Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.</li><li>The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.</li><li>Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.</li></ul>

Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to converging pressures.</li><li>It is essential to embrace the diversity in the EM space here.</li><li>I have been advocating throughout the early spring that EM’s were ahead and would be the first rate-cutters in this cycle and the LatAm carry trade will likely take in water in the aftermath – while the rate cuts have largely aligned with my expectations (which preceded market pricing I might add), the punishment in foreign exchange has been harsher and quicker than I anticipated.</li></ul>

As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to converging pressures.It is essential to embrace the diversity in the EM space here.I have been advocating throughout the early spring that EM’s were ahead and would be the first rate-cutters in this cycle and the LatAm carry trade will likely take in water in the aftermath – while the rate cuts have largely aligned with my expectations (which preceded market pricing I might add), the punishment in foreign exchange has been harsher and quicker than I anticipated.

EM BY EM #16 Counting coppers and rating cuts

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline US weekly oil inventories (ex SPR) fell by over 17 million barrels, as last weeks EIA data showed.</li><li>This draw marked the largest weekly drop in history and shows that the US demand for oil remains strong - this fits an (at least in the mid-term) improving economic momentum picture that we painted in our latest macro outlook.</li><li>Meanwhile, the divergence between the price of crude (reversed line in red) and the inventory data (black line) remains quite large.</li></ul>

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline US weekly oil inventories (ex SPR) fell by over 17 million barrels, as last weeks EIA data showed.This draw marked the largest weekly drop in history and shows that the US demand for oil remains strong - this fits an (at least in the mid-term) improving economic momentum picture that we painted in our latest macro outlook.Meanwhile, the divergence between the price of crude (reversed line in red) and the inventory data (black line) remains quite large.

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline

<ul><li>The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost the country's ailing property sector.</li><li>But it didn't give much detail or signal any major measures as some commodity traders had hoped.</li><li>This uncertainty was also perfectly displayed in the price action of copper.</li></ul>

The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost the country's ailing property sector.But it didn't give much detail or signal any major measures as some commodity traders had hoped.This uncertainty was also perfectly displayed in the price action of copper.

Stocks Vs. Commodities Ratio // China Wants to Boost Its Property Sector (But How)

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.</li>
<li>The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.</li>
<li>In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.
The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.
In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.


Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility...

Steno Research

EM BY EM #16 Counting coppers and rating cuts

As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to...

Steno Research

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline US weekly oil inventories (ex SPR) fell by over 17 million barrels, as last weeks EIA data showed.

The Commodity Report

Stocks Vs. Commodities Ratio // China Wants to Boost Its Property Sector (But How)

The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost...

The Commodity Report

Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

Happy Saturday, and welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)