Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Equities and Treasuries shine once the Fed's final rate hike is in, but the latter do so with much lower risk. </li>
<li>Commodities lag once the tightening cycle is in, likely reflecting declining economic activity as higher rates push down GDP growth.</li>
<li>After a weak six months, the return on Gold recovers quickly, comfortably beating the broader commodity index.</li>
</ul>


Equities and Treasuries shine once the Fed's final rate hike is in, but the latter do so with much lower risk. 
Commodities lag once the tightening cycle is in, likely reflecting declining economic activity as higher rates push down GDP growth.
After a weak six months, the return on Gold recovers quickly, comfortably beating the broader commodity index.


Asset Class Performance After the Final Hike – Part II Equities, Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>The wobbly first four months of the year are over, and it has become easier to detect clear trends in the market.</li><li>As you can see, our YTD performance has clearly picked up, and we’re confident that we'll continue to clearly outperform the CRB Commodity Index.</li><li>Consultancy Datagro announced on Thursday that Brazil's center-south region is anticipated to have a sugar output of 38.3 million tonnes in the current season, which began in April.</li></ul>

The wobbly first four months of the year are over, and it has become easier to detect clear trends in the market.As you can see, our YTD performance has clearly picked up, and we’re confident that we'll continue to clearly outperform the CRB Commodity Index.Consultancy Datagro announced on Thursday that Brazil's center-south region is anticipated to have a sugar output of 38.3 million tonnes in the current season, which began in April.

While Commodities sold off - we made profits // Some relief on the sugar front

<ul>
<li>Since 1990, OPEC has announced a production cut on 26 occasions.</li>
<li>Historically, oil prices have done well after OPEC announced a production cut, especially between three and 12 months after the announcement.</li>
<li>Expanding the analysis to commodity returns reveals that even though the prices of oil futures tend to fare well after oil production cut announcements, this is less so for Commodities. </li>
</ul>


Since 1990, OPEC has announced a production cut on 26 occasions.
Historically, oil prices have done well after OPEC announced a production cut, especially between three and 12 months after the announcement.
Expanding the analysis to commodity returns reveals that even though the prices of oil futures tend to fare well after oil production cut announcements, this is less so for Commodities. 


Oil Prices Soar when OPEC Cuts Production

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.</li>
<li>We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.</li>
<li>Worth noting- <em>further</em> breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.
We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.
Worth noting- further breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.


Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

<ul>
<li>After a substantial rally, the S&amp;P500 was unable to break above its 200-day MA and market indexes have violated steep 5-week uptrends; we view this pullback as a critical test.</li>
<li>This is where we see if prior breakout levels/important moving averages hold and market indexes make a higher low, or if this was nothing more than a bear market rally.</li>
<li>Barring a Fed pivot, and with Treasury yields and the DXY inflecting higher (and potentially commodities, too), it increases the odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.</li>
</ul>


After a substantial rally, the S&amp;P500 was unable to break above its 200-day MA and market indexes have violated steep 5-week uptrends; we view this pullback as a critical test.
This is where we see if prior breakout levels/important moving averages hold and market indexes make a higher low, or if this was nothing more than a bear market rally.
Barring a Fed pivot, and with Treasury yields and the DXY inflecting higher (and potentially commodities, too), it increases the odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.


Don't Fight the Fed; Pullback Underway as Rising DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield Back to Being Headwind

United States

Commodity Research Bureau BLS Spot Indices. CRB BLS Spot Indices base: (1967=100)

CRB Commodity Index (CRB CMDT INDEX)

Asset Class Performance After the Final Hike – Part II Equities, Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold

Equities and Treasuries shine once the Fed's final rate hike is in, but the latter do so with much lower risk. Commodities lag once the tightening...

Jeroen Blokland

While Commodities sold off - we made profits // Some relief on the sugar front

As you can see, our YTD performance has clearly picked up, and we’re confident that we'll continue to clearly outperform the CRB Commodity Index.

The Commodity Report

Oil Prices Soar when OPEC Cuts Production

A straightforward analysis shows that historically, oil prices have done well after OPEC announced a production cut, especially between three and...

Jeroen Blokland

Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

Pullback Underway; Problem: U.S. Dollar $DXY, Global 10-Yr Sovereign Yields, and Commodities All on the Rise Again; Actionable Themes: Energy,...

Vermilion Research

Don't Fight the Fed; Pullback Underway as Rising DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield Back to Being Headwind

$SPX $QQQ $IWM Pullback Underway as Rising $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield Back to Being Headwind; Commodities $DJP $BCOM Attempting to Break Out....

Vermilion Research