HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) / Equity Bottom-Up

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H)

<ul>
<li>We think the FY21 massive losses of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)</a> is a non-event, as reflected by the muted share price reaction following the pre-announcement. </li>
<li>The huge impairment charges have positive implications as vessel values are reduced and earnings expectations have trimmed. This will lower the hurdle for CSET in the next two years. </li>
<li>Focus should be on potential upside factors including recovery of tanker rate, higher LNG transportation contribution, rebound in vessel price and disposal gains and higher cost management incentives. </li>
</ul>


We think the FY21 massive losses of Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK) is a non-event, as reflected by the muted share price reaction following the pre-announcement. 
The huge impairment charges have positive implications as vessel values are reduced and earnings expectations have trimmed. This will lower the hurdle for CSET in the next two years. 
Focus should be on potential upside factors including recovery of tanker rate, higher LNG transportation contribution, rebound in vessel price and disposal gains and higher cost management incentives. 


COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): When All the Bad News Is Out...

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 135 stocks over the last week.</li>
<li>Industrial, Energy and Communication Services were the top three sectors contributing to the A/H premium declines. </li>
<li>Yet 4 names are at 52 week high of A/H premium: Air China Ltd, Guangshen Railway, Shenzhen HepaLink, Beijing North Star.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 135 stocks over the last week.
Industrial, Energy and Communication Services were the top three sectors contributing to the A/H premium declines. 
Yet 4 names are at 52 week high of A/H premium: Air China Ltd, Guangshen Railway, Shenzhen HepaLink, Beijing North Star.


A/H Premium Weekly: Biggest A/H Premium Declines in a Year

<ul>
<li>VLCC rate has moved up in 4Q21 but share price has not - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)</a> presents an interesting opportunity at just 0.4x P/B. </li>
<li>A bad 3Q21 result and a weak FY21 should be well reflected in the share price, but there are upside from things being less bad, fuelled by stronger oil demand.</li>
<li>CSET will also benefit from the structural trend of more oil export from US to China and the rise in scrapping of aged vessels in the medium term.</li>
</ul>


VLCC rate has moved up in 4Q21 but share price has not - Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK) presents an interesting opportunity at just 0.4x P/B. 
A bad 3Q21 result and a weak FY21 should be well reflected in the share price, but there are upside from things being less bad, fuelled by stronger oil demand.
CSET will also benefit from the structural trend of more oil export from US to China and the rise in scrapping of aged vessels in the medium term.


COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Return Looks like Well Worth the Risk

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With the Hang Seng Index pulled back by 8.6% from its recent high in late-Jun, we take a look on our universe to identify the key opportunities and risks in our coverage.  In our view, the three stocks that look attractive after the recent market retreat are: 1.) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a>, 2.) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a>. On average, they are off 9.8% from the recent peak.The three stocks to avoid are: 1.) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)</a>, 2.) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-international-airport-bcia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10626:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK)</a> and 3.) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-maple-leaf-educational" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:78:1" rel="noopener">China Maple Leaf Educational Systems (1317 HK)</a>. They have declined an average of 20.2% from their peak, and despite the low valuations, fundamentals remain unappealing.

With the Hang Seng Index pulled back by 8.6% from its recent high in late-Jun, we take a look on our universe to identify the key opportunities and risks in our coverage.  In our view, the three stocks that look attractive after the recent market retreat are: 1.) Sinotrans (598 HK), 2.) Kunlun Energy (135 HK) and Shenzhen International (152 HK). On average, they are off 9.8% from the recent peak.The three stocks to avoid are: 1.) Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK), 2.) Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK) and 3.) China Maple Leaf Educational Systems (1317 HK). They have declined an average of 20.2% from their peak, and despite the low valuations, fundamentals remain unappealing.  

Three Stocks Look Attractive and Three to Avoid Amid the Sell-Off

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June. The review announcement for the September 2021 review should be made on 13 August and will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.Although there are almost no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors.We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI at the rebalance and 15 potential deletions, plus another 7 close deletions. Only 10 of the potential deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect buy list since the other deletions are either not a part of Stock Connect currently or have listed A-shares.The inclusions to the HSCI outperformed the deletions at the March rebalance from review cut-off to announcement of the changes before giving by some of the gains to implementation and then some more for the 1 month post the implementation of the changes.

Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June. The review announcement for the September 2021 review should be made on 13 August and will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.Although there are almost no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors.We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI at the rebalance and 15 potential deletions, plus another 7 close deletions. Only 10 of the potential deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect buy list since the other deletions are either not a part of Stock Connect currently or have listed A-shares.The inclusions to the HSCI outperformed the deletions at the March rebalance from review cut-off to announcement of the changes before giving by some of the gains to implementation and then some more for the 1 month post the implementation of the changes.

HSCI Index Rebalance & Stock Connect: Expected Changes in September

China

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. offers marine shipping services. The Company provides refined oil transportation, crude oil transportation, and other services. COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation also ships iron ores, dry bulks, coal, and other products.

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)

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Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): When All the Bad News Is Out...

FY21 is a bad year for CSET, but we see the huge losses and impariments pave the way for better earnings going forward. Focus should be on the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A/H Premium Weekly: Biggest A/H Premium Declines in a Year

The market average A/H premium registered the biggest declines in the past one year. We highlight top sectors by the decline of A/H premium, as...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Return Looks like Well Worth the Risk

CSET's trough multiple seems to have factored in most of the bad news, but not the upturn in VLCC rates in 4Q21. We think return looks compelling...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Three Stocks Look Attractive and Three to Avoid Amid the Sell-Off

We think the three stocks that look attractive after the recent market retreat are: 1.) Sinotrans (598 HK), 2.) Kunlun Energy (135 HK) and Shenzhen...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance & Stock Connect: Expected Changes in September

Currently we see 28 potential inclusions & 22 deletions from the HSCI at the Sep rebalance. Most of the inclusions will join Stock Connect while...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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