Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>The rankings used for the June 2025 index rebal event will be based on yesterday's (4th June 2025) opening prices. The announcement will be after the close on Friday.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs/DELs (along with a tracker of all live spinoff/M&amp;A events which affect the index the next two quarters).</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
The rankings used for the June 2025 index rebal event will be based on yesterday's (4th June 2025) opening prices. The announcement will be after the close on Friday.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs/DELs (along with a tracker of all live spinoff/M&amp;A events which affect the index the next two quarters).


[Quiddity Index Jun25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Final Predictions APP and IBKR

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> is forecasted to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/discover-financial-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11966:1" rel="noopener">Discover Financial Services (DFS US)</a> in S&amp;P500 on 19 May following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capital-one-financial-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:255:1" rel="noopener">Capital One's</a> approved acquisition.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crh-plc-054117b2-cd70-470a-9efc-8f6fab2c83ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28655:1" rel="noopener">CRH (CRH US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase Global (COIN US)</a> are forecasted to be added by June-July following the expected acquisitions of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kellogg-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16090:1" rel="noopener">Kellogg Co (K US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15473:1" rel="noopener">Ansys Inc (ANSS US)</a>. </li>
<li>Zero changes are forecasted for S&amp;P500 at the June 2025 review due to limited strong addition candidates which will be selected as replacements of upcoming acquisitions.</li>
</ul>



AppLovin (APP US) is forecasted to replace Discover Financial Services (DFS US) in S&amp;P500 on 19 May following Capital One's approved acquisition.

CRH (CRH US) and Coinbase Global (COIN US) are forecasted to be added by June-July following the expected acquisitions of Kellogg Co (K US) and Ansys Inc (ANSS US). 
Zero changes are forecasted for S&amp;P500 at the June 2025 review due to limited strong addition candidates which will be selected as replacements of upcoming acquisitions.


S&P500: Additions In May & June 2025 Following Capital One's Approved Acquisition

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

James Hardie Industries Plc / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 24th March, building materials outfit <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/james-hardie-industries-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10937:1" rel="noopener">James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX AU)</a></strong> announced a cash/scrip merger with decking manufacturer <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azek-co-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36947:1" rel="noopener">Azek (AZEK US)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>JHX is offering 1.034 new JHX shares plus US$26.45/share in cash for each Azek share, or an implied $56.88 all-in price (at the time), a punchy 37.4% premium to undisturbed. </li>
<li>Apart from pushback on pricing for Azek, JHX shareholders have voiced opposition over the ASX granting a waiver, allowing the merger to proceed without a vote from JHX shareholders</li>
</ul>


On the 24th March, building materials outfit James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX AU) announced a cash/scrip merger with decking manufacturer Azek (AZEK US).
JHX is offering 1.034 new JHX shares plus US$26.45/share in cash for each Azek share, or an implied $56.88 all-in price (at the time), a punchy 37.4% premium to undisturbed. 
Apart from pushback on pricing for Azek, JHX shareholders have voiced opposition over the ASX granting a waiver, allowing the merger to proceed without a vote from JHX shareholders


James Hardie (JHX AU)/Azek (AZEK US) Merger: Risky, Expensive, And Poor Governance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shopify-inc-de74469e-4678-489b-9b50-a80a5790c5ef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25906:1" rel="noopener">Shopify (SHOP US)</a> is eligible for Nasdaq100 following its listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq on 31 March. Inclusion is anticipated in December 2025 or earlier as a replacement.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shopify-inc-de74469e-4678-489b-9b50-a80a5790c5ef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25906:1" rel="noopener">Shopify (SHOP US)</a> is expected to be added to R1000 and Krisp Mega in June 2025 due to a new domestic 10-K filing which results in a US nationality assignment.</li>
<li>The company can be considered for TMI and S&amp;P500 only if it re-domiciles to US. New filings and US headquarters point towards that direction, but no plans have been announced.</li>
</ul>



Shopify (SHOP US) is eligible for Nasdaq100 following its listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq on 31 March. Inclusion is anticipated in December 2025 or earlier as a replacement.

Shopify (SHOP US) is expected to be added to R1000 and Krisp Mega in June 2025 due to a new domestic 10-K filing which results in a US nationality assignment.
The company can be considered for TMI and S&amp;P500 only if it re-domiciles to US. New filings and US headquarters point towards that direction, but no plans have been announced.


Shopify (SHOP US): Adds to Cart Nasdaq100, S&P500, R1000 and Krisp After US Listing & Filing Changes

Ireland

CRH Public Limited Company provides building materials. The Company manufactures and distributes a wide range of architectural, infrastructure, and construction products for infrastructure, housing, and commercial projects. CRH serves customers Worldwide.

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CRH (CRH US)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

[Quiddity Index Jun25] S&P500/600 Jun25 Rebal: Final Predictions APP and IBKR

The S&P500 June rebal comes after the close on Friday 6 June. We expect two ADDs and two DELETEs but the S&P Index Committee is fickle...

Travis Lundy

S&P500: Additions In May & June 2025 Following Capital One's Approved Acquisition

COIN will be added to S&P500 at the close of 16 May as a replacement to the DFS acquisition. CRH has been removed from the addition candidates...

Dimitris Ioannidis

James Hardie (JHX AU)/Azek (AZEK US) Merger: Risky, Expensive, And Poor Governance

On balance, this isn’t inherently a "bad" deal,; but risky and expensive. Yet, JHX is down a massive 23% on the news. I think JHX has probably...

David Blennerhassett

Shopify (SHOP US): Adds to Cart Nasdaq100, S&P500, R1000 and Krisp After US Listing & Filing Changes

Following a rasel methodology update, Canada will be used as the country of headquarters resulting in a Canadian index nationality due to country...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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