Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 18-24 August 2023

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Debt /Cover Story: China’s ‘hidden debt’ of local governments threatens national economy</li><li>Property /: Country Garden’s plan to extend bond repayment meets with resistance</li><li>Stocks /: China’s securities regulator steps up efforts to bolster sagging market</li></ul>

Debt /Cover Story: China’s ‘hidden debt’ of local governments threatens national economyProperty /: Country Garden’s plan to extend bond repayment meets with resistanceStocks /: China’s securities regulator steps up efforts to bolster sagging market

CX Daily: China’s ‘Hidden Debt’ of Local Governments Threatens National Economy

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>These past few weeks have been all about China and China is all about real estate.</li>
<li>With that, welcome to this week’s real estate-focused edition of the ‘Watch Series’, where we look for clues on the state of the US parallel in particular.</li>
<li>Our findings in brief: Favorable fixings counter forced selling, Record low affordability discourages buying, Little volume and stalemate in price, Weakening labor market and layoffs remain THE triggers for potential selloff.</li>
</ul>


These past few weeks have been all about China and China is all about real estate.
With that, welcome to this week’s real estate-focused edition of the ‘Watch Series’, where we look for clues on the state of the US parallel in particular.
Our findings in brief: Favorable fixings counter forced selling, Record low affordability discourages buying, Little volume and stalemate in price, Weakening labor market and layoffs remain THE triggers for potential selloff.


Real Estate Watch: Too Early to Call off the Crisis in Western Markets

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1Q23 shows strong Value Of New Business (VONB), not sure of profit flow through</li>
<li>Comparative to 1H22 is easy vs loss of USD556m in the period, but risk to downside</li>
<li>Despite, stock buybacks, increased dividends market cap down 34% since peak this year</li>
</ul>


1Q23 shows strong Value Of New Business (VONB), not sure of profit flow through
Comparative to 1H22 is easy vs loss of USD556m in the period, but risk to downside
Despite, stock buybacks, increased dividends market cap down 34% since peak this year


AIA - Results 24 Aug, Cratering Mkt Cap Suggests Malaise, Earnings Base May Be Structurally Lower

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>China could become a ‘Credit Event.’ Despite a slew of new stimulus measures by the Chinese government, they are not comprehensive enough to rule out one or more credit events.</li>
<li>200-Day moving averages hit. Several equity market indices have dipped below their 200-day moving average, including the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. </li>
<li>Response to the latest US inflation figure. In contrast to previous favorable inflation figures, American stocks closed lower on the day following the publication.</li>
</ul>


China could become a ‘Credit Event.’ Despite a slew of new stimulus measures by the Chinese government, they are not comprehensive enough to rule out one or more credit events.
200-Day moving averages hit. Several equity market indices have dipped below their 200-day moving average, including the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. 
Response to the latest US inflation figure. In contrast to previous favorable inflation figures, American stocks closed lower on the day following the publication.


Back with a Bang! – Macro and Sentiment Call for an Underweight in Equities

China

Country Garden Holdings Company Limited is a real estate developer.  The Company builds villas, townhouses and apartments in Mainland China. Country Gardens also develops large-scale community facilities such as schools, hotels, hospitals, and theme parks.

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Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 18-24 August 2023

A weekly curation of select local Chinese news articles, WeChat posts, and company announcements focused on property developers in distress and the...

Robert Ciemniak

CX Daily: China’s ‘Hidden Debt’ of Local Governments Threatens National Economy

Debt /Cover Story: China’s ‘hidden debt’ of local governments threatens national economy Property /: Country Garden’s plan to extend bond...

Caixin Global

Real Estate Watch: Too Early to Call off the Crisis in Western Markets

These past few weeks have been all about China and China is all about real estate. With that, welcome to this week’s real estate-focused edition...

Steno Research

AIA - Results 24 Aug, Cratering Mkt Cap Suggests Malaise, Earnings Base May Be Structurally Lower

August 24 will see 1H23 earnings release, comparative YoY easy due to losses 1H22, but seems like earnings base is structurally lower. HK, CH...

Daniel Tabbush

Back with a Bang! – Macro and Sentiment Call for an Underweight in Equities

We lower the weight of Emerging and Developed Market Equities on recent developments in China, indices dropping below their 200-day moving...

Jeroen Blokland

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