Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we examine the key challenges facing the sector and discuss potential paths forward for MFI-focused lenders. </li>
<li>Companies in this sector have seen sharp declines, with stocks down 45% from their 52-week highs and showing negative returns of -37% YTD.</li>
<li>Considering the Industry data, it would be fair to conclude that the pain in the industry is likely to persist.  CREDAG, SPANDANA, AUBANK, and IIB are key names to watch.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we examine the key challenges facing the sector and discuss potential paths forward for MFI-focused lenders. 
Companies in this sector have seen sharp declines, with stocks down 45% from their 52-week highs and showing negative returns of -37% YTD.
Considering the Industry data, it would be fair to conclude that the pain in the industry is likely to persist.  CREDAG, SPANDANA, AUBANK, and IIB are key names to watch.


Navigating MFI Consumer Credit Exuberance - A Rocky Road Head

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Belstar Microfinance Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/belstar-microfinance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43409:1" rel="noopener">Belstar Microfinance Ltd (3624918Z IN)</a> is looking to raise around US$156m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>Belstar Microfinance is a non-banking finance company (NBFC) in India with a focus on furnishing micro-enterprise loans. </li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.</li>
</ul>



Belstar Microfinance Ltd (3624918Z IN) is looking to raise around US$156m in its upcoming India IPO.
Belstar Microfinance is a non-banking finance company (NBFC) in India with a focus on furnishing micro-enterprise loans. 
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.


Belstar Microfinance Pre-IPO - Accelerating Profitability Growth With A Diversified Network

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Operational Performance: CAGrameen added ~1.9 Lc borrowers during Q1FY25, taking the total customer base to ~5 Mn customers (+13% YoY).</li><li>Disbursement growth tapered QoQ (-44% QoQ) owing to (i) Seasonal weakness generally seen in Q1, (ii) Severe heat wave across several regions and (iii) Operational limitations during general elections.</li><li>AUM growth was slower than our expectation at 21% YoY and de-grew by 2% QoQ. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Operational Performance: CAGrameen added ~1.9 Lc borrowers during Q1FY25, taking the total customer base to ~5 Mn customers (+13% YoY).Disbursement growth tapered QoQ (-44% QoQ) owing to (i) Seasonal weakness generally seen in Q1, (ii) Severe heat wave across several regions and (iii) Operational limitations during general elections.AUM growth was slower than our expectation at 21% YoY and de-grew by 2% QoQ. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CreditAccess Grameen Ltd. - In-Line Quarter, Near-Term Asset Quality Concerns to Persist!

Ethan Aw

Muthoot Microfin / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/muthoot-microfin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39950:1" rel="noopener">Muthoot Microfin (MUTHOOTM IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/muthoot-microfin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39950:1" rel="noopener"> </a>raised around US$115m in its Indian IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of its IPO range at INR291/share.</li>
<li>Muthoot Microfin is a microfinance institution providing micro-loans to women customers with a focus on the rural regions of India.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Muthoot Microfin (MUTHOOTM IN) raised around US$115m in its Indian IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of its IPO range at INR291/share.
Muthoot Microfin is a microfinance institution providing micro-loans to women customers with a focus on the rural regions of India.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Muthoot Microfin Lockup Expiry - Pre-IPO Investors Well in the Money Despite the Stock’s Performance

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Housing and Urban Development Corporation / Event-Driven

Housing and Urban Development Corporation (HUDCO IN)

Housing and Urban Development Corporation

<ul>
<li>We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 17 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, 19 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap and 2 new additions to MidCap.</li>
<li>The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six months.</li>
<li>Momentum on the upward migrations could sustain as active managers reposition their portfolios. Some stocks will have passive flows over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 17 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, 19 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap and 2 new additions to MidCap.
The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six months.
Momentum on the upward migrations could sustain as active managers reposition their portfolios. Some stocks will have passive flows over the next few months.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2024): Potential Changes as Momentum Recovers

India

CreditAccess Grameen is a leading Indian microfinance institution that provides micro-loans to women customers, predominantly in rural areas across India. The company offers a diverse range of financial products including income generation loans, family welfare loans, home improvement loans, and emergency loans. It is headquartered in Bengaluru, India, and was founded in 1999.

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CreditAccess Grameen (CREDAG IN)

Navigating MFI Consumer Credit Exuberance - A Rocky Road Head

The Pain in Consumer Leverage is now showing up in the earnings. "CreditAccess Grameen has revised its guidance for FY25 for the second time in...

Pranav Bhavsar

Belstar Microfinance Pre-IPO - Accelerating Profitability Growth With A Diversified Network

Belstar Microfinance Limited is looking to raise around US$156m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the company’s historical...

Akshat Shah

CreditAccess Grameen Ltd. - In-Line Quarter, Near-Term Asset Quality Concerns to Persist!

Operational Performance: CAGrameen added ~1.9 Lc borrowers during Q1FY25, taking the total customer base to ~5 Mn customers (+13% YoY).

Axis Direct

Muthoot Microfin Lockup Expiry - Pre-IPO Investors Well in the Money Despite the Stock’s Performance

Muthoot Microfin (MUTHOOTM IN) raised around US$115m in its Indian IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of its IPO range at INR291/share.

Ethan Aw

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2024): Potential Changes as Momentum Recovers

We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 17 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, 19 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap and 2 new adds...

Brian Freitas

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