Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* Questionable Restructuring Plan: Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.NY) [Deutsche] announced a dramatic restructuring plan with targets which are likely too optimistic.* A US Problem Institution: The FDIC – following the Federal Reserve’s lead from a year ago – placed Deutsche US on problem institution status, citing operational weakness.* S&amp;P Downgrade:  Deutsche’s shares now trading in the single digits and CDS spreads are significantly wider. The belated S&amp;P downgrade continues to suggest that…

* Questionable Restructuring Plan: Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.NY) [Deutsche] announced a dramatic restructuring plan with targets which are likely too optimistic.* A US Problem Institution: The FDIC – following the Federal Reserve’s lead from a year ago – placed Deutsche US on problem institution status, citing operational weakness.* S&amp;P Downgrade:  Deutsche’s shares now trading in the single digits and CDS spreads are significantly wider. The belated S&amp;P downgrade continues to suggest that…

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

* Despite bottom-line improvement on a go-forward basis, deferred tax asset (DTA) write-downs are likely at major global financial companies  - beckoning for major 2018 EPS revisions.* Domestic institutions such as, Bank of America (BAC.US), Goldman Sachs (GS.US), and Morgan Stanley (MS.US) stand out with large DTAs in the US.  * Of the international companies with US subsidiaries, the Swiss financials would post shocking results, while HSBC Holdings could have a 25% EPS adjustment, by our…

* Despite bottom-line improvement on a go-forward basis, deferred tax asset (DTA) write-downs are likely at major global financial companies  - beckoning for major 2018 EPS revisions.* Domestic institutions such as, Bank of America (BAC.US), Goldman Sachs (GS.US), and Morgan Stanley (MS.US) stand out with large DTAs in the US.  * Of the international companies with US subsidiaries, the Swiss financials would post shocking results, while HSBC Holdings could have a 25% EPS adjustment, by our…

HSBC Holdings Plc – Likely Getting a Big Hickey From President Trump

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: <ul><li>Overweight Japan. </li><li>Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. </li><li>Actionable Sector/Group themes:<ol><li>Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. </li><li>Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. </li><li>Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.</li></ol></li></ul>

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: Overweight Japan. Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. Actionable Sector/Group themes:Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Global technicals still relay a bullish outlook. Breakouts and bullish inflections are widespread, especially in Europe and Japan right now, as well as once-laggard sectors like energy.  In addition to our weekly global market recap and outlook, today’s report highlights actionable investment opportunities in global energy stocks and European financials.

Global technicals still relay a bullish outlook. Breakouts and bullish inflections are widespread, especially in Europe and Japan right now, as well as once-laggard sectors like energy.  In addition to our weekly global market recap and outlook, today’s report highlights actionable investment opportunities in global energy stocks and European financials.

Buy Energy Stocks; Brent Is Bottoming; Japan Breaking Out; Buying Opportunity in European Financials

* China-style margin call could be lurking given the massive amount of leverage Western brokers have been handing their HNW clients;* Technology shares could be the impetus without catalysts beyond the well-priced for iPhone8 replacement cycle; and* Without many engines of growth remaining for the Western brokers beyond “margin finance”, there are very few reasons to own the space.Over a three week period in June 2015, the Chinese A-share market collapsed by about 30% - having soared over 150%…

* China-style margin call could be lurking given the massive amount of leverage Western brokers have been handing their HNW clients;* Technology shares could be the impetus without catalysts beyond the well-priced for iPhone8 replacement cycle; and* Without many engines of growth remaining for the Western brokers beyond “margin finance”, there are very few reasons to own the space.Over a three week period in June 2015, the Chinese A-share market collapsed by about 30% - having soared over 150%…

Switzerland

Credit Suisse Group AG operates as a wealth management firm. The Company specializes in investment banking and offers wealth management activities aiming to capitalize on both the large pool of wealth within mature markets, as well as the significant growth in wealth in Asia Pacific and other emerging markets. Credit Suisse Group serves customers worldwide.

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Credit Suisse Group (CSGN SW)

Deutsche Bank - Good Night Moon

* Questionable Restructuring Plan: Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.NY) [Deutsche] announced a dramatic restructuring plan with targets which are likely...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSBC Holdings Plc – Likely Getting a Big Hickey From President Trump

* Despite bottom-line improvement on a go-forward basis, deferred tax asset (DTA) write-downs are likely at major global financial companies -...

Thomas J. Monaco

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync. We see the bullish...

Vermilion Research

Buy Energy Stocks; Brent Is Bottoming; Japan Breaking Out; Buying Opportunity in European Financials

Global technicals still relay a bullish outlook. Breakouts and bullish inflections are widespread, especially in Europe and Japan right now, as...

Vermilion Research

Shanghai-Ed by Western Brokers

* China-style margin call could be lurking given the massive amount of leverage Western brokers have been handing their HNW clients;* Technology...

Thomas J. Monaco

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