Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Monday market dynamics suggest more liquidity is needed to limit contagion risks.</li>
<li>5% is the magic level at which things start to break. The Fed needs time to make things whole again before resuming rate hikes.</li>
<li>Recent events will profoundly impact consumer and business confidence and increase the odds of a recession. Just watch oil!</li>
</ul>


Monday market dynamics suggest more liquidity is needed to limit contagion risks.
5% is the magic level at which things start to break. The Fed needs time to make things whole again before resuming rate hikes.
Recent events will profoundly impact consumer and business confidence and increase the odds of a recession. Just watch oil!


Monetary Policy Update! Federal Reserve Unlikely to Hike Rates in March

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 17 March (after market close), Meritz Financial Group (138040 KS) announced a share buyback program worth 400 billion won, which represents 5.4% of its market cap.</li>
<li>Given the relative large size of this deal, it should have a positive impact on its share price, especially on a relative basis against its competitors. </li>
<li>The collapse of SVB Financial and uncertain investors' reactions on the purchase of Credit Suisse by UBS will likely add to the global investors' negative sentiment on the financial sector. </li>
</ul>


On 17 March (after market close), Meritz Financial Group (138040 KS) announced a share buyback program worth 400 billion won, which represents 5.4% of its market cap.
Given the relative large size of this deal, it should have a positive impact on its share price, especially on a relative basis against its competitors. 
The collapse of SVB Financial and uncertain investors' reactions on the purchase of Credit Suisse by UBS will likely add to the global investors' negative sentiment on the financial sector. 


Meritz Financial Group: A Large Share Buyback Amid Global Financials Uncertainties

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Interest rate risk in the system increased with the Fed’s steep interest rate hikes and due to the opt-out for many US banks on the AFS securities market-to-market capital hit</li>
<li>Uninsured and concentrated deposits, at the first hint of bank trouble, can take flight very quickly especially in the case of concentrated, key elements of the Silicon Vally Bank collapse</li>
<li>We believe that it is premature to look for buy opportunities in US banks, although we believe that the largest US banks are sound in terms of their balance sheets</li>
</ul>


Interest rate risk in the system increased with the Fed’s steep interest rate hikes and due to the opt-out for many US banks on the AFS securities market-to-market capital hit
Uninsured and concentrated deposits, at the first hint of bank trouble, can take flight very quickly especially in the case of concentrated, key elements of the Silicon Vally Bank collapse
We believe that it is premature to look for buy opportunities in US banks, although we believe that the largest US banks are sound in terms of their balance sheets


US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age

<ul>
<li>A concise overview of the latest developments in the unfolding banking crisis and the surprise central bank intervention following them.</li>
<li>Three key reasons equities markets did not collapse: 1) LIQUIDITY, 2) ECB, 3) The Outlier Narrative.</li>
<li>Other Macro data not to be overlooked and our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index moved away(!) from Fear this week.</li>
</ul>


A concise overview of the latest developments in the unfolding banking crisis and the surprise central bank intervention following them.
Three key reasons equities markets did not collapse: 1) LIQUIDITY, 2) ECB, 3) The Outlier Narrative.
Other Macro data not to be overlooked and our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index moved away(!) from Fear this week.


Weekly Market Monitor (10) - Central Banks Intervene to Fight Contagion Risks

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>FDIC’s decision to put <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/svb-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6017:1" rel="noopener">Svb Financial (SIVB US) </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/signature-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3489:1" rel="noopener">Signature Bank (SBNY US)</a> under receivership created the worldwide market panic.</li>
<li>We believe the contagion will be limited to US regional banks which could see rising funding costs and a deposit flight to larger US banks.</li>
<li>The Fed’s multiple rate hikes in 2022 have finally broken the US regional banks and we expect this event to slow down the rate hikes even further.</li>
</ul>


FDIC’s decision to put Svb Financial (SIVB US) and Signature Bank (SBNY US) under receivership created the worldwide market panic.
We believe the contagion will be limited to US regional banks which could see rising funding costs and a deposit flight to larger US banks.
The Fed’s multiple rate hikes in 2022 have finally broken the US regional banks and we expect this event to slow down the rate hikes even further.


Bond Market Monitor: A Contempt Against Depositors

Switzerland

Credit Suisse Group AG operates as a wealth management firm. The Company specializes in investment banking and offers wealth management activities aiming to capitalize on both the large pool of wealth within mature markets, as well as the significant growth in wealth in Asia Pacific and other emerging markets. Credit Suisse Group serves customers worldwide.

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Credit Suisse Group (CS US)

Monetary Policy Update! Federal Reserve Unlikely to Hike Rates in March

Elevated contagion risks, ongoing liquidity needs, and lack of trust likely force the Fed to pause, not end hiking rates.

Jeroen Blokland

US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age

US bank system strains reflects heightened interest rate risk, exacerbated by uninsured and concentrated deposits at a time of sharply rising...

Victor Galliano

Weekly Market Monitor (10) - Central Banks Intervene to Fight Contagion Risks

The Weekly Monitor - Your weekly chart storm covering all major developments in Macro, Sentiment, and Valuation and their impact on Portfolio...

Jeroen Blokland

Bond Market Monitor: A Contempt Against Depositors

We believe the SVB-SBNY contagion will be limited to US regional banks which could see rising funding costs and a deposit flight to larger US banks.

Bondcritic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Monetary Policy Update! Federal Reserve Unlikely to Hike Rates in March

Elevated contagion risks, ongoing liquidity needs, and lack of trust likely force the Fed to pause, not end hiking rates.

Jeroen Blokland

Meritz Financial Group: A Large Share Buyback Amid Global Financials Uncertainties

On 17 March (after market close), Meritz Financial Group (138040 KS) announced a share buyback program worth 400 billion won, which represents 5.4%...

Douglas Kim

US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age

US bank system strains reflects heightened interest rate risk, exacerbated by uninsured and concentrated deposits at a time of sharply rising...

Victor Galliano

Weekly Market Monitor (10) - Central Banks Intervene to Fight Contagion Risks

The Weekly Monitor - Your weekly chart storm covering all major developments in Macro, Sentiment, and Valuation and their impact on Portfolio...

Jeroen Blokland

Bond Market Monitor: A Contempt Against Depositors

We believe the SVB-SBNY contagion will be limited to US regional banks which could see rising funding costs and a deposit flight to larger US banks.

Bondcritic