External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>NBS 2M23 sales value came flattish YoY, in line with our forecast.</li><li>However, it beat China funds ’ expectation and strongly beat foreign funds’expectation, thus driving today’s sector rally.</li><li>Looking at March, we expect even stronger March data (positive sales YoY) as 1) MTD sales of 30 major cities already recorded 24% growth YoY. 2) Our sales leading indicator GAIN was one of the highest in Feb, indicating very promising March. 3) Recent channel check in major cities suggests sales momentum to continue on stabilized property price and historically low mortgage rate. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NBS 2M23 sales value came flattish YoY, in line with our forecast.However, it beat China funds ’ expectation and strongly beat foreign funds’expectation, thus driving today’s sector rally.Looking at March, we expect even stronger March data (positive sales YoY) as 1) MTD sales of 30 major cities already recorded 24% growth YoY. 2) Our sales leading indicator GAIN was one of the highest in Feb, indicating very promising March. 3) Recent channel check in major cities suggests sales momentum to continue on stabilized property price and historically low mortgage rate. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – NBS 2M23 data: Strong as expected

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Country Garden Holdings Co / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>As a background, can I refer the reader to Substack Note No One Cares 有中国特色 Real Estate Liquidity Spiral to Solvency Challenge 31st October 2022 ?</li><li>It bottoms ticked recovery in the highly leveraged Real estate Index Hang Seng Mainland Property Index (HSPMI) and rallied 103% from trough to peak 27th January 2023.</li><li>The mainland listed Index CSI 300 Real estate (CSI300RE) trough (1st November) to peak (27th November) was 43.5%.</li></ul>

As a background, can I refer the reader to Substack Note No One Cares 有中国特色 Real Estate Liquidity Spiral to Solvency Challenge 31st October 2022 ?It bottoms ticked recovery in the highly leveraged Real estate Index Hang Seng Mainland Property Index (HSPMI) and rallied 103% from trough to peak 27th January 2023.The mainland listed Index CSI 300 Real estate (CSI300RE) trough (1st November) to peak (27th November) was 43.5%.

<ul><li>We saw another week of strong property data where new home/secondary home sales went up 23%/12% WoW.</li><li>This is in line with our sales leading index GAIN and our upgrade report that sales is more sustainable than what market thinks.</li><li>The solid housing recovery has also accelerated housing construction activities that its construction resumption rate recovered to 84.1%, higher than 2022 already, and only slightly lagging behind the infrastructure (87.3%) and government projects (88.2%). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We saw another week of strong property data where new home/secondary home sales went up 23%/12% WoW.This is in line with our sales leading index GAIN and our upgrade report that sales is more sustainable than what market thinks.The solid housing recovery has also accelerated housing construction activities that its construction resumption rate recovered to 84.1%, higher than 2022 already, and only slightly lagging behind the infrastructure (87.3%) and government projects (88.2%). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – Property+ Weekly: Sales momentum accelerated on lower tier cities

Equity Bottom-Up

Country Garden Holdings Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We think Mr. Yeung’s retirement poses no material impact on CG as the ground has been laid back in 2018 with Ms. Yan being the co-Chairlady and stable management (The triangle Mr. Mo, Dr. Cheng and Ms. Wu).</li><li>Instead, we think the change may give current management more flexibility for the strategy.</li><li>Fundamental-wise, CG still recorded 35% YoY sales decline in 2M23 due to lack of new launches and underperforming lower tier cities. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We think Mr. Yeung’s retirement poses no material impact on CG as the ground has been laid back in 2018 with Ms. Yan being the co-Chairlady and stable management (The triangle Mr. Mo, Dr. Cheng and Ms. Wu).Instead, we think the change may give current management more flexibility for the strategy.Fundamental-wise, CG still recorded 35% YoY sales decline in 2M23 due to lack of new launches and underperforming lower tier cities. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Country Garden (2007 HK) – Mr. Yeung’s retirement not a surprise

<ul><li>Feb sales came out at a strong beat both in terms of strength at 30% YoY (cons -5%), but also the timing of turning positive (cons in April).</li><li>We think the momentum would be more sustainable than market expectation as 1) our leading indicator GAIN jumped to the highest since 2021 indicating ST sales would continue to be strong.</li><li>2) Our channel check suggests home buyers are much more than pent-up demand. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Feb sales came out at a strong beat both in terms of strength at 30% YoY (cons -5%), but also the timing of turning positive (cons in April).We think the momentum would be more sustainable than market expectation as 1) our leading indicator GAIN jumped to the highest since 2021 indicating ST sales would continue to be strong.2) Our channel check suggests home buyers are much more than pent-up demand. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – Feb sales a strong beat; Raise 2023 forecast

China

Country Garden Holdings Company Limited is a real estate developer.  The Company builds villas, townhouses and apartments in Mainland China. Country Gardens also develops large-scale community facilities such as schools, hotels, hospitals, and theme parks.

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Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)

China Property Sector – NBS 2M23 data: Strong as expected

NBS 2M23 sales value came flattish YoY, in line with our forecast. However, it beat China funds ’ expectation and strongly beat foreign...

CMB International

China Real Estate

It bottoms ticked recovery in the highly leveraged Real estate Index Hang Seng Mainland Property Index (HSPMI) and rallied 103% from trough to peak...

Untying The Gordian Knot

China Property Sector – Property+ Weekly: Sales momentum accelerated on lower tier cities

This is in line with our sales leading index GAIN and our upgrade report that sales is more sustainable than what market thinks.

CMB International

Country Garden (2007 HK) – Mr. Yeung’s retirement not a surprise

We think Mr. Yeung’s retirement poses no material impact on CG as the ground has been laid back in 2018 with Ms. Yan being the co-Chairlady and...

CMB International

China Property Sector – Feb sales a strong beat; Raise 2023 forecast

Feb sales came out at a strong beat both in terms of strength at 30% YoY (cons -5%), but also the timing of turning positive (cons in April).

CMB International

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