Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> are high probability deletions in September, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> is a high probability inclusion.</li>
<li>The second add could be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK)</a> if it passes the velocity test. If not, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> will be added.</li>
<li>With the exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>, short interest has been rising on all the other stocks and could affect how the stocks trade close to implementation date.</li>
</ul>



Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) are high probability deletions in September, while Trip.com (9961 HK) is a high probability inclusion.
The second add could be BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) if it passes the velocity test. If not, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) will be added.
With the exception of Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), short interest has been rising on all the other stocks and could affect how the stocks trade close to implementation date.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Deletions Fairly Certain; Uncertainty Among the Adds

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Equity Bottom-Up

Country Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd., one of China’s largest property developers, said it expects to report a record, multibillion-dollar net loss for the first half, raising further concerns as the company slides deeper into a debt crisis.Guangdong-based Country Garden estimated its net loss at 45 billion yuan to 55 billion yuan ($6.2 billion to $7.6 billion) for the first six months of 2023, compared with a net profit of 1.91 billion yuan a year ago, according to <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0810/2023081001200.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a Hong Kong exchange filing </a>late Thursday.The company warned July 31 that it would report red ink for the first half.

Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd., one of China’s largest property developers, said it expects to report a record, multibillion-dollar net loss for the first half, raising further concerns as the company slides deeper into a debt crisis.Guangdong-based Country Garden estimated its net loss at 45 billion yuan to 55 billion yuan ($6.2 billion to $7.6 billion) for the first six months of 2023, compared with a net profit of 1.91 billion yuan a year ago, according to a Hong Kong exchange filing late Thursday.The company warned July 31 that it would report red ink for the first half.

Country Garden Expects to Report Record First-Half Loss

Analyst

Steve

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a> announced a profit warning for 1H23 last night, expecting sales to increase by 3-4% yoy and net profit to see a 0-10% drop yoy.</li>
<li>The company also announced the intention to repurchase up to 10% of total shares outstanding. </li>
<li>Share price up +18% following the profit warning and share buyback announcement - a good read-across for the rest of the sector that will report interim results later this month. </li>
</ul>



Country Garden Services (6098 HK) announced a profit warning for 1H23 last night, expecting sales to increase by 3-4% yoy and net profit to see a 0-10% drop yoy.
The company also announced the intention to repurchase up to 10% of total shares outstanding. 
Share price up +18% following the profit warning and share buyback announcement - a good read-across for the rest of the sector that will report interim results later this month. 


Country Garden Services (6098 HK): 1H23 Profit Warning A Good Read-Across For The Sector

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Having first introduced the three red line guidance in late 2020, the government has begun shifting its stance, and relaxing some of its regulatory oversight.</li>
<li>In this note, we looked at recent news developments and how some larger developers fared against the three red lines criterion.</li>
<li>Of the large developers we looked at, there are a few names which stand out which could potentially do a capital raising given their financial standing. </li>
</ul>


Having first introduced the three red line guidance in late 2020, the government has begun shifting its stance, and relaxing some of its regulatory oversight.
In this note, we looked at recent news developments and how some larger developers fared against the three red lines criterion.
Of the large developers we looked at, there are a few names which stand out which could potentially do a capital raising given their financial standing. 


Chinese Developers’ Overview - Shift in Sentiment but a Few Still Needs Some Equity

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 28th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We estimate the outflows to be USD 65.0 million and highlight flows for Kuaishou Technology, Tencent, HSBC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 28th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate the outflows to be USD 65.0 million and highlight flows for Kuaishou Technology, Tencent, HSBC.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 28th): Kuaishou Technology, Tencent, HSBC

China

Country Garden Services Holdings Co. Ltd. provides comprehensive property management services to residential, commercial, and public facilities in Mainland China. Its services encompass security, cleaning, landscaping, maintenance, and various community value-added offerings, alongside city services like sanitation and waste treatment. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Foshan, People's Republic of China.

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Country Garden Services (6098 HK)

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Deletions Fairly Certain; Uncertainty Among the Adds

The two potential adds have outperformed the two potential deletes by 42% since end May and by 52% since end June. Shorts have jumped on Beigene...

Brian Freitas

Country Garden Expects to Report Record First-Half Loss

Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd., one of China’s largest property developers, said it expects to report a record, multibillion-dollar net loss for...

Caixin Global