Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

Genky DrugStores Co Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Genky Drugstores is one of three hybrid food &amp; drug chains, all of which target the discount end of the market. </li>
<li>Unlike rivals, Genky’s blends in-house control of both store and product development, and logistics.</li>
<li>This level of control and discipline is making Genky a growing threat to competitors in central Japan.</li>
</ul>


Genky Drugstores is one of three hybrid food &amp; drug chains, all of which target the discount end of the market. 
Unlike rivals, Genky’s blends in-house control of both store and product development, and logistics.
This level of control and discipline is making Genky a growing threat to competitors in central Japan.


Genky Drugstores (9267 JP) Aims for 10% Growth

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Leading proxies recommend that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> shareholders vote against the Tsuruha/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> merger on 26 May.</li>
<li>The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha vote will be close but likely to be approved. Long Tsuruha is the trade, irrespective of the vote.  </li>
<li>For a vote pass, you are long synergies and a likely partial offer bump. For a fail, you are long an undemanding multiple and the optionality of a new bid.      </li>
</ul>


Leading proxies recommend that Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shareholders vote against the Tsuruha/Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) merger on 26 May.
The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha vote will be close but likely to be approved. Long Tsuruha is the trade, irrespective of the vote.  
For a vote pass, you are long synergies and a likely partial offer bump. For a fail, you are long an undemanding multiple and the optionality of a new bid.      


Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Vote Musings

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> announced a merger through a share exchange followed by a partial tender offer by Aeon for a 50.90% stake of the merged entity.</li>
<li>The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha shareholder vote is high risk as Orbis, the second-largest shareholder, <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250411005584/en/Orbis-Statement-on-Proposed-Merger-Between-Tsuruha-and-Welcia-and-Proposed-Tender-Offer-by-Aeon" target="_blank" rel="noopener">intends to vote NO</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a>’s follow-up partial offer for Tsuruha is unattractive compared to its previous offer for the Oasis stake, peer multiples and premium to the undisturbed price.   </li>
</ul>



Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) announced a merger through a share exchange followed by a partial tender offer by Aeon for a 50.90% stake of the merged entity.
The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha shareholder vote is high risk as Orbis, the second-largest shareholder, intends to vote NO. 

Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)’s follow-up partial offer for Tsuruha is unattractive compared to its previous offer for the Oasis stake, peer multiples and premium to the undisturbed price.   


Tsuruha (3391 JP): Welcia (3141 JP) Share Exchange and Aeon (8267 JP) Partial Offer Unattractive

<ul>
<li>Trial was already one of Japan's leading discount retailers with a strong network of stores down south in Japan although rather low margins.</li>
<li>Buying Seiyu transforms this local retailer into a national champion and one of the top 10, with a highly complementary set of stores, product expertise, warehouses and tech.</li>
<li>Together, the two will now be able to take on Aeon, Seven &amp; I, PPI and other major retailers in building the first true national grocery chains in Japan.</li>
</ul>


Trial was already one of Japan's leading discount retailers with a strong network of stores down south in Japan although rather low margins.
Buying Seiyu transforms this local retailer into a national champion and one of the top 10, with a highly complementary set of stores, product expertise, warehouses and tech.
Together, the two will now be able to take on Aeon, Seven &amp; I, PPI and other major retailers in building the first true national grocery chains in Japan.


Trial a Top 10 Retailer After Seiyu Purchase from KKR (With Big Synergies)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OK Super opened its first store in Kansai in November with a second already due in January and at least one more by the end of 2025</li>
<li>But then it will open 10 stores a year in the region aiming to take the lead in Kansai just as it did in Tokyo/Kanto – bigger even than Aeon.</li>
<li>More than 300 people queued to get into the supermarket and OK’s EDLP strategy is certain to prove a hit with customers in the region. Competitors will be hit hard.</li>
</ul>


OK Super opened its first store in Kansai in November with a second already due in January and at least one more by the end of 2025
But then it will open 10 stores a year in the region aiming to take the lead in Kansai just as it did in Tokyo/Kanto – bigger even than Aeon.
More than 300 people queued to get into the supermarket and OK’s EDLP strategy is certain to prove a hit with customers in the region. Competitors will be hit hard.


OK Super Fast Rollout in Kansai a Threat to Kansai Super and Others

Japan

COSMOS Pharmaceutical Corporation operates drug stores based in Kyushu. The Company sells daily necessities such as drug medicines, foodstuffs, and alcoholic beverages.

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Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP)

Genky Drugstores (9267 JP) Aims for 10% Growth

Genky Drugstores' unique blend of low prices, in-house control over store, product development, and logistics is making it a growing threat to...

Michael Causton

Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Vote Musings

The Tsuruha vote on 26 May will be close but likely to be approved. Long Tsuruha is the trade, irrespective of the vote.

Arun George

Trial a Top 10 Retailer After Seiyu Purchase from KKR (With Big Synergies)

Trial, a leading discounter in Japan, becomes a national champion by acquiring Seiyu, creating a strong competitor to major retailers in building...

Michael Causton

OK Super Fast Rollout in Kansai a Threat to Kansai Super and Others

OK Super has just begun expanding in Kansai, with plans to open multiple stores each year, drawing in customers with its EDLP strategy. OK Super...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Genky Drugstores (9267 JP) Aims for 10% Growth

​Genky Drugstores' unique blend of low prices, in-house control over store, product development, and logistics is making it a growing threat to...

Michael Causton

Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Vote Musings

The Tsuruha vote on 26 May will be close but likely to be approved. Long Tsuruha is the trade, irrespective of the vote.

Arun George

Tsuruha (3391 JP): Welcia (3141 JP) Share Exchange and Aeon (8267 JP) Partial Offer Unattractive

Unsurprisingly, Orbis has opposed the transactions, as the terms of the share exchange and partial offer are unfavourable for Tsuruha shareholders....

Arun George

Trial a Top 10 Retailer After Seiyu Purchase from KKR (With Big Synergies)

​Trial, a leading discounter in Japan, becomes a national champion by acquiring Seiyu, creating a strong competitor to major retailers in building...

Michael Causton

OK Super Fast Rollout in Kansai a Threat to Kansai Super and Others

​OK Super has just begun expanding in Kansai, with plans to open multiple stores each year, drawing in customers with its EDLP strategy. OK Super...

Michael Causton

Genky Drugstores' unique blend of low prices, in-house control over store, product development, and logistics is making it a growing threat to...

Trial, a leading discounter in Japan, becomes a national champion by acquiring Seiyu, creating a strong competitor to major retailers in building...

OK Super has just begun expanding in Kansai, with plans to open multiple stores each year, drawing in customers with its EDLP strategy. OK Super...