiscal expedients became permanent structural features. The Morrill tariff, enacted in 1861 primarily to finance the Union’s war effort, had notably raised average duties on dutiable imports to about 47 percent.
By 1865, this elevated tariff regime was entrenched, sustained by several intertwined forces. First, the federal government emerged from the war burdened with a staggering debt of approximately $2.7 billion, some 30 percent of GDP at the time.
This fiscal strain made cutting tariffs risky, as customs duties were vital for government revenue. Bondholders thus benefited from a generation of fiscal conservatism, while equity investors in protected domestic industries enjoyed durable shelter from foreign competition.


Real Asset Chartbook Week #16: A Great Historian on the US and Trade Policy Following the Civil War

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

Real Asset Chartbook Week #18: Lithium Blinks, Gas Slips, Copper Stalls—Who Survives the Grind?

This Week's Key Take Aways Lithium stock run may already be out of steam Like Oil, the Natural Gas markets appear well supplied and are showing...

Massif Capital Research

Real Asset Chartbook Week #15: Copper Stocks, Railroad Mergers, and the History of US Trade Policy

Our commentary this week is more limited and slightly disjointed, as we are not seeing any clear narratives or themes to focus on. Here are a few...

Massif Capital Research

Real Asset Chartbook Week #14: Big Week for Critical Metals and Missives on the History of US Trade

Given the copper tariff announcement this week, it seemed worthwhile to sketch out where the US gets its copper from, as the situation is not...

Massif Capital Research

Real Asset Chartbook Week #13: The Copper Surge Continues

Two weeks ago, we flagged our Tanker Equity Basket as a potentially interesting place to look for opportunities. The week after we flagged it, the...

Massif Capital Research

Real Asset Chartbook Week #16: A Great Historian on the US and Trade Policy Following the Civil War

This was a short week for Massif Capital due to familial responsibilities, as such we are forgoing our usual introductory market commentary so we...

Massif Capital Research

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