Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The capital requirements for banks will be suicide to returns.</li><li>The Financial Stability Board (FSB) will destroy banks with their regulations, in order that they may be saved in a crisis.</li><li>It&rsquo;s ironic if not absurd.</li><li>This does not mean to say, that we believe banks should be highly leveraged, or engage in complicated, risky, murky businesses.</li><li>But it feels a bit like Basel got it immensely wrong, and is going over-board on its amends.</li></ul>

The capital requirements for banks will be suicide to returns.The Financial Stability Board (FSB) will destroy banks with their regulations, in order that they may be saved in a crisis.It&rsquo;s ironic if not absurd.This does not mean to say, that we believe banks should be highly leveraged, or engage in complicated, risky, murky businesses.But it feels a bit like Basel got it immensely wrong, and is going over-board on its amends.

TLAC Regulations Will Destroy Banks as Much as it Saves Them

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena / Event-Driven

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS IM)

<ul>
<li>The Italian government sold a 15% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banca-monte-dei-paschi-di-sien" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21162:1" rel="noopener">Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sien (BMPS IM)</a>, reducing its holding to 11.7%, signaling potential acquisition interest.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bpm-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28121:1" rel="noopener">Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anima-holding-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21153:1" rel="noopener">Anima Holding (ANIM IM)</a>’s recent share purchases in BMPS suggest strategic positioning for a potential future acquisition within the Italian banking sector.</li>
<li>BMPS's improved financial performance, attractive valuation (5.2x Fwd NTM P/E and 0.6x P/BVPS, and heightened investor interest create favorable conditions for a merger or acquisition.</li>
</ul>


The Italian government sold a 15% stake in Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sien (BMPS IM), reducing its holding to 11.7%, signaling potential acquisition interest.

Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM) and Anima Holding (ANIM IM)’s recent share purchases in BMPS suggest strategic positioning for a potential future acquisition within the Italian banking sector.
BMPS's improved financial performance, attractive valuation (5.2x Fwd NTM P/E and 0.6x P/BVPS, and heightened investor interest create favorable conditions for a merger or acquisition.


Monte Dei Paschi Poised for Strategic Merger Opportunity

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Credit Agricole has acquired a 9.18% stake in Banco BPM, sparking takeover bid speculation; Italy is Credit Agricole’s biggest banking market ex-France, where it has been very active on M&amp;A</li>
<li>For Credit Agricole, in our view, Banco BPM’s strong Northern Italian footprint, its cleaner and stronger balance sheet and its asset management arm are all big attractions for this asset</li>
<li>We remain positive on Banco BPM, one of our 2022 High Conviction Ideas; not only a modestly valued potential M&amp;A target, but its valuations are also underpinned by improving fundamentals</li>
</ul>


Credit Agricole has acquired a 9.18% stake in Banco BPM, sparking takeover bid speculation; Italy is Credit Agricole’s biggest banking market ex-France, where it has been very active on M&amp;A
For Credit Agricole, in our view, Banco BPM’s strong Northern Italian footprint, its cleaner and stronger balance sheet and its asset management arm are all big attractions for this asset
We remain positive on Banco BPM, one of our 2022 High Conviction Ideas; not only a modestly valued potential M&amp;A target, but its valuations are also underpinned by improving fundamentals


Banco BPM: Credit Agricole Makes Its Move

Bond market data and technology, BondEvalue

BondEvalue

Bond market data and technology

BondEvalue is a Singapore-based Fintech that specializes in bond market data and technology. The company's information services business offers bond market data on hard-currency corporate & sovereign bonds across Asia, Middle East, Europe and the Americas. The data, which includes bond prices, yields, news and analytics, is offered to end investors via interactive Mobile and Web Apps. Investors can sign up for a free trial of the service either via the company's website (https://bondevalue.com) or by downloading the BondEvalue Mobile App (http://onelink.to/wej7jq). BondEvalue is also developing an electronic bond exchange, BondbloX in Singapore that allows investors to trade bonds electronically in smaller sizes (US$1,000 or equivalent). For more information, visit https://www.bondblox.com/

Bond Market Data and Technology

Credit

US equity markets ended higher, with the S&amp;P and Nasdaq up 0.6% and 1.2% respectively. Energy and Consumer Discretionary led the gainers, up 3.1% and 2.8% while Materials led the losers, down 1.4%. US 10Y Treasury yields soared 11bp to 1.62%. European markets were mostly higher with the DAX and CAC up 0.9% each while FTSE was down 0.3%. Brazil’s Bovespa was down 0.9%. In the Middle East, UAE’s ADX was down 0.3% while Saudi TASI was flat. Asian markets have opened mixed – Shanghai and HSI were down 0.6% and 0.3% while HSI and Nikkei were up 1.1% and 1.4% respectively. US IG CDS spreads were flat and HY CDS spreads widened 0.1bp. EU Main CDS spreads were flat and Crossover CDS spreads were 0.2bp wider. Asia ex-Japan CDS spreads tightened 2.7bp.

Nomura, Credit Agricole, NAB Launch $ Bonds; Macro; Rating Changes; New Bond Issues; Top Gainers ...

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Executive Summary: Issuance expectations are often a topic of anxiety for actively trading investors. The concern is that if issuance is expected to be large, then the value of the currently on-the-run security may fall as the market moves into the new security. Our experience is that timing matters. Any decline generally represents a buying opportunity in the older security; however, it can take a week or two for the security to regain lost value. As such, unexpected debt issuance just before quarter-end can be painful.With leverage ratios yet to be a requirement for Eurozone area banks, risk-weighted asset (RWA) capital ratios remain the constraining capital measure. By this standard, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bnp-paribas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:525:1" rel="noopener">BNP Paribas (BNP FP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-agricole-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21373:1" rel="noopener">Credit Agricole Group (ACAFP)</a> remain underweight in Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond issuance.Amongst UK banks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN)</a> looks to have a surplus of AT1 bonds from a RWA capital ratio perspective. However, we calculate a deficiency relative to its leverage capital ratio needs. Basel IV inflation may diminish the RWA-base surplus; but for now, HSBC’s leverage ratio is its AT1 governor.In terms of Tier 2 needs, Eurozone banks are largely where they need to be from an efficiency perspective with the main exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cooperatieve-rabobank-ua" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28085:1" rel="noopener">Cooperative Rabobank UA (RABO NA)</a>. Meanwhile, HSBC may be in a position to reduce its Common Equity Tier 1 levels by issuing Tier 2 bonds while remaining well above minimum capital requirements. Concurrently, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered's (STAN LN)</a> Tier 2 levels are materially more than minimum regulatory requirements. These look better value than HSBC’s.

Executive Summary: Issuance expectations are often a topic of anxiety for actively trading investors. The concern is that if issuance is expected to be large, then the value of the currently on-the-run security may fall as the market moves into the new security. Our experience is that timing matters. Any decline generally represents a buying opportunity in the older security; however, it can take a week or two for the security to regain lost value. As such, unexpected debt issuance just before quarter-end can be painful.With leverage ratios yet to be a requirement for Eurozone area banks, risk-weighted asset (RWA) capital ratios remain the constraining capital measure. By this standard, BNP Paribas (BNP FP) and Credit Agricole Group (ACAFP) remain underweight in Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond issuance.Amongst UK banks, HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN) looks to have a surplus of AT1 bonds from a RWA capital ratio perspective. However, we calculate a deficiency relative to its leverage capital ratio needs. Basel IV inflation may diminish the RWA-base surplus; but for now, HSBC’s leverage ratio is its AT1 governor.In terms of Tier 2 needs, Eurozone banks are largely where they need to be from an efficiency perspective with the main exception of Cooperative Rabobank UA (RABO NA). Meanwhile, HSBC may be in a position to reduce its Common Equity Tier 1 levels by issuing Tier 2 bonds while remaining well above minimum capital requirements. Concurrently, Standard Chartered's (STAN LN) Tier 2 levels are materially more than minimum regulatory requirements. These look better value than HSBC’s. 

Debt Capital Surplus (Shortfall) And Trading Opportunities in European Banks

France

Credit Agricole S.A. is the lead bank of the Credit Agricole Group.  The Company acts as the central bank of the Group, coordinates its sales and marketing strategy and ensures the liquidity & solvency of each of the Caisses Regionales. Credit Agricole S.A., through its subsidiaries, designs and manages specialized financial products that are distributed primarily by the Caisses Regionales.

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Credit Agricole Sa (ACA FP)

TLAC Regulations Will Destroy Banks as Much as it Saves Them

The capital requirements for banks will be suicide to returns. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) will destroy banks with their regulations, in...

Daniel Tabbush

Monte Dei Paschi Poised for Strategic Merger Opportunity

Italian government sells stake in BMPS, sparking acquisition interest amid improved financials and attractive valuation.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Banco BPM: Credit Agricole Makes Its Move

Credit Agricole's initial stake in Banco BPM suggests the first step for further acquisitive growth in Italy; based on the CreVal deal, this could...

Victor Galliano

Nomura, Credit Agricole, NAB Launch $ Bonds; Macro; Rating Changes; New Bond Issues; Top Gainers ...

US equity markets ended higher, with the S&P and Nasdaq up 0.6% and 1.2% respectively. Energy and Consumer Discretionary led the gainers, up...

BondEvalue

Debt Capital Surplus (Shortfall) And Trading Opportunities in European Banks

Timing matters. A price decline in an on-the-run bond due to issuance represents a buying opportunity; however, it can take time to regain value....

Hank Calenti, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TLAC Regulations Will Destroy Banks as Much as it Saves Them

The capital requirements for banks will be suicide to returns. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) will destroy banks with their regulations, in...

Daniel Tabbush

Monte Dei Paschi Poised for Strategic Merger Opportunity

​Italian government sells stake in BMPS, sparking acquisition interest amid improved financials and attractive valuation.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Banco BPM: Credit Agricole Makes Its Move

Credit Agricole's initial stake in Banco BPM suggests the first step for further acquisitive growth in Italy; based on the CreVal deal, this could...

Victor Galliano

Nomura, Credit Agricole, NAB Launch $ Bonds; Macro; Rating Changes; New Bond Issues; Top Gainers ...

US equity markets ended higher, with the S&P and Nasdaq up 0.6% and 1.2% respectively. Energy and Consumer Discretionary led the gainers, up...

BondEvalue

Debt Capital Surplus (Shortfall) And Trading Opportunities in European Banks

Timing matters. A price decline in an on-the-run bond due to issuance represents a buying opportunity; however, it can take time to regain value....

Hank Calenti, CFA

Italian government sells stake in BMPS, sparking acquisition interest amid improved financials and attractive valuation.