Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Matsumotokiyoshi and Cocokara Fine merger is now complete following almost two years of dealing, planning and company bonding.</li>
<li>The combined business creates the single biggest drugstore group in Japan, although the Tokyo-based partners have lost ground in the past year while others have grown strongly.</li>
<li>As a result, the lead is smaller than they previously expected – and will likely get smaller still. The good news is that profits should soar.</li>
</ul>


The Matsumotokiyoshi and Cocokara Fine merger is now complete following almost two years of dealing, planning and company bonding.
The combined business creates the single biggest drugstore group in Japan, although the Tokyo-based partners have lost ground in the past year while others have grown strongly.
As a result, the lead is smaller than they previously expected – and will likely get smaller still. The good news is that profits should soar.


<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> remains Japan’s largest drugstore group and continues to expand relentlessly. In addition to breaking 2,200 stores, last year it hired a large proportion of all the newly qualified pharmacists in Japan. The cost of this has caused some analysts to worry about short-term profitability, but if it can keep up the pace (and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a>, its parent, will ensure it does), competitors may find it hard to keep up.

Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) remains Japan’s largest drugstore group and continues to expand relentlessly. In addition to breaking 2,200 stores, last year it hired a large proportion of all the newly qualified pharmacists in Japan. The cost of this has caused some analysts to worry about short-term profitability, but if it can keep up the pace (and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP), its parent, will ensure it does), competitors may find it hard to keep up.

There are few discount supermarkets in Japan and the largest by far is Kobe Bussan’s Gyomu Super franchise chain.
Despite its no frills presentation and reliance on frozen foods, over the past 12 months, prices that are up to half that charged at mainstream chains have drawn in more customers and across a wider age range.
The company is now expecting yet another record performance this year.
When we first recommend Kobe Bussan in October 2018, the share price stood at around ¥780 and has risen to ¥4,080 since. This isn't cheap but given the five year growth potential, we remain bullish about the fundamentals long-term.

There are few discount supermarkets in Japan and the largest by far is Kobe Bussan’s Gyomu Super franchise chain.
Despite its no frills presentation and reliance on frozen foods, over the past 12 months, prices that are up to half that charged at mainstream chains have drawn in more customers and across a wider age range.
The company is now expecting yet another record performance this year.
When we first recommend Kobe Bussan in October 2018, the share price stood at around ¥780 and has risen to ¥4,080 since. This isn't cheap but given the five year growth potential, we remain bullish about the fundamentals long-term.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Japan requires retail developers to submit copious amounts of documentation to open any store over 1,000 sqm. In the past five years, there have been 2,505 applications for these larger developments, 750 of them anchored by drugstores, and more than 400 by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmos-pharmaceutical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3797:1" rel="noopener">Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP)</a> alone. The figures show that it is drugstores that are expanding more than any other retail sector.

Japan requires retail developers to submit copious amounts of documentation to open any store over 1,000 sqm. In the past five years, there have been 2,505 applications for these larger developments, 750 of them anchored by drugstores, and more than 400 by Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP) alone. The figures show that it is drugstores that are expanding more than any other retail sector.

Drugstores Leads Large Store Openings in Japan Led by Cosmos Pharma

Japan

COSMOS Pharmaceutical Corporation operates drug stores based in Kyushu. The Company sells daily necessities such as drug medicines, foodstuffs, and alcoholic beverages.

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Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP)

Matsukiyo Cocokara: Together at Last

MatsukiyoCocokara may top the drugstore ranking post-merger but Welcia and Tsuruha have grown much faster and may take the lead again soon given...

Michael Causton

Welcia: Aeon’s Shining Star

Welcia has retained the top spot in drugstores and, judging by its aggressive hiring of pharmacists is determined to stay there. It is working on...

Michael Causton

Kobe Bussan: Achieving New Records

Japan's discount food market is booming. The biggest discount supermarket operator is Kobe Bussan. The share price has around 6-fold since we first...

Michael Causton

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Our cautious outlook is reinforced by ongoing developments. Relative strength improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, Health...

Vermilion Research

Drugstores Leads Large Store Openings in Japan Led by Cosmos Pharma

Some analysts think the drugstore sector in Japan is saturated. As the latest govt. data shows, the sector has led in large store expansion in the...

Michael Causton

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