Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) / Equity Bottom-Up

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H)

<ul>
<li>The Supply/ Demand imbalance in tankers will persist for longer, supporting earnings</li>
<li>A beneficiary of increased global tensions and higher oil and gas prices</li>
<li>Proposed Stock option scheme incentives management in the right way</li>
</ul>


The Supply/ Demand imbalance in tankers will persist for longer, supporting earnings
A beneficiary of increased global tensions and higher oil and gas prices
Proposed Stock option scheme incentives management in the right way


Cosco Shipping Energy 1138.HK - Higher for Longer

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Despite YTD strengths in share price, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)</a> is still cheap at 5.7x PER and 0.9x P/B.</li>
<li>VLCC is forecast to stay undersupplied in FY24 and FY25, supporting the rates and CSET's profitability. YTD, the VLCC rates have recovered by 19.5%.</li>
<li>LNG transportation generated 19% of FY23 earnings. With 40 more vessels on order, compared with a current fleet of 43, there is immense upside from this segment.</li>
</ul>


Despite YTD strengths in share price, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK) is still cheap at 5.7x PER and 0.9x P/B.
VLCC is forecast to stay undersupplied in FY24 and FY25, supporting the rates and CSET's profitability. YTD, the VLCC rates have recovered by 19.5%.
LNG transportation generated 19% of FY23 earnings. With 40 more vessels on order, compared with a current fleet of 43, there is immense upside from this segment.


COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Surfing the High Tide

<ul>
<li>The 20% retreat in the share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK)</a> from the peak has well reflected the plunge in 3Q23 VLCC rates and 10% earnings downgrade.</li>
<li>4Q23 VLCC rates have rebounded 78.4% QoQ. Re-routing due to recent Houthi attacks on commercial ships at the Red Sea has reduced effective supply and is positive to rates.</li>
<li>Heightened energy security needs will drive demand. The medium-term supply pressure is mild as the VLCC orderbook equals just 2% of the existing fleet, fueling ROE for FY23-25F. </li>
</ul>


The 20% retreat in the share price of Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK) from the peak has well reflected the plunge in 3Q23 VLCC rates and 10% earnings downgrade.
4Q23 VLCC rates have rebounded 78.4% QoQ. Re-routing due to recent Houthi attacks on commercial ships at the Red Sea has reduced effective supply and is positive to rates.
Heightened energy security needs will drive demand. The medium-term supply pressure is mild as the VLCC orderbook equals just 2% of the existing fleet, fueling ROE for FY23-25F. 


COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Time for Another Look

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK)</a> has rallied sharply on strong earnings recovery, but this is too excessive. We think unrealistic expectation has been built on 2H23 earnings.</li>
<li>Over the last three months, the spot VLCC rate has collapsed by 90%, indicating a weakened demand outlook. The resilient share price has clearly not yet factored in this movement. </li>
<li>The recent surge in crude oil is driven by supply, not demand, factors. This has led to a 14% increase in bunker price which will heighten CSET's fuel bill.  </li>
</ul>



Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK) has rallied sharply on strong earnings recovery, but this is too excessive. We think unrealistic expectation has been built on 2H23 earnings.
Over the last three months, the spot VLCC rate has collapsed by 90%, indicating a weakened demand outlook. The resilient share price has clearly not yet factored in this movement. 
The recent surge in crude oil is driven by supply, not demand, factors. This has led to a 14% increase in bunker price which will heighten CSET's fuel bill.  


COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Clearly Over-Optimistic

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK)</a> rallied 12.5% in the last two trading days after issuing a FY22 positive profit alert, but we are concerned that momentum is peaking. </li>
<li>Its P/B of 0.92x is 4SD above average since 2016, more than sufficient to reflect rebound in FY23-24F profitability. Meanwhile, VLCC rate has plunged 80% in the last 3 months.  </li>
<li>We believe CSET is already midway in the upcycle which normally lasts for 2-3 years. With high 4Q22 profit difficult to sustain for long, there is downside risk on earnings.  </li>
</ul>



Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (1138 HK) rallied 12.5% in the last two trading days after issuing a FY22 positive profit alert, but we are concerned that momentum is peaking. 
Its P/B of 0.92x is 4SD above average since 2016, more than sufficient to reflect rebound in FY23-24F profitability. Meanwhile, VLCC rate has plunged 80% in the last 3 months.  
We believe CSET is already midway in the upcycle which normally lasts for 2-3 years. With high 4Q22 profit difficult to sustain for long, there is downside risk on earnings.  


COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Beware of Momentum Peaking

China

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. offers marine shipping services. The Company provides refined oil transportation, crude oil transportation, and other services. COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation also ships iron ores, dry bulks, coal, and other products.

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)

Cosco Shipping Energy 1138.HK - Higher for Longer

Tanker market imbalance to continue, boosting earnings; global tensions and higher prices benefit the company; stock option scheme incentivizes...

Rikki Malik

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Surfing the High Tide

Despite strong share price performance YTD, CSET remains cheap on PER and P/B ratios. VLCC market undersupply and growth in LNG transportation...

Osbert Tang, CFA

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Time for Another Look

The Red Sea crisis will continue to bode well for tanker demand as well as negatively impact capacity supply. CSET has rallied 25% from its recent...

Osbert Tang, CFA

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Clearly Over-Optimistic

CSET's rally is excessive as the market has built up unrealistic expectations on 2H23 earnings. A weakened demand outlook and higher fuel cost...

Osbert Tang, CFA

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Beware of Momentum Peaking

CSET's stretched P/B of 0.92x (4SD above average) has well reflected expectation of strong profit recovery. With VLCC rate collapsed in the last 3...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Cosco Shipping Energy 1138.HK - Higher for Longer

​Tanker market imbalance to continue, boosting earnings; global tensions and higher prices benefit the company; stock option scheme incentivizes...

Rikki Malik

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Surfing the High Tide

​Despite strong share price performance YTD, CSET remains cheap on PER and P/B ratios. VLCC market undersupply and growth in LNG transportation...

Osbert Tang, CFA

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Time for Another Look

The Red Sea crisis will continue to bode well for tanker demand as well as negatively impact capacity supply. CSET has rallied 25% from its recent...

Osbert Tang, CFA

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Clearly Over-Optimistic

​CSET's rally is excessive as the market has built up unrealistic expectations on 2H23 earnings. A weakened demand outlook and higher fuel cost...

Osbert Tang, CFA

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Beware of Momentum Peaking

CSET's stretched P/B of 0.92x (4SD above average) has well reflected expectation of strong profit recovery. With VLCC rate collapsed in the last 3...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tanker market imbalance to continue, boosting earnings; global tensions and higher prices benefit the company; stock option scheme incentivizes...

Despite strong share price performance YTD, CSET remains cheap on PER and P/B ratios. VLCC market undersupply and growth in LNG transportation...

CSET's rally is excessive as the market has built up unrealistic expectations on 2H23 earnings. A weakened demand outlook and higher fuel cost...