Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. I've yet to see a solid rationality why they would block.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed this week: Bain's Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jamco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14741:1" rel="noopener">Jamco Corp (7408 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ho-bee-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18298:1" rel="noopener">Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP)</a> also countered for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avjennings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12578:1" rel="noopener">AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-china-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26090:1" rel="noopener">Lifestyle China (2136 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. I've yet to see a solid rationality why they would block.
One new deal was discussed this week: Bain's Tender Offer for Jamco Corp (7408 JP). Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP) also countered for AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU).
Key updates/news took place on: Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), and Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)/Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Jamco, AVJennings, Insignia Financial, Advanced Info Service/Thaicom

<ul>
<li>After CC Capital waded in on the 6th January with a A$4.30/share NBIO for wealth manager <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>, trumping Bain's A$4.00/share proposal, Bain subsequently matched CC Capital's terms.  </li>
<li>CC Capital has now lifted is indicative Offer to <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250117/pdf/06dm4ygnv88lmw.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A$4.60/share</a>, a ~50% premium to undisturbed. Time for IFL to engage. And for Tanarra to be supportive. </li>
<li>And Bain? I expect them to match CC Capital's terms, again; if not a small premium. </li>
</ul>


After CC Capital waded in on the 6th January with a A$4.30/share NBIO for wealth manager Insignia Financial (IFL AU), trumping Bain's A$4.00/share proposal, Bain subsequently matched CC Capital's terms.  
CC Capital has now lifted is indicative Offer to A$4.60/share, a ~50% premium to undisturbed. Time for IFL to engage. And for Tanarra to be supportive. 
And Bain? I expect them to match CC Capital's terms, again; if not a small premium. 


Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bumpity Bumpity. Expect Bain To Match - Or Exceed - CC Capital's Terms

<ul>
<li>Back on the 6th December 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-china-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26090:1" rel="noopener">Lifestyle China (2136 HK)</a>, a PRC department store operator, announced a Scheme from Thomas Lau, its chairman/CEO and major shareholder (74.91%, including concert parties).</li>
<li>The HK$0.913 Offer price was miserly 21.7% premium to last close. But not declared final. </li>
<li>The Offer deserved a bump, and Lau has obliged. However, the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0116/2025011600886.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revised HK$0.98/share bid</a>, a 30.6% premium to undisturbed, remains underwhelming. Lau has declared terms final.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 6th December 2024, Lifestyle China (2136 HK), a PRC department store operator, announced a Scheme from Thomas Lau, its chairman/CEO and major shareholder (74.91%, including concert parties).
The HK$0.913 Offer price was miserly 21.7% premium to last close. But not declared final. 
The Offer deserved a bump, and Lau has obliged. However, the revised HK$0.98/share bid, a 30.6% premium to undisturbed, remains underwhelming. Lau has declared terms final.


Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Lau's Scheme - The Premium Is Still Wrong. And Now Final

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Canvest Environmental Protection Group / Event-Driven

Canvest Environmental Protection Group (0XC SW)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grandblue-environment-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17887:1" rel="noopener">Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH)</a> continues to make steady progress in satisfying the precondition for its HK$4.90 privatisation offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Two of the five preconditions are satisfied, and another will be satisfied by 20 January. The long stop date of 17 July provides ample time to satisfy the remaining two. </li>
<li>Although the peers have materially re-rated, the offer implies a premium compared to peer multiples. Vote risk remains low, aided by selling by a shareholder with a blocking stake. </li>
</ul>



Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH) continues to make steady progress in satisfying the precondition for its HK$4.90 privatisation offer for Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK). 
Two of the five preconditions are satisfied, and another will be satisfied by 20 January. The long stop date of 17 July provides ample time to satisfy the remaining two. 
Although the peers have materially re-rated, the offer implies a premium compared to peer multiples. Vote risk remains low, aided by selling by a shareholder with a blocking stake. 


Canvest (1381 HK): Attractive Spread with Steady Progress in Precondition Satisfaction

<ul>
<li>Back on the 28th November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avjennings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12578:1" rel="noopener">AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU)</a>, a reputable home builder in Australia/New Zealand, <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241128/pdf/06bywtrktl1j89.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered into a deed</a> granting the AVID consortium exclusive confirmatory due diligence.</li>
<li>The AVID consortium, comprising Proprium Capital Partners and AVID Property Group, pitched an NBIO (by way of a Scheme) of A$0.67/share. Singapore's SC Global (54.5% shareholder) was supportive.</li>
<li>In what appeared to be clean deal, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ho-bee-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18298:1" rel="noopener">Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP)</a> then acquired a <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241227/pdf/06d2p7fykvslm6.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">5.39% stake</a> on the 23rd December. Now they've made their own <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250115/pdf/06dk238wkx2778.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NBIO at A$0.70/share</a>. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 28th November, AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU), a reputable home builder in Australia/New Zealand, entered into a deed granting the AVID consortium exclusive confirmatory due diligence.
The AVID consortium, comprising Proprium Capital Partners and AVID Property Group, pitched an NBIO (by way of a Scheme) of A$0.67/share. Singapore's SC Global (54.5% shareholder) was supportive.
In what appeared to be clean deal, Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP) then acquired a 5.39% stake on the 23rd December. Now they've made their own NBIO at A$0.70/share. 


AVJennings (AVJ AU): Ho Bee's Superior Proposal

China

CPMC Holdings Limited is primarily engaged in the manufacture of packaging products for consumer goods in China. These products include tinplate packaging (such as milk powder cans, aerosol cans, metal caps, and steel barrels), aluminum packaging (two-piece beverage cans and one-piece bottles), and plastic packaging (for milk bottles, shampoo bottles, and other daily use products). The company was incorporated on October 25, 2007, and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

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CPMC (906 HK)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Jamco, AVJennings, Insignia Financial, Advanced Info Service/Thaicom

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bumpity Bumpity. Expect Bain To Match - Or Exceed - CC Capital's Terms

Both Offers remain non-binding. IFL should engage. Which means Bain needs to step up to at least match CC Capital. I'd be surprised if Tanarra...

David Blennerhassett

Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Lau's Scheme - The Premium Is Still Wrong. And Now Final

IF illiquid arbs are your thing and you think this get up, pay up to HK$0.95/share for a 3.4%/15% gross/annualised return (where possible), if mid...

David Blennerhassett

Canvest (1381 HK): Attractive Spread with Steady Progress in Precondition Satisfaction

Grandblue continues to progress toward satisfying the precondition, having secured NDRC approval. The remaining regulatory approvals required are...

Arun George

AVJennings (AVJ AU): Ho Bee's Superior Proposal

Although terms are indicative, buy a tick or three below Ho Bee's terms. You could also consider buying the Singaporean leg (quoted in AUD), and...

David Blennerhassett

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