Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Izumi is joining the race to buy up more of Japan’s food and FMCG retail share. </li>
<li>Currently one of the dominant players in Kyushu, Izumi says it will use M&amp;A to increase store numbers over the next decade.</li>
<li>This will also mean pivoting more towards food rather than its traditional GMS format just like its competitors.</li>
</ul>


Izumi is joining the race to buy up more of Japan’s food and FMCG retail share. 
Currently one of the dominant players in Kyushu, Izumi says it will use M&amp;A to increase store numbers over the next decade.
This will also mean pivoting more towards food rather than its traditional GMS format just like its competitors.


Izumi Plans 300 Supermarkets Including Through M&A

<ul>
<li>Create SD is one of the largest food &amp; drug hybrid retailers in Japan and dominates its home Kanagawa market. </li>
<li>The company now plans to grow sales by 49% over the next five years, adding 30-40 stores a year.</li>
<li>With the supermarket sector now entering a period of significant disruption, Create also plans to acquire local chains to accelerate expansion.</li>
</ul>


Create SD is one of the largest food &amp; drug hybrid retailers in Japan and dominates its home Kanagawa market. 
The company now plans to grow sales by 49% over the next five years, adding 30-40 stores a year.
With the supermarket sector now entering a period of significant disruption, Create also plans to acquire local chains to accelerate expansion.


Create SD Plans More M&A as Kanagawa Dominance Strengthens

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The merger between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> will go through in about 6 weeks. In the interim, there are interesting events. </li>
<li>After, there is a Partial Tender Offer. I expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> will have to pay up. </li>
<li>Furthermore, the stock is not overly expensive vs Peers AND there are synergies to come from the merger, making it relatively cheaper. It's not squeezy, but it's skewed.</li>
</ul>


The merger between Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) will go through in about 6 weeks. In the interim, there are interesting events. 
After, there is a Partial Tender Offer. I expect Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) will have to pay up. 
Furthermore, the stock is not overly expensive vs Peers AND there are synergies to come from the merger, making it relatively cheaper. It's not squeezy, but it's skewed.


[Japan Activism/M&A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher

Genky DrugStores Co Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Genky Drugstores is one of three hybrid food &amp; drug chains, all of which target the discount end of the market. </li>
<li>Unlike rivals, Genky’s blends in-house control of both store and product development, and logistics.</li>
<li>This level of control and discipline is making Genky a growing threat to competitors in central Japan.</li>
</ul>


Genky Drugstores is one of three hybrid food &amp; drug chains, all of which target the discount end of the market. 
Unlike rivals, Genky’s blends in-house control of both store and product development, and logistics.
This level of control and discipline is making Genky a growing threat to competitors in central Japan.


Genky Drugstores (9267 JP) Aims for 10% Growth

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Leading proxies recommend that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> shareholders vote against the Tsuruha/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> merger on 26 May.</li>
<li>The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha vote will be close but likely to be approved. Long Tsuruha is the trade, irrespective of the vote.  </li>
<li>For a vote pass, you are long synergies and a likely partial offer bump. For a fail, you are long an undemanding multiple and the optionality of a new bid.      </li>
</ul>


Leading proxies recommend that Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shareholders vote against the Tsuruha/Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) merger on 26 May.
The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha vote will be close but likely to be approved. Long Tsuruha is the trade, irrespective of the vote.  
For a vote pass, you are long synergies and a likely partial offer bump. For a fail, you are long an undemanding multiple and the optionality of a new bid.      


Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Vote Musings

Japan

COSMOS Pharmaceutical Corporation operates drug stores based in Kyushu. The Company sells daily necessities such as drug medicines, foodstuffs, and alcoholic beverages.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP)

Izumi Plans 300 Supermarkets Including Through M&A

Izumi aims to expand its presence in Japan's food and FMCG retail market through M&A, shifting focus from GMS to food to compete with rivals.

Michael Causton

Create SD Plans More M&A as Kanagawa Dominance Strengthens

Create SD, a major food & drug retailer in Japan, aims to increase sales by 49% in 5 years by adding 30-40 stores annually and acquiring local...

Michael Causton

[Japan Activism/M&A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher

The Tsuruha/Welcia merger is official in 6 weeks. There is index buying between now and then, then a Partial Offer, then synergies to come. It's a...

Travis Lundy

Genky Drugstores (9267 JP) Aims for 10% Growth

Genky Drugstores' unique blend of low prices, in-house control over store, product development, and logistics is making it a growing threat to...

Michael Causton

Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Vote Musings

The Tsuruha vote on 26 May will be close but likely to be approved. Long Tsuruha is the trade, irrespective of the vote.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Izumi Plans 300 Supermarkets Including Through M&A

​Izumi aims to expand its presence in Japan's food and FMCG retail market through M&A, shifting focus from GMS to food to compete with rivals.

Michael Causton

Create SD Plans More M&A as Kanagawa Dominance Strengthens

​Create SD, a major food & drug retailer in Japan, aims to increase sales by 49% in 5 years by adding 30-40 stores annually and acquiring local...

Michael Causton

[Japan Activism/M&A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher

The Tsuruha/Welcia merger is official in 6 weeks. There is index buying between now and then, then a Partial Offer, then synergies to come. It's a...

Travis Lundy

Genky Drugstores (9267 JP) Aims for 10% Growth

​Genky Drugstores' unique blend of low prices, in-house control over store, product development, and logistics is making it a growing threat to...

Michael Causton

Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Vote Musings

The Tsuruha vote on 26 May will be close but likely to be approved. Long Tsuruha is the trade, irrespective of the vote.

Arun George

Izumi aims to expand its presence in Japan's food and FMCG retail market through M&A, shifting focus from GMS to food to compete with rivals.

Create SD, a major food & drug retailer in Japan, aims to increase sales by 49% in 5 years by adding 30-40 stores annually and acquiring local...

Genky Drugstores' unique blend of low prices, in-house control over store, product development, and logistics is making it a growing threat to...