Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Crédit Agricole already owns 29.3% of Banco BPM, leaving only a modest gap to the roughly one-third share it is reportedly expected to receive in a break-up.</li>
<li>A plausible split would leave UniCredit with most of BPM’s Commercial and CIB businesses, while CA takes Agos, insurance links and selected branches or customers.</li>
<li>We value a joint UniCredit/CA transaction at €18.50/share versus BAMI at €16.40; our probability-weighted value is €16.87.</li>
</ul>


Crédit Agricole already owns 29.3% of Banco BPM, leaving only a modest gap to the roughly one-third share it is reportedly expected to receive in a break-up.
A plausible split would leave UniCredit with most of BPM’s Commercial and CIB businesses, while CA takes Agos, insurance links and selected branches or customers.
We value a joint UniCredit/CA transaction at €18.50/share versus BAMI at €16.40; our probability-weighted value is €16.87.


Unicredit & Crédit Agricole / Banco BPM: Divide and Bid

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena / Event-Driven

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS IM)

<ul>
<li>AGCM has opened an in-depth review of Intesa/MPS, with specific concerns around local banking overlaps and Intesa’s prospective Generali stake.</li>
<li>Crédit Agricole’s 29.3% BPM holding raises the execution hurdle for MPS, although the revised synergy split strengthens the economics of the BPM-only route.</li>
<li>Our revised value is €11.85/share, slightly below spot. Intesa remains the likelier outcome, while BPM still looks the more realistic of MPS’s two bids.</li>
</ul>


AGCM has opened an in-depth review of Intesa/MPS, with specific concerns around local banking overlaps and Intesa’s prospective Generali stake.
Crédit Agricole’s 29.3% BPM holding raises the execution hurdle for MPS, although the revised synergy split strengthens the economics of the BPM-only route.
Our revised value is €11.85/share, slightly below spot. Intesa remains the likelier outcome, while BPM still looks the more realistic of MPS’s two bids.


Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,370/1,376 points (25-day EMA/50-day EMA) and the support at 1,360/1,355 points.</li><li>If there are indications of an economic slowdown while inflation remains persistently high, it could negatively impact both the US stock markets and global equity markets.</li><li>This reflects signs of recovery in the UK economy, a crucial factor prompting the FMS in April to increase the investment weight of UK markets.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,370/1,376 points (25-day EMA/50-day EMA) and the support at 1,360/1,355 points.If there are indications of an economic slowdown while inflation remains persistently high, it could negatively impact both the US stock markets and global equity markets.This reflects signs of recovery in the UK economy, a crucial factor prompting the FMS in April to increase the investment weight of UK markets.

<ul>
<li>MPS has launched all-share offers for Banco BPM and Banca Generali, transforming its defence against Intesa into a broader consolidation strategy centred on an independent Italian banking group.</li>
<li>Friday closes imply a −2.7% spread for Banco BPM and +8.0% for Banca Generali, highlighting sharply different execution expectations across the two proposed transactions.</li>
<li>Our scenario analysis values MPS at €12.03/share, 4.0% above spot; Banco BPM alone looks credible, while Banca Generali remains the harder leg given Generali’s control.</li>
</ul>


MPS has launched all-share offers for Banco BPM and Banca Generali, transforming its defence against Intesa into a broader consolidation strategy centred on an independent Italian banking group.
Friday closes imply a −2.7% spread for Banco BPM and +8.0% for Banca Generali, highlighting sharply different execution expectations across the two proposed transactions.
Our scenario analysis values MPS at €12.03/share, 4.0% above spot; Banco BPM alone looks credible, while Banca Generali remains the harder leg given Generali’s control.


Intesa / MPS: Lovaglio Turns Defence Into Expansion

France

Credit Agricole S.A. is the lead bank of the Credit Agricole Group.  The Company acts as the central bank of the Group, coordinates its sales and marketing strategy and ensures the liquidity & solvency of each of the Caisses Regionales. Credit Agricole S.A., through its subsidiaries, designs and manages specialized financial products that are distributed primarily by the Caisses Regionales.

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Credit Agricole Sa (ACA FP)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Unicredit & Crédit Agricole / Banco BPM: Divide and Bid

Crédit Agricole already owns most of the one-third of Banco BPM it could receive in a break-up. That makes the reported UniCredit/CA structure more...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Intesa / MPS: One Bid, Two Headaches

AGCM has raised the remedy risk for Intesa just as Crédit Agricole hardens its stance on BPM. The Italian banking endgame now looks less...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

US Employment in April

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,370/1,376 points (25-day EMA/50-day EMA) and the support at...

Krungthai XSpring

Intesa / MPS: Lovaglio Turns Defence Into Expansion

MPS has changed the shape of the Intesa battle with two new bids of its own. The shareholder arithmetic, deal mechanics and relative spreads now...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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