Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

Orient Overseas (International) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Price momentum and volume growth both remained weak in September </li>
<li>Mideast ceasefire raises possibility of Suez Canal re-opening in 2026</li>
<li>Expect pricing to remain weak; Suez re-start would likely lead to losses</li>
</ul>


Price momentum and volume growth both remained weak in September 
Mideast ceasefire raises possibility of Suez Canal re-opening in 2026
Expect pricing to remain weak; Suez re-start would likely lead to losses


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Momentum, Volume Still Weak | Suez Restoration? (October 2025)

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

<ul>
<li>Recently there have been rumors ZIM could be taken private by management</li>
<li>ZIM issued a 'no comment' but its board has reportedly hired bankers</li>
<li>We think a bid from a non-Israeli source is quite unlikely in the near-term</li>
</ul>


Recently there have been rumors ZIM could be taken private by management
ZIM issued a 'no comment' but its board has reportedly hired bankers
We think a bid from a non-Israeli source is quite unlikely in the near-term


Addressing Go-Private Rumors Surrounding ZIM | Near-Term, We Think a Transaction Is Unlikely

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

MMC Port Holdings Berhad / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Largest Malaysian IPO in over a decade – MMC Port seeks to raise ~RM8.5bn (~US$2bn) at ~RM30bn valuation via an Offer-for-Sale; no new capital raised.</li>
<li>Strong catalysts but yield/mix risks – Tariff hikes (+30% by 2027) and Gemini alliance (Maersk–Hapag) boost near-term throughput, but high transshipment share (73%) pressures yields.</li>
<li>IPO Structure: Offer-for-Sale of up to 30%; no new proceeds for the company, making capital allocation and leverage management important post-listing</li>
</ul>


Largest Malaysian IPO in over a decade – MMC Port seeks to raise ~RM8.5bn (~US$2bn) at ~RM30bn valuation via an Offer-for-Sale; no new capital raised.
Strong catalysts but yield/mix risks – Tariff hikes (+30% by 2027) and Gemini alliance (Maersk–Hapag) boost near-term throughput, but high transshipment share (73%) pressures yields.
IPO Structure: Offer-for-Sale of up to 30%; no new proceeds for the company, making capital allocation and leverage management important post-listing


MMC Port Holdings – IPO Overview and Investment Considerations

<ul>
<li>In Q225, Evergreen Marine reported a -56% Y/Y decline in Operating Profit</li>
<li>That's bad, but our initial read indicates Q325 will likely be far worse</li>
<li>Y/Y, shares still <em>up</em> slightly; we see lots of downside for container carriers</li>
</ul>


In Q225, Evergreen Marine reported a -56% Y/Y decline in Operating Profit
That's bad, but our initial read indicates Q325 will likely be far worse
Y/Y, shares still up slightly; we see lots of downside for container carriers


Evergreen Marine Reported -56% Y/Y Decline in Q225 OP | But Q325 Is Likely to Be Much Worse

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-ports-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:360:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK)</a> is a major beneficiary of its parent's potential 20-30% stake in the consortium to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>'s port portfolio. </li>
<li>A potential injection of such assets from its parent will enhance its profitability, diversify its throughput mix, and expand its geographical coverage in the future. </li>
<li>Its 8.3x PER and 0.43x P/B are not expensive relative to earnings outlook and ROE. The strong 1Q25 and upcoming 1H25 results mean earnings upgrade potential. </li>
</ul>



Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK) is a major beneficiary of its parent's potential 20-30% stake in the consortium to acquire CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)'s port portfolio. 
A potential injection of such assets from its parent will enhance its profitability, diversify its throughput mix, and expand its geographical coverage in the future. 
Its 8.3x PER and 0.43x P/B are not expensive relative to earnings outlook and ROE. The strong 1Q25 and upcoming 1H25 results mean earnings upgrade potential. 


COSCO Shipping Ports (1199 HK): Potential Involvement in CKH's Port Sale

Hong Kong

COSCO SHIPPING Ports is a leading global port logistics service provider and investor in ports. The company primarily engages in container terminal operations, container manufacturing and leasing, shipping agency, and freight forwarding, operating and managing terminals worldwide. It was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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COSCO SHIPPING Ports (1199 HK)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Momentum, Volume Still Weak | Suez Restoration? (October 2025)

Price momentum and North American inbound demand both remained weak in September, and we believe a new ceasefire raises the likelihood of a Suez...

Tracking Traffic

Addressing Go-Private Rumors Surrounding ZIM | Near-Term, We Think a Transaction Is Unlikely

Despite the rumors floating around in Israel's financial media, we believe a go-private deal for Israeli deep-sea container carrier ZIM is unlikely...

Tracking Traffic

MMC Port Holdings – IPO Overview and Investment Considerations

Largest Malaysian IPO in a decade as MMC Port seeks to raise $2bn at $6.9bn valuation through Offer-for-Sale, facing yield/mix risks with high...

Rahul Jain

Evergreen Marine Reported -56% Y/Y Decline in Q225 OP | But Q325 Is Likely to Be Much Worse

Taiwan's Evergreen Marine reported a steep -56% Y/Y decline in Operating Profit in Q225, but based on their monthly revenues in July-August, we...

Tracking Traffic