Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Yorkey Optical International Cayman / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yorkey-optical-international-cayman" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12407:1" rel="noopener">Yorkey Optical International Cayman (2788 HK)</a>'s Scheme Document is now out, with the Court Meeting to be held on the 22 February.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-optical-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11214:1" rel="noopener">Asia Optical (3019 TT)</a> is offering HK$0.999/share, a 75.3% premium to the undisturbed close. David Webb has given an irrevocable undertaking to vote his shares in favour of the Scheme </li>
<li>This transaction is all stitched up. The Independent Financial Advisor considers the terms to be fair and reasonable. </li>
</ul>



Yorkey Optical International Cayman (2788 HK)'s Scheme Document is now out, with the Court Meeting to be held on the 22 February.

Asia Optical (3019 TT) is offering HK$0.999/share, a 75.3% premium to the undisturbed close. David Webb has given an irrevocable undertaking to vote his shares in favour of the Scheme 
This transaction is all stitched up. The Independent Financial Advisor considers the terms to be fair and reasonable. 


Yorkey Optical (2788 HK): Court Meeting On 22 Feb. IFA Says Fair

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akm-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7206:1" rel="noopener">Akm Industrial (1639 HK)</a> announced a privatisation offer from Alpha Luck and AKM Meadville at HK$1.82 per scheme share, a 14.47% premium to last full trading day price of HK$1.59. </li>
<li>The key pre-condition is several regulatory approvals which be forthcoming as Alpha Luck is indirectly 100% owned by the SASAC. </li>
<li>The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). We think the offer price is reasonable and the scheme will pass. </li>
</ul>



Akm Industrial (1639 HK) announced a privatisation offer from Alpha Luck and AKM Meadville at HK$1.82 per scheme share, a 14.47% premium to last full trading day price of HK$1.59. 
The key pre-condition is several regulatory approvals which be forthcoming as Alpha Luck is indirectly 100% owned by the SASAC. 
The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). We think the offer price is reasonable and the scheme will pass. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/biel-crystal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33919:1" rel="noopener">Biel Crystal (0924581D HK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$2bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. Biel Crystal (BC) is the largest smart device enclosure and module solution provider in terms of shipment value in 2020 with a market share of 17.6%, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S). BC’s products are used in end products such as smartphones, tablets, smart watches, AR, and VR glasses as well as automobiles.In this note, we will look at the industry landscape and compare BC to other Apple suppliers.We covered the IPO previously in:<ul><li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/biel-crystal-pre-ipo-cash-flow-generative-business-but-underlying-trend-is-worrying" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:56198" rel="noopener">Biel Crystal (伯恩光学) Pre-IPO - Cash Flow Generative Business but Underlying Trend Is Worrying</a> </li></ul>

Biel Crystal (0924581D HK) is looking to raise up to US$2bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. Biel Crystal (BC) is the largest smart device enclosure and module solution provider in terms of shipment value in 2020 with a market share of 17.6%, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S). BC’s products are used in end products such as smartphones, tablets, smart watches, AR, and VR glasses as well as automobiles.In this note, we will look at the industry landscape and compare BC to other Apple suppliers.We covered the IPO previously in:Biel Crystal (伯恩光学) Pre-IPO - Cash Flow Generative Business but Underlying Trend Is Worrying 

Biel Crystal (伯恩光学) Pre-IPO - Industry Landscape & Peer Comparison -  Auto Is the Wildcard

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

Q2 2020’s selection delivered an average return increase of 54% v’s the MSCI Asia Pacific Index 37.4% over the same period. The GARP-based screen uses a combination of growth and value metrics to identify shares where brokers are forecasting high earnings growth, but which are currently valued at a price that is low relative to their forecast outlook. Whilst Central Banks are providing additional liquidity favouring growth names, our value-based screen is key to delivering positive gains as tapering begins. Q2 2021's screen provides 16 key suggestions.  What makes the current selection interesting is the bias towards Taiwan and India on a country basis and Industrials and Healthcare on a sector basis. Also of particular note, Singapore presents one name on this screen.

Q2 2020’s selection delivered an average return increase of 54% v’s the MSCI Asia Pacific Index 37.4% over the same period. The GARP-based screen uses a combination of growth and value metrics to identify shares where brokers are forecasting high earnings growth, but which are currently valued at a price that is low relative to their forecast outlook. Whilst Central Banks are providing additional liquidity favouring growth names, our value-based screen is key to delivering positive gains as tapering begins. Q2 2021's screen provides 16 key suggestions.  What makes the current selection interesting is the bias towards Taiwan and India on a country basis and Industrials and Healthcare on a sector basis. Also of particular note, Singapore presents one name on this screen.

Screening the Silk Road: Q2-2021 All Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven



For the month of January, 22 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$52bn.


Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.





New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




Bingo Industries (BIN AU) 
Waste collection
1.8
Scheme
19.8%



Bingo Industries (ASX: BIN): Talking Trash
Bingo Industries (BIN AU): CPE/MIRA's Scavenger Hunt




Hong Kong




China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK) 
Construction
0.4
Merger by Absorption
45.1%



China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK): Possible Offer
China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK): Delisting Offer From Parent




Polytec Asset Holdings (208 HK) 
Real Estate
0.4
Scheme
61.3%


Polytec Asset (208 HK): Offer By Way Of A Scheme



HKC Holdings (190 HK) 
Holding Co.
0.2
Scheme
120.39%



China Renewable Energy (987 HK): Possible Privatisation Offer
HKC (190 HK): Take-Private Offer By Way Of A Scheme




New Century REIT (1275 HK) 
Hospitality
0.25
Scheme-like
14.3%


New Century (1275 HK): Closing Down Sale



Rivera Holdings (281 HK) 
Real estate
0.1
Scheme
62.5%


Rivera (281 HK): Scheme Or Face Delisting



China Traditional Chinese (570 HK) 
TCM
3.0
??
??


Trad Chi Med (570 HK): Sinopharm's Feverish Proposal



Zhejiang New Century Hotel (1158 HK) 
Hospitality
0.65
Merger by Absorption
24.7%


Zhejiang New Century (1158 HK): Pre-Conditional Offer



Zhuhai Holdings Investment (908 HK) 
Ports
0.2
Scheme
37.8%


Zhuhai Holdings (908 HK): Zhuhai SASAC Reloads With Scheme Offer



India




Engineers India (ENGR IN) 
Engineering
0.1
Buyback tender
10%


Hefty Engineers India Buyback Tender - Worth The Arb If You Own



Japan




Tokyo Rope Mfg (5981 JP) 
Wire rope
0.2
Partial
39%



Nippon Steel's HOSTILE Partial Tender Offer for Tokyo Rope: A Move to Mark Territory?
New Money for Old Rope? Gaming Out A Hostile Partial Offer on Tokyo Rope (5981)




Singapore




CEI Limited (CEI SP) 
Electronics
0.1
VGO
16.2%


CEI Limited (CEI SP): Privatization Deal by AEM Holdings (AEM SP) Trading with a View to Complete



GL Ltd (GLL SP) 
Hospitality
0.2
VGO
25.0%


GL Limited (GLL SP): Privatisation Offer Renews Interest In Guoco



Penguin International (PBS SP) 
Boat builder
0.1
VGO
30%


Penguin International (PBS SP): Friendly Privatization Deal Might Need A Bump



Europe




CA Immobilien Anlagen AG (CAI AV) 
Real estate
3.8
Offer
16.9%


CA Immo - Starwood: Mandatory Offer



Carrefour SA (CA FP) 
Convenience
20.0
Merger
29.3%


Carrefour - Alimentation Couche-Tard Non-Binding Offer



Enlabs AB (NLAB SS) 
Sports betting
0.3
Offer
1.1%


Enlabs - Entain Beefing Up



Entain (ENT LN) 
Entertainment
11.0
Offer
22%


MGM's Prospective Offer for Entain



Liberbank SA (LBK SM) 
Financing
0.9
Merger



Liberbank - Unicaja Agreed Merger



Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM) 
Energy
6.0
Partial offer
20%


IFM Investors to Launch a Partial Hostile Tender Offer for Naturgy



Handicare Group AB (HANDI SS) 
Medi aid
0.4
Offer
22.0%


Handicare - Savaria: Recommended Offer



Tikkurila Oyj (TIK1V FH) 
Paints
1.7
Offer
84.5%


Akzo Nobel Tops PPG's Offer for Tikkurila


Source: Smartkarma Insights




The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in January was ~35%. This compared to the average premium in 2020 and 2019 of 31% and 31.5% respectively. 




Summary of News in January of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar


(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation. Where a new insight was written on these names in July, I've included a link, in bold, to that insight in italics.)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

21-Jan: Non-binding term sheet entered into




amaysim Australia (AYS AU) 

18-Jan:
WAM Capital Ltd (WAM AU) has bumped its Offer for amaysim Australia (AYS AU) to 1 new WAM share for every 2.675 AYS share; or A$0.70/share cash per share, from 1 new WAM share for every 2.7 AYS share; or A$0.695/share cash per share. AYS' largest shareholder, Longfrist with 19.19%, supports WAM's Offer.




Asaleo Care Ltd (AHY AU) 

27-Jan: Independent board rejects non-binding proposal




Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) 

27-Jan: Shandong to compulsory acquire shares. Shares to be cease trading on the 3 Feb




Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) 

6-Jan: Coca-Cola Amatil Takeover Offer: A Bump Forthcoming?




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

3-Jan: SS&amp;C withdraws proposal for Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU).




Regis Healthcare (REG AU) 

20-Jan Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. (SOL AU)withdraws




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

20-Jan: Think Childcare (TNK AU): Bigger Bid by Busy Bees




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

No January update




WPP PLC (WPP LN) 

No January update










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) 

31-Dec: Beijing Jingneng (579 HK): Doc Out. IFA Says Fair &amp; Reasonable
11-Jan: As expected, SAIF (6.13% of total issued H  shares, and 11.53% of independent H shares; and Goldwind (2.83% &amp; 5.32% respectively) have given letters of intent to support the Offer. 
25-Jan:Quiddity M&amp;A : A Guide To Mergers By Absorption




Car Inc (699 HK) 

7-Jan: Car Inc (699 HK):  Are We Missing Anything?
26-Jan: Car Inc (699 HK):  No, We Are Not Missing Anything




China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK) 

18-Jan: Bloomberg is reporting that Blackstone Group Inc., ESR Cayman Ltd., and JD Logistics Inc. are among bidders for control of China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK). Meituan (3690 HK) is also reportedly in the mix.




Cowell E Holdings (1415 HK) 

1-Jan: Cowell E Holdings (1415 HK) delays the dispatch of the Composite Doc to the 22 January. 
15-Jan: Doc issued. Fist close is the 5 Feb




Huifu Payment Limited (1806 HK) 

27-Jan: Huifu Payment (1806 HK): Scheme Doc Out. IFA Says Fair




I.T Ltd (999 HK) 

20-Jan: Pre-cons satisfied. 




Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) 

11-Jan: Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) shareholders approved the merger. 12 Jan was the last day of trading. 




SHK Hong Kong Industries (666 HK) 

No January update




Tonly Electronics Holdings (1249 HK) 

29-Jan: Tonly Electronics (1249 HK): Scheme Doc Out. IFA Says Fair




China Zhongdi Dairy (1492 HK) 

18-Jan:  Zhongdi Dairy (1492 HK): Doc Out. Compulsory Acquisition Afforded










India


Comments (with links to insights)




Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN) 

No January update




INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) 

No January update




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

11-Jan: Vedanta (VEDL IN) Promoter To Launch an Open Offer To Buy More










Japan


Comments (with links to insights)




Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No January update



Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

No January update




Japan Asia (3751 JP) 

11-Dec: City Index Eleventh is now 14.91% of the register at Japan Asia (3751 JP).
18-Jan: Murakami Fund's Tender for JAG (3751):  May Be Rangebound Near-Term
26-Jan: Japan Asia Group (3751): Murakami Wins the Mother Of All Bumps +100% 




Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) 

4-Jan: Black Clover today reported they owned 12.29% of Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) 
23-Jan: Joban Kaihatsu MBO Price Bumped, Tender Extended: Still Not Rolling In Clover




Keihanshin Building (8818 JP) 

13-Jan Tender offer fails. Funny that. 




Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) 

9-Jan: Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) reported  that SMFL MIrai Partners had completed the Tender Offer for Kenedix shares and ended up with 62.35%
12-Jan: FTSE announced today that it would reduce the weight of Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) in its index from 97.7309% to 34.90958490918% while keeping the share count unchanged at 218,917,200 shares. The change takes place at the close of business on the 14th of January




Medical &amp; Biological Laboratories (4557 JP) 

Delisted 13 January




Pressance Corp (3254 JP) 

17-Jan: Pressance Partial Tender - Almost EVERYONE Tendered




Softbrain (4779 JP) 

Delisted on Jan 19




Tokyo Dome Corp (9681 JP) 

19-Jan: Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) announced the results of its Tender Offer for Tokyo Dome Corp (9681 JP). That will trigger an EGM and a resulting squeezeout.  It will also trigger a FTSE and MSCI downweight.




Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP) 

13-Jan: Toa Oil (5008) Tender Offer Update - Looks Bumpity
14-Jan: Cornwall Capital announced it had increased its position in Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP) from 20.86% (as of the last report) to 21.89% (as of the 6th of January). 
28-Jan: Cornwall Capital announced it had increased its position to 22.98%










Malaysia


Comments (with links to insights)




Batu Kawan Bhd (BAK MK) 

No January update




FGV Holdings Bhd (FGV MK) 

26-Jan: FGV (FGB MK): IFA Says Offer Not Fair








New Zealand


Comments (with links to insights and announcements)




Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) 

28-Jan: Announced a strategic review of 51%-held Trustpower Ltd (TPW NZ) 








Philippines


Comments (with links to insights and announcements)




Lopez Holdings (LPZ PM) 

21-Jan: Tender Offer report despatched. Closing date is the 19 Feb,










Singapore


Comments 




Hi P International (HIP SP) 

No January update




Soilbuild Business Space REIT (SBREIT SP) 

24-Jan: First court hearing to be held on the 8 Feb.








Taiwan


Comments (with links to insights)




Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) 

6-Jan: Fubon Financial Offer for Jih Sun Gets Even Weirder
7-Jan: Taiwanese news agency CNA has said that the FSC is investigating whether or not Capital Target Limited and its Responsible Officer Derek MD Chen (who I had believed to be the Responsible Person) is indeed the controller of Capital Target Limited.




Thinflex Corp (3144 TT) 

Tender Offer was completed, 100% pro-ration. (Japanese)













Europe/UK


Comments (with links to announcements and insights)




Altice NV A (ATC NA) 


22-Jan: Offer declared unconditional




Calisen PLC (1779730D LN) 


18-Jan: Sche doc issued




Entra ASA (ENTRA NO) 

No January update




KAZ Minerals (KAZ LN) 

25-Jan:  KAZ Minerals




Siltronic AG (WAF GR) 

25-Jan: GlobalWafers Ups Offer for Siltronic




Recipharm AB (RECIB SS) 
28-Jan: Roar bumps Offer



RSA Insurance (RSA LN) 
No January update



Tele Columbus AG (TC1 GR) 
No January update



Veolia Environnement SA (VIE FP) 
11-Jan: Veolia Steps up Pressure on Suez






Hong Kong

Cowell e Holdings Inc, is a holding company, which operates electronics and optical components manufacturing entities. The products include camera modules, optical lens and prisms.

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Cowell E Holdings (1415 HK)

Yorkey Optical (2788 HK): Court Meeting On 22 Feb. IFA Says Fair

Trading at a 3.0%/18.3% gross/annualised spread. That looks like the right level. It may narrow a spread following the release of this Scheme Doc....

David Blennerhassett

AKM Industrial’s Privatisation Bid

AKM Industrial announced a privatisation offer at HK$1.82 per scheme share, a 14.47% premium to the last full trading day price. We think the offer...

Arun George

Biel Crystal (伯恩光学) Pre-IPO - Industry Landscape & Peer Comparison - Auto Is the Wildcard

Peer comparison against other Apple suppliers show that BC doesn’t stand out but neither does it underperform in any aspects.

Sumeet Singh

Screening the Silk Road: Q2-2021 All Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

GARP selection, held for 12 mths for good reason. The list delivered an average return of 54% v’s the MSCI Asia Pac Index 37.4% over the same...

David Lepper

(Mostly) Asia M&A: January 2021 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in January was ~36%. This compared to the average premium in 2020 and 2019 of...

David Blennerhassett

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