Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>After a substantial rally, the S&amp;P500 was unable to break above its 200-day MA and market indexes have violated steep 5-week uptrends; we view this pullback as a critical test.</li>
<li>This is where we see if prior breakout levels/important moving averages hold and market indexes make a higher low, or if this was nothing more than a bear market rally.</li>
<li>Barring a Fed pivot, and with Treasury yields and the DXY inflecting higher (and potentially commodities, too), it increases the odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.</li>
</ul>


After a substantial rally, the S&amp;P500 was unable to break above its 200-day MA and market indexes have violated steep 5-week uptrends; we view this pullback as a critical test.
This is where we see if prior breakout levels/important moving averages hold and market indexes make a higher low, or if this was nothing more than a bear market rally.
Barring a Fed pivot, and with Treasury yields and the DXY inflecting higher (and potentially commodities, too), it increases the odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.


Don't Fight the Fed; Pullback Underway as Rising DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield Back to Being Headwind

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week -0,5% lower EU CO2 Price to the moon The price of carbon in the EU’s emissions trading system hit a new all-time high on Friday.</li><li>The key reason for the rise was the surge in gas contracts for delivery next year.</li><li>That is making it more likely that increased burning of coal for power generation as an alternative to gas is more than a short-term blip to get the EU through a difficult winter.</li></ul>

The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week -0,5% lower EU CO2 Price to the moon The price of carbon in the EU’s emissions trading system hit a new all-time high on Friday.The key reason for the rise was the surge in gas contracts for delivery next year.That is making it more likely that increased burning of coal for power generation as an alternative to gas is more than a short-term blip to get the EU through a difficult winter.

<ul><li>Here is what is structurally wrong in the way leaders/politicians and people in general talk about the green transition, about fossil fuels, oil, gas and metals. A cyclical commodity bull market.</li><li>I'm in favor of combating man-made climate change and replacing most fossil fuels with renewables in the long term, but the way we are currently going about it is not realistic and will end badly for society and also in high commodity prices and much higher cost of living.</li><li>Why is that the case? Everyone wants renewable energy but no one wants to invest in the raw materials needed to build the EVs, the power lines, or the battery capacity. Due to political pressure, the financial world has had to jump on the #ESG bandwagon.</li></ul>

Here is what is structurally wrong in the way leaders/politicians and people in general talk about the green transition, about fossil fuels, oil, gas and metals. A cyclical commodity bull market.I'm in favor of combating man-made climate change and replacing most fossil fuels with renewables in the long term, but the way we are currently going about it is not realistic and will end badly for society and also in high commodity prices and much higher cost of living.Why is that the case? Everyone wants renewable energy but no one wants to invest in the raw materials needed to build the EVs, the power lines, or the battery capacity. Due to political pressure, the financial world has had to jump on the #ESG bandwagon.

<ul><li>Let me be clear, as we can measure the net money market liquidity, we can also see that there was a slight pickup in available funds over the last few weeks.</li><li>This is inconsistent with the FED policy and its goal to tighten financial conditions.</li><li>This fact was also IMO THE driving factor that drove markets higher over the last weeks as well. </li></ul>

Let me be clear, as we can measure the net money market liquidity, we can also see that there was a slight pickup in available funds over the last few weeks.This is inconsistent with the FED policy and its goal to tighten financial conditions.This fact was also IMO THE driving factor that drove markets higher over the last weeks as well. 

<ul><li>Commodities rallied as the dollar weakened and real rates declined again.</li><li>As you can see above, the CRB index bounced right from the 200D MA.</li><li>More important commodities did so even while GDP data was worse than expected. </li></ul>

Commodities rallied as the dollar weakened and real rates declined again.As you can see above, the CRB index bounced right from the 200D MA.More important commodities did so even while GDP data was worse than expected. 

United States

Commodity Research Bureau BLS Spot Indices. CRB BLS Spot Indices base: (1967=100)

CRB Commodity Index (CRB CMDT INDEX)

Don't Fight the Fed; Pullback Underway as Rising DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield Back to Being Headwind

$SPX $QQQ $IWM Pullback Underway as Rising $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield Back to Being Headwind; Commodities $DJP $BCOM Attempting to Break Out....

Vermilion Research

The Commodity Report #65

The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week -0,5% lower EU CO2 Price to the moon The price of carbon in the EU’s emissions trading system...

The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report #64

Here is what is structurally wrong in the way leaders/politicians and people in general talk about the green transition, about fossil fuels, oil,...

The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report #63

Let me be clear, as we can measure the net money market liquidity, we can also see that there was a slight pickup in available funds over the last...

The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report #62

Commodities rallied as the dollar weakened and real rates declined again. As you can see above, the CRB index bounced right from the 200D MA.

The Commodity Report