'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/891/original/2020-07-20_11-11-13.png?1595211104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146891"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/894/original/2020-07-20_11-42-42.png?1595213322" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146894"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>RELATIVE PRICE - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/895/original/2020-07-20_11-58-18.png?1595214235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146895"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>RESULTS DRIVER - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress.

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.Source • Japan AnalyticsRELATIVE PRICE - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.Source • Japan AnalyticsRESULTS DRIVER - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* Poor Operating Result:Aeon Financial Service (8570.JP) [AFS] reported a FY 1Q20 operating loss of JPY 0.8 bn, and a net loss of JPY 1.1 bn. The poor result was driven by JPY 30.7 bn in net loss provisions, as credit quality across AFS deteriorated well beyond expectations resultant of the global slowdown attributed to COVID-19;* ASEAN Risk: Aeon Thana Sinsap (ATS.TB) [ATS], AFS’ 54.3% owned subsidiary) reported a 46% YOY decline results to THB 530 mn, as ATS temporarily closed 70 branches for about six weeks through mid-May due to COVID-19, and offered credit assistance to customers in line with the Bank of Thailand’s relief measures. Aeon Credit Service Berhad (ACSM.HK) reported results of MYR 26.3 mn  - declining 69% YOY in 1Q to MYR 26.3 mn. The Malaysian government’s Movement Control Order (MCO) to prevent the spread of COVID-19 had a negative impact on local business activities,*Dividend Cut: FY 2/21 DPS guidance of JPY 23 is a sharp reduction in DPS – but in line with the projected profit decline and works out to a dividend payout ratio of 50%-100%. This was a negative surprise as AFS had made a convincing argument for dividend stability at the FY 2/20 earnings briefing. If a 2nd wave of COVID-19 occurs, we’d expect the dividend to decline to zero.

* Poor Operating Result:Aeon Financial Service (8570.JP) [AFS] reported a FY 1Q20 operating loss of JPY 0.8 bn, and a net loss of JPY 1.1 bn. The poor result was driven by JPY 30.7 bn in net loss provisions, as credit quality across AFS deteriorated well beyond expectations resultant of the global slowdown attributed to COVID-19;* ASEAN Risk: Aeon Thana Sinsap (ATS.TB) [ATS], AFS’ 54.3% owned subsidiary) reported a 46% YOY decline results to THB 530 mn, as ATS temporarily closed 70 branches for about six weeks through mid-May due to COVID-19, and offered credit assistance to customers in line with the Bank of Thailand’s relief measures. Aeon Credit Service Berhad (ACSM.HK) reported results of MYR 26.3 mn  - declining 69% YOY in 1Q to MYR 26.3 mn. The Malaysian government’s Movement Control Order (MCO) to prevent the spread of COVID-19 had a negative impact on local business activities,*Dividend Cut: FY 2/21 DPS guidance of JPY 23 is a sharp reduction in DPS – but in line with the projected profit decline and works out to a dividend payout ratio of 50%-100%. This was a negative surprise as AFS had made a convincing argument for dividend stability at the FY 2/20 earnings briefing. If a 2nd wave of COVID-19 occurs, we’d expect the dividend to decline to zero.  

AEON Financial Services – ASEAN Weakness Results In Dividend Cut

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Equity Bottom-Up

*Weak May 2020 Data: ACOM (8572.JP) released poor May 2020 monthly performance data on June 10th which exhibited negative consumer lending growth for the first time since 2014  - declining 0.6% YOY during the month. ACOM is chronically understates kaburai risk;* No Guidance Still: Senior management did not issue FY3/21 guidance, we remain in the dark regarding treatment of credit costs and its overseas operations; and  * MUFG Should Struggle Globally Too: The lack of provisioning is far from the only problem MUFG must manage. Post-COVID-19, we calculate that MUFG America’s will have a regulatory capital shortfall of up to USD 6.5 bn or 40% of MUFG America’s stated equity; continued impairments on subsidiaries; significant Softbank (9984.JP) exposure; and Morgan Stanley’s (MS.US) MUFG dilutive E*Trade (ETFC.US) transaction.

*Weak May 2020 Data: ACOM (8572.JP) released poor May 2020 monthly performance data on June 10th which exhibited negative consumer lending growth for the first time since 2014  - declining 0.6% YOY during the month. ACOM is chronically understates kaburai risk;* No Guidance Still: Senior management did not issue FY3/21 guidance, we remain in the dark regarding treatment of credit costs and its overseas operations; and  * MUFG Should Struggle Globally Too: The lack of provisioning is far from the only problem MUFG must manage. Post-COVID-19, we calculate that MUFG America’s will have a regulatory capital shortfall of up to USD 6.5 bn or 40% of MUFG America’s stated equity; continued impairments on subsidiaries; significant Softbank (9984.JP) exposure; and Morgan Stanley’s (MS.US) MUFG dilutive E*Trade (ETFC.US) transaction.

* ACOM Is Challenged: On May 14th, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Holdings Group’s (8306.JP) [MUFG] subsidiary ACOM (8572.JP) posted its results  - which came in line with its downward revision two weeks prior. Forecasts were abandoned for FY 3/21. Going forward, ACOM expects the number of interest refund claims to decline 20% YOY in FY 3/21, which appears predicated on the number of refund claims dropping 27.3% YOY in April. April witnessed the number of new loan applications decline 34.7% YOY; new customers decline 37.2%; and the balance of unsecured loans increase 1.3%; and * Other Strains At MUFG: ACOM is far from the only headache at MUFG: post-COVID-19, we calculate that MUFG America’s will have a regulatory capital shortfall of up to USD 6.5 bn or 40% of MUFG America’s stated equity; impairments on subsidiaries; significant Softbank (9984.JP) exposure; and Morgan Stanley’s (MS.US) MUFG dilutive E*Trade (ETFC.US) transaction.

* ACOM Is Challenged: On May 14th, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Holdings Group’s (8306.JP) [MUFG] subsidiary ACOM (8572.JP) posted its results  - which came in line with its downward revision two weeks prior. Forecasts were abandoned for FY 3/21. Going forward, ACOM expects the number of interest refund claims to decline 20% YOY in FY 3/21, which appears predicated on the number of refund claims dropping 27.3% YOY in April. April witnessed the number of new loan applications decline 34.7% YOY; new customers decline 37.2%; and the balance of unsecured loans increase 1.3%; and * Other Strains At MUFG: ACOM is far from the only headache at MUFG: post-COVID-19, we calculate that MUFG America’s will have a regulatory capital shortfall of up to USD 6.5 bn or 40% of MUFG America’s stated equity; impairments on subsidiaries; significant Softbank (9984.JP) exposure; and Morgan Stanley’s (MS.US) MUFG dilutive E*Trade (ETFC.US) transaction. 

* ACOM’s Chronic Kaburai Underestimation: After the market close on April 24th, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Holdings Group’s (8306.JP) [MUFG] subsidiary ACOM (8572.JP) announced a revisions to its FY (March) 2020 earnings forecasts, lowering its operating profit by JPY 12 bn (13.7%) reflecting a JPY 19.7 bn in kaburai interest repayment provisions; and* Pig Piling At MUFG: ACOM is far from the only headache at MUFG: post-COVID-19, we calculate that MUFG America’s will have a regulatory capital shortfall of up to USD 6.5 bn or 40% of MUFG America’s stated equity; impairments on subsidiaries; significant Softbank (9984.JP) exposure; and Morgan Stanley’s (MS.US) MUFG dilutive E*Trade (ETFC.US) transaction.

* ACOM’s Chronic Kaburai Underestimation: After the market close on April 24th, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Holdings Group’s (8306.JP) [MUFG] subsidiary ACOM (8572.JP) announced a revisions to its FY (March) 2020 earnings forecasts, lowering its operating profit by JPY 12 bn (13.7%) reflecting a JPY 19.7 bn in kaburai interest repayment provisions; and* Pig Piling At MUFG: ACOM is far from the only headache at MUFG: post-COVID-19, we calculate that MUFG America’s will have a regulatory capital shortfall of up to USD 6.5 bn or 40% of MUFG America’s stated equity; impairments on subsidiaries; significant Softbank (9984.JP) exposure; and Morgan Stanley’s (MS.US) MUFG dilutive E*Trade (ETFC.US) transaction.

Japan

Credit Saison Co., Ltd. is a consumer credit company.  The Company provides financial services such as credit cards, consumer installment credits, loan guarantees, loans, consignment operations, and leases.

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Credit Saison (8253 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing...

Campbell Gunn

AEON Financial Services – ASEAN Weakness Results In Dividend Cut

* Poor Operating Result:Aeon Financial Service (8570.JP) [AFS] reported a FY 1Q20 operating loss of JPY 0.8 bn, and a net loss of JPY 1.1 bn. The...

Thomas J. Monaco

MUFG – ACOM Monthly Data Disappoints

*Weak May 2020 Data: ACOM (8572.JP) released poor May 2020 monthly performance data on June 10th which exhibited negative consumer lending growth...

Thomas J. Monaco

MUFG – ACOM Is Uninspiring

* ACOM Is Challenged: On May 14th, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Holdings Group’s (8306.JP) [MUFG] subsidiary ACOM (8572.JP) posted its results - which...

Thomas J. Monaco

MUFG – When It Rains, It Pours

* ACOM’s Chronic Kaburai Underestimation: After the market close on April 24th, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Holdings Group’s (8306.JP) [MUFG]...

Thomas J. Monaco

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