APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Executive Summary</h2><ol>
<li>OPEC production cut plan supports our macro thesis of an oil-led, inflation expectations uplift.</li>
<li>Our original WTI peak base effect was +20 percent YOY. Now based on end-September oil it is +40 percent.</li>
<li>Our bullish case for EM is in large part based on improved pricing power in energy and material sectors.</li>
<li>OPEC action assists supply rebalance and steepens the path for inflation expectations and Fed action.</li>
<li>Strong oil supports our yield-based bullish view on banks and insurers.</li>
</ol><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/013/995/original/animal_spirits3.png?1475197603" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="13995"></figure><h2>Oil</h2>…

Executive Summary
OPEC production cut plan supports our macro thesis of an oil-led, inflation expectations uplift.
Our original WTI peak base effect was +20 percent YOY. Now based on end-September oil it is +40 percent.
Our bullish case for EM is in large part based on improved pricing power in energy and material sectors.
OPEC action assists supply rebalance and steepens the path for inflation expectations and Fed action.
Strong oil supports our yield-based bullish view on banks and insurers.
Oil…

ANIMAL SPIRITS Update: OPEC Fuels Base Effect - Oil, Inflation & The Fed, Yields, Financials and EM

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Trends in Technology, Demographics, and Borrowing Will Set the Course of Rates<ul><li class="p1">We hypothesise that three main factors will determine the future course of interest rates.</li><li class="p1">First, the "new economy" characterised by globalisation and technological advancement will have long-lasting effects on the balance of savings and investment and will continue to exert an effect on the demand for capital and labor for years to come.</li><li class="p1">Second, demographic changes—primarily an aging and longer-lived global population—will reduce the savings glut produced by rapid growth of the working-age population in recent decades.</li><li class="p1">Finally, the state of the credit cycle will weigh on consumer and corporate behaviour, as well.</li></ul>Analysts: Jim Sinegal &amp; Eric Compton

Trends in Technology, Demographics, and Borrowing Will Set the Course of RatesWe hypothesise that three main factors will determine the future course of interest rates.First, the "new economy" characterised by globalisation and technological advancement will have long-lasting effects on the balance of savings and investment and will continue to exert an effect on the demand for capital and labor for years to come.Second, demographic changes—primarily an aging and longer-lived global population—will reduce the savings glut produced by rapid growth of the working-age population in recent decades.Finally, the state of the credit cycle will weigh on consumer and corporate behaviour, as well.Analysts: Jim Sinegal &amp; Eric Compton

Financial Services Observer: Solving the Interest Rate Equation

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Suggestions that London's leading role as a hub for forex trading is under threat are much exaggerated. London, and to a lesser extent New York, continue to dominate, despite a small increase in the role of Hong Kong.

Suggestions that London's leading role as a hub for forex trading is under threat are much exaggerated. London, and to a lesser extent New York, continue to dominate, despite a small increase in the role of Hong Kong.

London Continues to Dominate Forex Trading

Chairman, sgtradex

Tan Chin-Hwee

Chairman

Traditional finance companies' competitive advantage operates like moats protecting mediaeval castles. Fintech companies must cross the moats of trust and regulation to break into the mainstream.It started with a question which seemed simple enough when I first started investing in technology despite my training in years as a value investor: How do you invest in a fintech (financial technology) start-up with the potential to revolutionise finance, but which has not gained wide traction or turned…

Traditional finance companies' competitive advantage operates like moats protecting mediaeval castles. Fintech companies must cross the moats of trust and regulation to break into the mainstream.It started with a question which seemed simple enough when I first started investing in technology despite my training in years as a value investor: How do you invest in a fintech (financial technology) start-up with the potential to revolutionise finance, but which has not gained wide traction or turned…

The Moats that Fintech Companies Must Cross

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, credit spreads and commodity prices, as well as their correlations and implied volatilities.” <figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/004/663/original/Market%20Risk.png?1450243661" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="4663"><figcaption class="figcaption">Source: DBS 2014 Annual Report p90</figcaption></figure>In the bank’s 2012 annual report the definition on page 81 was slightly different: “Market risk affects the economic values of financial instruments held by the…

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, credit spreads and commodity prices, as well as their correlations and implied volatilities.” Source: DBS 2014 Annual Report p90In the bank’s 2012 annual report the definition on page 81 was slightly different: “Market risk affects the economic values of financial instruments held by the…

With Radically Lower Oil Prices, Market Risk Assets Is a Focus

Switzerland

Credit Suisse Group AG operates as a wealth management firm. The Company specializes in investment banking and offers wealth management activities aiming to capitalize on both the large pool of wealth within mature markets, as well as the significant growth in wealth in Asia Pacific and other emerging markets. Credit Suisse Group serves customers worldwide.

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Credit Suisse Group (CSGN SW)

ANIMAL SPIRITS Update: OPEC Fuels Base Effect - Oil, Inflation & The Fed, Yields, Financials and EM

Executive Summary OPEC production cut plan supports our macro thesis of an oil-led, inflation expectations uplift. Our original WTI peak base...

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

Financial Services Observer: Solving the Interest Rate Equation

Trends in Technology, Demographics, and Borrowing Will Set the Course of Rates We hypothesise that three main factors will determine the future...

Morningstar, Inc.

London Continues to Dominate Forex Trading

Suggestions that London's leading role as a hub for forex trading is under threat are much exaggerated. London, and to a lesser extent New York,...

Bixmoor

The Moats that Fintech Companies Must Cross

Traditional finance companies' competitive advantage operates like moats protecting mediaeval castles. Fintech companies must cross the moats of...

Tan Chin-Hwee

With Radically Lower Oil Prices, Market Risk Assets Is a Focus

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse...

Daniel Tabbush

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