Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Interest rate risk in the system increased with the Fed’s steep interest rate hikes and due to the opt-out for many US banks on the AFS securities market-to-market capital hit</li>
<li>Uninsured and concentrated deposits, at the first hint of bank trouble, can take flight very quickly especially in the case of concentrated, key elements of the Silicon Vally Bank collapse</li>
<li>We believe that it is premature to look for buy opportunities in US banks, although we believe that the largest US banks are sound in terms of their balance sheets</li>
</ul>


Interest rate risk in the system increased with the Fed’s steep interest rate hikes and due to the opt-out for many US banks on the AFS securities market-to-market capital hit
Uninsured and concentrated deposits, at the first hint of bank trouble, can take flight very quickly especially in the case of concentrated, key elements of the Silicon Vally Bank collapse
We believe that it is premature to look for buy opportunities in US banks, although we believe that the largest US banks are sound in terms of their balance sheets


US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A concise overview of the latest developments in the unfolding banking crisis and the surprise central bank intervention following them.</li>
<li>Three key reasons equities markets did not collapse: 1) LIQUIDITY, 2) ECB, 3) The Outlier Narrative.</li>
<li>Other Macro data not to be overlooked and our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index moved away(!) from Fear this week.</li>
</ul>


A concise overview of the latest developments in the unfolding banking crisis and the surprise central bank intervention following them.
Three key reasons equities markets did not collapse: 1) LIQUIDITY, 2) ECB, 3) The Outlier Narrative.
Other Macro data not to be overlooked and our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index moved away(!) from Fear this week.


Weekly Market Monitor (10) - Central Banks Intervene to Fight Contagion Risks

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>FDIC’s decision to put <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/svb-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6017:1" rel="noopener">Svb Financial (SIVB US) </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/signature-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3489:1" rel="noopener">Signature Bank (SBNY US)</a> under receivership created the worldwide market panic.</li>
<li>We believe the contagion will be limited to US regional banks which could see rising funding costs and a deposit flight to larger US banks.</li>
<li>The Fed’s multiple rate hikes in 2022 have finally broken the US regional banks and we expect this event to slow down the rate hikes even further.</li>
</ul>


FDIC’s decision to put Svb Financial (SIVB US) and Signature Bank (SBNY US) under receivership created the worldwide market panic.
We believe the contagion will be limited to US regional banks which could see rising funding costs and a deposit flight to larger US banks.
The Fed’s multiple rate hikes in 2022 have finally broken the US regional banks and we expect this event to slow down the rate hikes even further.


Bond Market Monitor: A Contempt Against Depositors

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

<ul>
<li>The recent rollout of a tax-deferred individual pension scheme marks a pivotal moment in the country's preparation for seismic shifts in its demographics.</li>
<li>The transition towards Pillar 3 of the retirement system has important implications for global asset allocators' long-term China investment thesis.</li>
<li>It's still early days, but there are ways to participate in the growth of private pensions. We look at the scale of the opportunities available and the potential beneficiaries.</li>
</ul>


The recent rollout of a tax-deferred individual pension scheme marks a pivotal moment in the country's preparation for seismic shifts in its demographics.
The transition towards Pillar 3 of the retirement system has important implications for global asset allocators' long-term China investment thesis.
It's still early days, but there are ways to participate in the growth of private pensions. We look at the scale of the opportunities available and the potential beneficiaries.


China's Fledgling Pensions Market: Are You Positioned to Cash In?

Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

<ul><li>At the September meeting, the FOMC raised their fed funds rate target by 75bps, or 3% in the last 7 months.</li><li>Powell has been quite clear that his intention is to put the long-term health of the economy top of his mind in his effort to quash inflation before it gets out of hand; remarking that “I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn't. We have to get supply and demand back into alignment. The way we do that is by slowing the economy.”</li><li>The last meeting demonstrated a hawkish shift in economic projections.</li></ul>

At the September meeting, the FOMC raised their fed funds rate target by 75bps, or 3% in the last 7 months.Powell has been quite clear that his intention is to put the long-term health of the economy top of his mind in his effort to quash inflation before it gets out of hand; remarking that “I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn't. We have to get supply and demand back into alignment. The way we do that is by slowing the economy.”The last meeting demonstrated a hawkish shift in economic projections.

Switzerland

Credit Suisse Group AG operates as a wealth management firm. The Company specializes in investment banking and offers wealth management activities aiming to capitalize on both the large pool of wealth within mature markets, as well as the significant growth in wealth in Asia Pacific and other emerging markets. Credit Suisse Group serves customers worldwide.

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Credit Suisse Group (CSGN SW)

US Bank Sector Stress – Old Fashioned Risks and a Regulatory Loophole Meet the Digital Age

US bank system strains reflects heightened interest rate risk, exacerbated by uninsured and concentrated deposits at a time of sharply rising...

Victor Galliano

Weekly Market Monitor (10) - Central Banks Intervene to Fight Contagion Risks

The Weekly Monitor - Your weekly chart storm covering all major developments in Macro, Sentiment, and Valuation and their impact on Portfolio...

Jeroen Blokland

Bond Market Monitor: A Contempt Against Depositors

We believe the SVB-SBNY contagion will be limited to US regional banks which could see rising funding costs and a deposit flight to larger US banks.

Bondcritic

China's Fledgling Pensions Market: Are You Positioned to Cash In?

China's aging population has captured investors' attention of late. What opportunities will shifting demographics bring to the fledgling private...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

US Economy - Key Macro Events This Week

This week's key events for the US economy include FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, updated CPI data for September on Thursday, and the Retail...

Investment Talk

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