Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

<p>While earnings integers on a number of equity market indices have been falling for a while, equities have held up extremely well globally and indeed made strong gains over the last five years. As measured by MSCI world, equities have risen 48% in USD terms, compounding at 8%. MXAPJ has done less well , up only 10% in 5 years for a Cagr of 2%. Index earnings have actually fallen  over that period in Asia in dollar terms by about 15% but the lack of a meaningful risk free rate of return has kept…</p>

While earnings integers on a number of equity market indices have been falling for a while, equities have held up extremely well globally and indeed made strong gains over the last five years. As measured by MSCI world, equities have risen 48% in USD terms, compounding at 8%. MXAPJ has done less well , up only 10% in 5 years for a Cagr of 2%. Index earnings have actually fallen  over that period in Asia in dollar terms by about 15% but the lack of a meaningful risk free rate of return has kept…

Money Matters: Is the Fed Behind the Curve?

<p>Turkey is not the only emerging market in the early stages of what could be a classic emerging market financial crisis (see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/money-matters-turkey-on-the-brink" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:7953">Money Matters: Turkey on the Brink?</a>). Mexico has found itself at the sharp end of rhetoric from the US president-elect but the economy was already in trouble.  Is another Tequila crisis brewing (or distilling)?</p><p>Mexico's current account deficit has been widening since 2010 and stands at around 3.5% of GDP. External debt has roughly doubled since 2009 and stands at about…</p>

Turkey is not the only emerging market in the early stages of what could be a classic emerging market financial crisis (see: Money Matters: Turkey on the Brink?). Mexico has found itself at the sharp end of rhetoric from the US president-elect but the economy was already in trouble.  Is another Tequila crisis brewing (or distilling)?Mexico's current account deficit has been widening since 2010 and stands at around 3.5% of GDP. External debt has roughly doubled since 2009 and stands at about…

Money Matters: Could Tequila Mixed with Moutai Be Explosive.

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li><div>Gold miners have crashed about a third since the August 25<sup>th</sup> note warning they were vulnerable to real yields (with which gold inversely correlates) heading higher – the worst looks over.</div></li>
<li><div><span lang="EN-US">With the USD index testing the 100 level, a new consensus has rapidly formed around loose US fiscal policy coinciding with tighter monetary policy in a re-run of the 1980s-dollar bull market.</span></div></li>
<li><div>
<span lang="EN-US">The US 10-yr yield on a currency hedged basis is attractive again to European/Japanese investors -renewed inflows should</span>…</div></li>
</ul>


Gold miners have crashed about a third since the August 25th note warning they were vulnerable to real yields (with which gold inversely correlates) heading higher – the worst looks over.
With the USD index testing the 100 level, a new consensus has rapidly formed around loose US fiscal policy coinciding with tighter monetary policy in a re-run of the 1980s-dollar bull market.

The US 10-yr yield on a currency hedged basis is attractive again to European/Japanese investors -renewed inflows should…


Reflation Trade Overshooting, as Eurozone Political Tail Risk Revives - 17th Nov 2016

<p>The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent catalysts that could give the dollar a final push through resistance and lead it to trend higher: The Italian referendum on constitutional reform on 4th December and the FOMC meeting on December 14th. </p><p>Although in theory the Italian referendum actually has nothing to do with Italy's continued membership of the Eurozone and hence the EU (remember Greece was…</p>

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent catalysts that could give the dollar a final push through resistance and lead it to trend higher: The Italian referendum on constitutional reform on 4th December and the FOMC meeting on December 14th. Although in theory the Italian referendum actually has nothing to do with Italy's continued membership of the Eurozone and hence the EU (remember Greece was…

Money Matters: The Road to Italeave and a Dollar Break-Out?

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<p>Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought the market was underpricing Trump winning have been shocked by the market reaction, flipping to a remarkably positive outlook. </p><p>This note looks at some of the structural underpinnings that inform this uncertainty and some elements of how we can start to model the likeliest outcomes going forward.</p>

Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought the market was underpricing Trump winning have been shocked by the market reaction, flipping to a remarkably positive outlook. This note looks at some of the structural underpinnings that inform this uncertainty and some elements of how we can start to model the likeliest outcomes going forward.

Switzerland

Credit Suisse Group AG is an international financial services group. The Group provides investment banking, private banking, and asset management services to customers located around the world.

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Credit Suisse (CSGN VX)

Money Matters: Is the Fed Behind the Curve?

While earnings integers on a number of equity market indices have been falling for a while, equities have held up extremely well globally and...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: Could Tequila Mixed with Moutai Be Explosive.

Turkey is not the only emerging market in the early stages of what could be a classic emerging market financial crisis (see: Money Matters: Turkey...

Stewart Paterson

Reflation Trade Overshooting, as Eurozone Political Tail Risk Revives - 17th Nov 2016

Gold miners have crashed about a third since the August 25th note warning they were vulnerable to real yields (with which gold inversely...

Sean Maher

Money Matters: The Road to Italeave and a Dollar Break-Out?

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent...

Stewart Paterson

Trump, OPEC and Uncertain Games

Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought...

Emad Mostaque

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