Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>JUNE CONTINUED TREND OF NEAR-ZERO THROUGHPUT GROWTH</h2><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15155" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15155:1">China Merchants Port Holdings Company Ltd. (144 HK)</a> recently reported June container throughput figures. The company's Chinese terminals open for at least one year reported throughput growth of just 1.3% YoY last month. Even compared to lackluster Chinese GDP Q2 growth of 6.7%, it's a poor result, but H1 2016 performance was actually worse, with throughput down -1% YoY. In this note we examine the secular trend of slowing growth of Chinese…

JUNE CONTINUED TREND OF NEAR-ZERO THROUGHPUT GROWTHChina Merchants Port Holdings Company Ltd. (144 HK) recently reported June container throughput figures. The company's Chinese terminals open for at least one year reported throughput growth of just 1.3% YoY last month. Even compared to lackluster Chinese GDP Q2 growth of 6.7%, it's a poor result, but H1 2016 performance was actually worse, with throughput down -1% YoY. In this note we examine the secular trend of slowing growth of Chinese…

Is China's Container Traffic Going Ex-Growth? Update on China Merchants Port Holdings 144:HK

CMHI (144:HK) has released May throughput figures for its network of container terminals, and traffic remains weak. We remain negative on CMHI's fundamentals and retain our HK$18.50 target price.Overall traffic at all CMHI terminals in May grew by an impressive 12.3%, and traffic at Chinese terminals increased by 15%. However, a closer look shows that throughput at terminals open / controlled by CMHI at least a year actually shrank: overall organic throughput fell by -1.1% YoY in May, and at…

CMHI (144:HK) has released May throughput figures for its network of container terminals, and traffic remains weak. We remain negative on CMHI's fundamentals and retain our HK$18.50 target price.Overall traffic at all CMHI terminals in May grew by an impressive 12.3%, and traffic at Chinese terminals increased by 15%. However, a closer look shows that throughput at terminals open / controlled by CMHI at least a year actually shrank: overall organic throughput fell by -1.1% YoY in May, and at…

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

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Cosco Pacific, has became a pure port operator following a successful restructure, by swapping the challenging container-leasing business with relative resilient port assets.It is now the world's second-largest container terminal operator and investor, dominating 12% market share, with overall throughput of 79 million 20-foot equivalent units.Analyst: Jennifer Song

Cosco Pacific, has became a pure port operator following a successful restructure, by swapping the challenging container-leasing business with relative resilient port assets.It is now the world's second-largest container terminal operator and investor, dominating 12% market share, with overall throughput of 79 million 20-foot equivalent units.Analyst: Jennifer Song

High-Quality and Well-Located Assets Support Higher Growth, While Massive Investment Weighs on ROIC.

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Reasonable port valuation supports M&amp;A activities<figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/005/443/original/ports5.JPG?1454570524" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="5443"></figure>Note: Market-weighted EV/EBITDA ticked higher from FY14 level of 14.8x to 15.0x Source: Bloomberg, DMER<figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/005/444/original/ports6.JPG?1454570793" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="5444"></figure> Source: Company, DMER• As the global trade growth moderates, we expect significant volatility to persist in the year ahead. Port companies with sturdy balance sheet will be favoured over growth companies. Debt servicing ratio is expected to trend lower on higher interest and faltering earnings. Therefore, we look for terminal operators with…

Reasonable port valuation supports M&amp;A activitiesNote: Market-weighted EV/EBITDA ticked higher from FY14 level of 14.8x to 15.0x Source: Bloomberg, DMER Source: Company, DMER• As the global trade growth moderates, we expect significant volatility to persist in the year ahead. Port companies with sturdy balance sheet will be favoured over growth companies. Debt servicing ratio is expected to trend lower on higher interest and faltering earnings. Therefore, we look for terminal operators with…

Global Port Operators - Reasonable Valuation Supports M&A Activities

Intensifying concerns about China as it registered its slowest growth since 1990 set the tone for a roller-coaster ride in 2016. The largest emerging country expanded 6.9%y/y in 2015, prompting the IMF to slash its global growth forecast for the third time in less than a year. Drewry Port Index fell 14% in the first three weeks of trading. The divergence between MSCI World and Drewry Port Index is the greatest since January 2015, pointing to a value buy for the port index compared with a year ago.

Intensifying concerns about China as it registered its slowest growth since 1990 set the tone for a roller-coaster ride in 2016. The largest emerging country expanded 6.9%y/y in 2015, prompting the IMF to slash its global growth forecast for the third time in less than a year. Drewry Port Index fell 14% in the first three weeks of trading. The divergence between MSCI World and Drewry Port Index is the greatest since January 2015, pointing to a value buy for the port index compared with a year ago.

Port Operators 2016 - Sieve Out Value Companies Amid Slowing Trade Growth

Hong Kong

COSCO Shipping Ports Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides shipping container leasing services worldwide.  The Company also operates container terminals and provides container handling, storage, transportation and management services, as well as depot handling and stevedoring services.

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Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK)

Is China's Container Traffic Going Ex-Growth? Update on China Merchants Port Holdings 144:HK

JUNE CONTINUED TREND OF NEAR-ZERO THROUGHPUT GROWTHChina Merchants Port Holdings Company Ltd. (144 HK) recently reported June container throughput...

Daniel Hellberg

May Throughput at CMHI Remains Weak

CMHI (144:HK) has released May throughput figures for its network of container terminals, and traffic remains weak. We remain negative on CMHI's...

Daniel Hellberg

High-Quality and Well-Located Assets Support Higher Growth, While Massive Investment Weighs on ROIC.

Cosco Pacific, has became a pure port operator following a successful restructure, by swapping the challenging container-leasing business with...

Morningstar, Inc.

Global Port Operators - Reasonable Valuation Supports M&A Activities

Reasonable port valuation supports M&A activitiesNote: Market-weighted EV/EBITDA ticked higher from FY14 level of 14.8x to 15.0xSource:...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Port Operators 2016 - Sieve Out Value Companies Amid Slowing Trade Growth

Intensifying concerns about China as it registered its slowest growth since 1990 set the tone for a roller-coaster ride in 2016. The largest...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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