Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Multiple index families rebalance at the close today, driving huge flows across Australian stocks. Estimates indicate over A$5bn to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Among index adds, we see large flows in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eq-resources-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14984:1" rel="noopener">EQ Resources (EQR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codan-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6189:1" rel="noopener">Codan (CDA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunrise-energy-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11810:1" rel="noopener">Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Among index deletes, the largest flows are in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cochlear-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:918:1" rel="noopener">Cochlear (COH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/graincorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18531:1" rel="noopener">Graincorp (GNC AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amalgamated-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20978:1" rel="noopener">Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Multiple index families rebalance at the close today, driving huge flows across Australian stocks. Estimates indicate over A$5bn to trade from passive trackers.
Among index adds, we see large flows in EQ Resources (EQR AU), Codan (CDA AU), Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU) and Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU). 
Among index deletes, the largest flows are in Evolution Mining (EVN AU), Atlas Arteria (ALX AU), Cochlear (COH AU), Graincorp (GNC AU) and Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU). 


Australia: A$5bn+ to Trade at the Close Today Across Local & Global Indices

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eq-resources-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14984:1" rel="noopener">EQ Resources (EQR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> at the close on 18 September.</li>
<li>The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.7% and in a round-trip trade of US$514m.</li>
<li>Other passive index trackers will be buying significant size in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eq-resources-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14984:1" rel="noopener">EQ Resources (EQR AU)</a> and smaller size in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)</a> at the same time.</li>
</ul>



EQ Resources (EQR AU) and Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) at the close on 18 September.
The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.7% and in a round-trip trade of US$514m.
Other passive index trackers will be buying significant size in EQ Resources (EQR AU) and smaller size in Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) at the same time.


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Multiple Flows for the Adds

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 changes for the ASX50, 1 for the ASX100, 6 for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 16 adds/11 deletes for the ASX300 in September.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 indices.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months, but outperformance has reduced for the ASX50/ASX200 indices and has increased for the ASX100/ASX300 indices.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 changes for the ASX50, 1 for the ASX100, 6 for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 16 adds/11 deletes for the ASX300 in September.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 indices.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months, but outperformance has reduced for the ASX50/ASX200 indices and has increased for the ASX100/ASX300 indices.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pls-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">PLS Group (PLS AU)</a> missed being added to a global index in February. There is a much better chance of being added to the same index in May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pls-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">PLS Group (PLS AU)</a> was added to the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index in March and that will result in passive global trackers needing to buy more of the real float.</li>
<li>Cumulative excess volume has increased in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pls-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">PLS Group (PLS AU)</a>, but we see a similar trend in its peers that do not have any upcoming passive flows.</li>
</ul>



PLS Group (PLS AU) missed being added to a global index in February. There is a much better chance of being added to the same index in May.

PLS Group (PLS AU) was added to the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index in March and that will result in passive global trackers needing to buy more of the real float.
Cumulative excess volume has increased in PLS Group (PLS AU), but we see a similar trend in its peers that do not have any upcoming passive flows.


PLS Group (PLS AU): High Probability of Global Index Inclusion in May

<ul>
<li>There could be 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX50, 3 for the ASX100, 4 for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and 17 adds/10 deletes for the ASX300 in March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>While the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months, there was a drawdown for most indices in January. Most of that underperformance has now reversed.</li>
</ul>


There could be 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX50, 3 for the ASX100, 4 for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 17 adds/10 deletes for the ASX300 in March.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
While the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months, there was a drawdown for most indices in January. Most of that underperformance has now reversed.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

Australia

Core Lithium Ltd operates as a mineral exploration company. The Company explores and mines finniss lithium resources. Core Lithium serves customers in Australia.

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Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)

Australia: A$5bn+ to Trade at the Close Today Across Local & Global Indices

Multiple index families rebalance in Oz at the close today. Estimated passive trading is A$5bn+. Shorts have built up in a lot of stocks and there...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Multiple Flows for the Adds

There are 2 adds in Sep. The constituent, float, capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.7% and in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

There could be 45 changes across the ASX family of indices in Sept. Passive trackers need to trade a lot of stock in many names. Short interest is...

Brian Freitas

PLS Group (PLS AU): High Probability of Global Index Inclusion in May

PLS Group is a high probability global index inclusion in May. The stock price has jumped and shorts have been covering. Positioning is up in the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

There could be 46 changes across the ASX family of indices in March. Passive trackers need to trade a lot of stock in many names. Some names are...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Australia: A$5bn+ to Trade at the Close Today Across Local & Global Indices

Multiple index families rebalance in Oz at the close today. Estimated passive trading is A$5bn+. Shorts have built up in a lot of stocks and there...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Multiple Flows for the Adds

There are 2 adds in Sep. The constituent, float, capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.7% and in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

There could be 45 changes across the ASX family of indices in Sept. Passive trackers need to trade a lot of stock in many names. Short interest is...

Brian Freitas

PLS Group (PLS AU): High Probability of Global Index Inclusion in May

PLS Group is a high probability global index inclusion in May. The stock price has jumped and shorts have been covering. Positioning is up in the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

There could be 46 changes across the ASX family of indices in March. Passive trackers need to trade a lot of stock in many names. Some names are...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Multiple Flows for the Adds

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact