Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>CTA Positioning Update The latest CTA picture by UBS shows that managed money is currently maxed long coffee and oil and max short corn, soybeans cotton and lean hogs.</li><li>The contrarian ideas would speculate on the exact opposite of this positioning. On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.</li><li>On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.</li></ul>

CTA Positioning Update The latest CTA picture by UBS shows that managed money is currently maxed long coffee and oil and max short corn, soybeans cotton and lean hogs.The contrarian ideas would speculate on the exact opposite of this positioning. On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.

The Return of La Niña // CTA Positioning Update

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Take aways: China will flood markets with copper supply</li>
<li>Copper har decoupled from macro fundamentals according to our PCA tool</li>
<li>It’s a tuck or war between positioning and fundamentals in metals. <span style="font-weight: 400;">Crude tumbling despite all time highs in global flight data and crowded congestion</span>
</li>
</ul>


Take aways: China will flood markets with copper supply
Copper har decoupled from macro fundamentals according to our PCA tool
It’s a tuck or war between positioning and fundamentals in metals. Crude tumbling despite all time highs in global flight data and crowded congestion



Energy Cable: More pain to come in copper, while Nat Gas is a long trade?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Today, I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.</li><li>These are the key questions I will address, and I will summarize both the pros and cons of each viewpoint, including my own bottom line: Is liquidity no longer improving, but rather at risk of weakening in the coming months? Is the economy accelerating rather than slowing? Is the commodity complex heavily undervalued or overvalued?</li><li>The equity rotation paired with the sharp sell-off in Tech has had me thinking, and we therefore need to litmus-test every corner of our current thesis. Follow along below.</li></ul>

Today, I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.These are the key questions I will address, and I will summarize both the pros and cons of each viewpoint, including my own bottom line: Is liquidity no longer improving, but rather at risk of weakening in the coming months? Is the economy accelerating rather than slowing? Is the commodity complex heavily undervalued or overvalued?The equity rotation paired with the sharp sell-off in Tech has had me thinking, and we therefore need to litmus-test every corner of our current thesis. Follow along below.

Steno Signals #109 – What if We Are All Wrong on Liquidity, Rates and Commodities?

<ul><li>After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.</li><li>Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.</li><li>Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.</li></ul>

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

<ul><li>Good Afternoon from Europe. It’s incredibly hard for me not to begin this weekly EM blog by emphasizing how bearish I am becoming on Copper, given the current developments out of China.</li><li>Chinese trends are diverging rapidly both internally and externally—the export sectors are performing well, while internal consumption growth is far from firing on all cylinders.</li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ahead of the conclusion of the CCP Plenum, we noted that China Daily posted several upbeat stories on the GDP outlook following the release of a slightly disappointing Q2 report.</span></li></ul>

Good Afternoon from Europe. It’s incredibly hard for me not to begin this weekly EM blog by emphasizing how bearish I am becoming on Copper, given the current developments out of China.Chinese trends are diverging rapidly both internally and externally—the export sectors are performing well, while internal consumption growth is far from firing on all cylinders.Ahead of the conclusion of the CCP Plenum, we noted that China Daily posted several upbeat stories on the GDP outlook following the release of a slightly disappointing Q2 report.

EM Watch: China FLOODS global copper markets amidst the plenum

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

The Return of La Niña // CTA Positioning Update

CTA Positioning Update The latest CTA picture by UBS shows that managed money is currently maxed long coffee and oil and max short corn, soybeans...

The Commodity Report

Energy Cable: More pain to come in copper, while Nat Gas is a long trade?

Take aways: China will flood markets with copper supplyCopper har decoupled from macro fundamentals according to our PCA toolIt’s a tuck or war...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #109 – What if We Are All Wrong on Liquidity, Rates and Commodities?

I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.

Steno Research

EM Watch: China FLOODS global copper markets amidst the plenum

Good Afternoon from Europe. It’s incredibly hard for me not to begin this weekly EM blog by emphasizing how bearish I am becoming on Copper, given...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)