ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL (CPALL TB)</a> has seen a rout in its share price as investors worry that it may be drawn into investing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings</a>.</li>
<li>Indications suggest that if it was to invest, the stake would be much smaller than previously reported and it would likely come with some beneficial concessions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL (CPALL TB)</a> continues to see a strong recovery in both sales and profitability, with a positive outlook for FY2025, whilst valuations have been compressed to attractive levels.</li>
</ul>



CP ALL (CPALL TB) has seen a rout in its share price as investors worry that it may be drawn into investing in Seven &amp; I Holdings.
Indications suggest that if it was to invest, the stake would be much smaller than previously reported and it would likely come with some beneficial concessions.

CP ALL (CPALL TB) continues to see a strong recovery in both sales and profitability, with a positive outlook for FY2025, whilst valuations have been compressed to attractive levels.


CP ALL (CPALL TB) - Caught in a Force Seven Gale

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>4Q24E is expected to have seen strong SSSG and a healthy GPM in the CVS business, along with an improved GPM in CPAXT’s wholesale and retail business.</li><li>As a result, CPALL’s core profit for 4Q24E is projected to have grown by 14% YoY, with 2024E net profit growth of 37% (better than the previous forecast of 29% growth).</li><li>The current valuation remains a buy based on the fundamentals (with the current share price implying 19% upside to the target price).</li></ul>

4Q24E is expected to have seen strong SSSG and a healthy GPM in the CVS business, along with an improved GPM in CPAXT’s wholesale and retail business.As a result, CPALL’s core profit for 4Q24E is projected to have grown by 14% YoY, with 2024E net profit growth of 37% (better than the previous forecast of 29% growth).The current valuation remains a buy based on the fundamentals (with the current share price implying 19% upside to the target price).

CP All - 4Q24E and 2024E Core Profit to Have Grown by 14% and 37% YoY

<ul><li>The Easy E-Receipt 2.0 tax deduction measure, to be implemented from January 16 to February 28, is expected to generate Bt70bn in cash flow and boost the economy by approximately 0.38%.</li><li>This is anticipated to have a positive impact on the five commerce sector stocks under our coverage.</li><li>We assign a Neutral investment weight, as our analysis indicates that this measure could positively impact profits by approximately 0.6% of the combined earnings estimates for the five companies in 2025E. </li></ul>

The Easy E-Receipt 2.0 tax deduction measure, to be implemented from January 16 to February 28, is expected to generate Bt70bn in cash flow and boost the economy by approximately 0.38%.This is anticipated to have a positive impact on the five commerce sector stocks under our coverage.We assign a Neutral investment weight, as our analysis indicates that this measure could positively impact profits by approximately 0.6% of the combined earnings estimates for the five companies in 2025E. 

Commerce: Easy E-Receipt 2.0 to Pose Most Upside to CPALL

<ul><li>The valuation metrics suggest maintaining a neutral view on the current fundamentals, with the stock price implying 3% upside from its fair value (FV).</li><li>However, the tactical outlook has been revised to neutral (previously limited downside risk).</li><li>The long-term growth outlook remains strong, with profit growth projected at a CAGR of 17% over the next two years.</li></ul>

The valuation metrics suggest maintaining a neutral view on the current fundamentals, with the stock price implying 3% upside from its fair value (FV).However, the tactical outlook has been revised to neutral (previously limited downside risk).The long-term growth outlook remains strong, with profit growth projected at a CAGR of 17% over the next two years.

Cp All - 3Q24 Core Profit Growth of 45% YoY and 1% QoQ, 5% Better than Forecast

<ul><li>KTX maintains an Outperform rating with a 2025 fair value of Bt64.80 (up from Bt62.17), using the earnings yield method based on a required return of 4.6%, reflecting a target PER of 22x.</li><li>The valuation metrics present a neutral view on the current fundamentals, and the tactical downside risk is limited.</li><li>We continue to have a strong outlook on long-term growth, projecting three-year earnings growth at a 20% CAGR.</li></ul>

KTX maintains an Outperform rating with a 2025 fair value of Bt64.80 (up from Bt62.17), using the earnings yield method based on a required return of 4.6%, reflecting a target PER of 22x.The valuation metrics present a neutral view on the current fundamentals, and the tactical downside risk is limited.We continue to have a strong outlook on long-term growth, projecting three-year earnings growth at a 20% CAGR.

Cp All - Expect 3Q24E Core Profit to Grow 39% YoY but Fall 4% QoQ

Thailand

CP ALL PCL operates convenience store chains in Thailand and China.  The Company also owns and operates the a department store chain located primarily in Shanghai city and Chonqing city of China.

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CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)

CP ALL (CPALL TB) - Caught in a Force Seven Gale

CP ALL (CPALL TB) continues to see a strong recovery in both sales and profitability, with a positive outlook for FY2025, whilst valuations have...

Angus Mackintosh

CP All - 4Q24E and 2024E Core Profit to Have Grown by 14% and 37% YoY

4Q24E is expected to have seen strong SSSG and a healthy GPM in the CVS business, along with an improved GPM in CPAXT’s wholesale and retail business.

Krungthai XSpring

Commerce: Easy E-Receipt 2.0 to Pose Most Upside to CPALL

The Easy E-Receipt 2.0 tax deduction measure, to be implemented from January 16 to February 28, is expected to generate Bt70bn in cash flow and...

Krungthai XSpring

Cp All - 3Q24 Core Profit Growth of 45% YoY and 1% QoQ, 5% Better than Forecast

The valuation metrics suggest maintaining a neutral view on the current fundamentals, with the stock price implying 3% upside from its fair value...

Krungthai XSpring

Cp All - Expect 3Q24E Core Profit to Grow 39% YoY but Fall 4% QoQ

KTX maintains an Outperform rating with a 2025 fair value of Bt64.80 (up from Bt62.17), using the earnings yield method based on a required return...

Krungthai XSpring

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