Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shin Kong Financial Holding / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of August 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$56bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in August was ~47%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of August 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$56bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in August was ~47%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2024: Orora, Fuji Soft, J Tower, Seven & I, Taishin/Shin Kong, PropertyGuru

<ul>
<li>CTBC's (likely) goal is to boost <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong (2888 TT)</a>'s shares, so as to make the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taishin-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:715:1" rel="noopener">Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)</a> merger unpalatable for Shin Kong shareholders. That smells of opportunity.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> is trading cheap to NAV and its implied stub. It may well get cheaper.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>'s resulting supply/demand profile is mixed, but on balance, expect to see positive demand into the H1 earnings announcement. Watch for another buyback possibly announced then.</li>
</ul>


CTBC's (likely) goal is to boost Shin Kong (2888 TT)'s shares, so as to make the Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) merger unpalatable for Shin Kong shareholders. That smells of opportunity.

Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) is trading cheap to NAV and its implied stub. It may well get cheaper.

Toyota Motor (7203 JP)'s resulting supply/demand profile is mixed, but on balance, expect to see positive demand into the H1 earnings announcement. Watch for another buyback possibly announced then.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong/Taishin Financial, Jardine Matheson, Toyota Motors, Huafa Props

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)</a> premarketing its H Share listing, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terumo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6708:1" rel="noopener">Terumo Corp (4543 JP)</a> placement and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/99-speed-mart-retail-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40977:1" rel="noopener">99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK)</a> US$530 million IPO.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) premarketing its H Share listing, Terumo Corp (4543 JP) placement and 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK) US$530 million IPO.
Event-Driven developments: ESR Group (1821 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP). 



Weekly Deals Digest (01 Sep) - ESR, Canvest, China TCM, CPMC, Shinko, Silverlake, Terumo, Midea

<ul>
<li>I tally 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal. </li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed this week: the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taishin-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:715:1" rel="noopener">Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)</a> merger; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silverlake-axis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14150:1" rel="noopener">Silverlake Axis (SILV SP)</a>'s hybrid Offer. </li>
<li>Key updates took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huafa-property-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5841:1" rel="noopener">Huafa Property Services (982 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius (2696 HK)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric (6967 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvida-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14485:1" rel="noopener">Arvida (ARV NZ)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal. 
Two new deals were discussed this week: the Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) / Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) merger; and Silverlake Axis (SILV SP)'s hybrid Offer. 
Key updates took place on Huafa Property Services (982 HK), Shanghai Henlius (2696 HK),CPMC (906 HK), Seven &amp; I (3382 JP), Shinko Electric (6967 JP), and Arvida (ARV NZ).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Seven & I, Silverlake Axis, Shanghai Henlius, CPMC, Shinko Electric, Arvida

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology (002701 CH)</a>, via the Offeror Huarui Fengquan Development Limited, has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0829/2024082902348.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> SAMR has given its approval. ORG still requires MOFCOM, NDRC, and SAFE to sign off. </li>
<li>Interestingly, SASAC/NCSSF-backed Champion Holdings, the competing/initial bidder for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC (906 HK)</a>, secured MOFCOM, NDRC, and SAFE before SAMR clearance. Champion's regulatory pre-conditions took a little over seven months to secure.</li>
<li>
What now? SAMR is China's primary antitrust regulator (overlapping with NDRC). So this is positive for ORG. However, I'd still stick to ORG's pre-condition long stop in terms of timing. </li>
</ul>



ORG Technology (002701 CH), via the Offeror Huarui Fengquan Development Limited, has announced SAMR has given its approval. ORG still requires MOFCOM, NDRC, and SAFE to sign off. 
Interestingly, SASAC/NCSSF-backed Champion Holdings, the competing/initial bidder for CPMC (906 HK), secured MOFCOM, NDRC, and SAFE before SAMR clearance. Champion's regulatory pre-conditions took a little over seven months to secure.

What now? SAMR is China's primary antitrust regulator (overlapping with NDRC). So this is positive for ORG. However, I'd still stick to ORG's pre-condition long stop in terms of timing. 


CPMC (906 HK): SAMR Green Lights ORG's Offer

China

CPMC Holdings Limited is primarily engaged in the manufacture of packaging products for consumer goods in China. These products include tinplate packaging (such as milk powder cans, aerosol cans, metal caps, and steel barrels), aluminum packaging (two-piece beverage cans and one-piece bottles), and plastic packaging (for milk bottles, shampoo bottles, and other daily use products). The company was incorporated on October 25, 2007, and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

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CPMC (906 HK)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2024: Orora, Fuji Soft, J Tower, Seven & I, Taishin/Shin Kong, PropertyGuru

For the month of Aug, 10 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$56bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong/Taishin Financial, Jardine Matheson, Toyota Motors, Huafa Props

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Weekly Deals Digest (01 Sep) - ESR, Canvest, China TCM, CPMC, Shinko, Silverlake, Terumo, Midea

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (ESR, Canvest, China TCM, CPMC, Shinko, Tohokushinsha, Silverlake Axis) and ECM (Terumo,...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Seven & I, Silverlake Axis, Shanghai Henlius, CPMC, Shinko Electric, Arvida

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

CPMC (906 HK): SAMR Green Lights ORG's Offer

SAMR is China's primary antitrust regulator. Clearance is positive for ORG. Assuming mid-late Jan 2025 payment this is trading at a gross...

David Blennerhassett

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