'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/930/original/2020-07-14_08-06-05.png?1594681580" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145930"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/928/original/2020-07-14_07-58-53.png?1594681168" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145928"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/create-sd-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12945:1" rel="noopener">Create SD (3148 JP)</a> -</strong> Of the larger-cap companies reporting yesterday, drugstore Create SD had the best overall Results Score, although the company is forecasting lower profits and operating margins for the current year. The zero market-implied long-term growth rate is overly conservative, and the shares have yet to reach a new Relative Price Score high, suggesting further upside.   </p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>51 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 14 Positive / 3 Neutral / 34 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -4.7</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -14.9% Quarter YoY / -2.2% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.6ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 37%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>22 Annual • 8 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 5 Positive / 3 Neutral / 14 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 4 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: </strong>-7.7</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
Create SD (3148 JP) - Of the larger-cap companies reporting yesterday, drugstore Create SD had the best overall Results Score, although the company is forecasting lower profits and operating margins for the current year. The zero market-implied long-term growth rate is overly conservative, and the shares have yet to reach a new Relative Price Score high, suggesting further upside.   
DAILY STATS
51 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 14 Positive / 3 Neutral / 34 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -4.7

Average % Change in Revenue: -14.9% Quarter YoY / -2.2% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.6ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 37%
 22 Annual • 8 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 5 Positive / 3 Neutral / 14 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 4 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -7.7


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 13th July

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/126/826/original/File%202020-04-06%2014%2031%2044.jpeg?1586211571" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="126826"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Financial Times</div><p><strong>ABE ROLLS THE DICE</strong> - Japan's solution to the recent alarming rise in COVID-19 infections is to adopt a middle way between those adopted by Sweden and the lockdown countries. The full details will emerge later today but will include constraints on social gatherings in certain major cities as well as a stimulus package equivalent to 20% of GDP. In a tacit acknowledgement that Japanese non-consumer facing businesses cannot function from home, companies will be requested to comply with the principle of 'stay-at-home' as much as possible; however, public transportation systems will operate as usual with no reduction in capacity. The measures will be in place until the end of the extended Golden Week holiday period that ends on 6th March. In effect, Japan will be in semi-social-distancing mode for the next three weeks. After that, should the R0 be below 1, Japan reverts to business-as-usual.</p><p><strong>BIFURCATION</strong> - The implications of these policies for the market should be considered positive and when combined with the stimulus package reduced the risk of a two-stage decline as noted in our market update <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-market-update-5th-april-2020-overshoot" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38114" rel="noopener"> Overshoot</a>. Domestically-orientated non-consumer facing businesses are relatively well-placed in this post-COVID world. Globally-exposed businesses will still suffer, and some will be dependent on government support to survive. We would look to add to oversold stocks in the former group while waiting for selling or shorting opportunities as sentiment towards the latter recovers before the inevitable comprise in earnings. Accordingly, this Insight is BULLISH.</p><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review the Revision and Results announced yesterday. The following quotation is a good summation of the philosophy behind "The Japan Experiment':-</p><blockquote><p><strong>"The Japanese system is a set of equations optimizing for minimal pressure for institutional change by maximising leadership wiggle room, subject to the constraint of providing the entire populace a minimally acceptable quality of life for a rich nation." - Richard Hostetter </strong></p></blockquote>

Source • Financial TimesABE ROLLS THE DICE - Japan's solution to the recent alarming rise in COVID-19 infections is to adopt a middle way between those adopted by Sweden and the lockdown countries. The full details will emerge later today but will include constraints on social gatherings in certain major cities as well as a stimulus package equivalent to 20% of GDP. In a tacit acknowledgement that Japanese non-consumer facing businesses cannot function from home, companies will be requested to comply with the principle of 'stay-at-home' as much as possible; however, public transportation systems will operate as usual with no reduction in capacity. The measures will be in place until the end of the extended Golden Week holiday period that ends on 6th March. In effect, Japan will be in semi-social-distancing mode for the next three weeks. After that, should the R0 be below 1, Japan reverts to business-as-usual.BIFURCATION - The implications of these policies for the market should be considered positive and when combined with the stimulus package reduced the risk of a two-stage decline as noted in our market update  Overshoot. Domestically-orientated non-consumer facing businesses are relatively well-placed in this post-COVID world. Globally-exposed businesses will still suffer, and some will be dependent on government support to survive. We would look to add to oversold stocks in the former group while waiting for selling or shorting opportunities as sentiment towards the latter recovers before the inevitable comprise in earnings. Accordingly, this Insight is BULLISH.In the DETAIL below, we shall review the Revision and Results announced yesterday. The following quotation is a good summation of the philosophy behind "The Japan Experiment':-"The Japanese system is a set of equations optimizing for minimal pressure for institutional change by maximising leadership wiggle room, subject to the constraint of providing the entire populace a minimally acceptable quality of life for a rich nation." - Richard Hostetter 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 6th April - The Japanese Experiment

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<p>The following provides a snapshot guide to the performance of all the main retail sectors in Japan in 2018-19 sector by sector including winners and losers. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-retail-review-and-ranking-2018-19-profit-growth-slowing-as-competition-increases" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In an accompanying Insight, we provide an overview of retail performance for the entire sector in 2018-19 by sales, profits and margins.</a></p>

The following provides a snapshot guide to the performance of all the main retail sectors in Japan in 2018-19 sector by sector including winners and losers. In an accompanying Insight, we provide an overview of retail performance for the entire sector in 2018-19 by sales, profits and margins.

Japan Retail Highlights 2018-19: Sector by Sector and Winners in Each Sector

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of May 15th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD27,467m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Lasertec, Disco, JX Advanced Metals, IHI, Furukawa Electric, Nintendo, Sumitomo Electric Industries, Mitsubishi.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of May 15th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD27,467m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Lasertec, Disco, JX Advanced Metals, IHI, Furukawa Electric, Nintendo, Sumitomo Electric Industries, Mitsubishi.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (May 15th): Kioxia, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Lasertec, Disco

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. </p>

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. 

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Japan

CREATE SD HOLDINGS Co Ltd operates a chain of drug stores based in Kanagawa. The Company sells medical supplies, cosmetics, foodstuff, baby products and daily goods. CREATE SD HOLDINGS also sells prescription medicine.

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Create Sd Holdings Co (3148 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 13th July

Create SD (3148 JP) - Of the larger-cap companies reporting yesterday, drugstore Create SD had the best overall Results Score, although the...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 6th April - The Japanese Experiment

ABE ROLLS THE DICE - Japan's solution to the recent alarming rise in COVID-19 infections is to adopt a middle way between those adopted by Sweden...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Retail Highlights 2018-19: Sector by Sector and Winners in Each Sector

The following provides a snapshot guide to the performance of all the main retail sectors in Japan in 2018-19 sector by sector including winners...

Michael Causton

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (May 15th): Kioxia, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Lasertec, Disco

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP), Lasertec...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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