Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

After 18 months of consistent decline, exports recorded a marginal uptrend in June 2016 while the rate of decline in imports slowed. Exports grew 1.3% y-o-y in June 2016 but the trend remains weak having declined 2% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average (3mma) basis in May 2016 compared to a fall of 4.2% y-o-y in May 2016. Imports fell by 7.3% y-o-y in June 2016 compared to a decline of 13.2% y-o-y in May 2016. On a 3mma basis, imports fell 14.9% y-o-y in June 2016 compared to a 20.5 % decline in…

After 18 months of consistent decline, exports recorded a marginal uptrend in June 2016 while the rate of decline in imports slowed. Exports grew 1.3% y-o-y in June 2016 but the trend remains weak having declined 2% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average (3mma) basis in May 2016 compared to a fall of 4.2% y-o-y in May 2016. Imports fell by 7.3% y-o-y in June 2016 compared to a decline of 13.2% y-o-y in May 2016. On a 3mma basis, imports fell 14.9% y-o-y in June 2016 compared to a 20.5 % decline in…

INDIA: Downside Risk to Rupee as Trade Data Remain Weak

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The government’s capital injection for India’s state banks is miniscule compared with what they may need. The data is not hidden, so it is unclear to us, how the government can miscalculate by such a magnitude. For four state banks, the proposed capital injection is only 0.3% of assets! Our analysis below focuses on the four state banks where we have complete details, while the overall government capital injection package is for INR229 billion for 13 PSU banks.New proposed government capital as…

The government’s capital injection for India’s state banks is miniscule compared with what they may need. The data is not hidden, so it is unclear to us, how the government can miscalculate by such a magnitude. For four state banks, the proposed capital injection is only 0.3% of assets! Our analysis below focuses on the four state banks where we have complete details, while the overall government capital injection package is for INR229 billion for 13 PSU banks.New proposed government capital as…

New Capital for India's Banks: Microscopic

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

HDFC has become the first Indian issuer to a masala bond after it raised Rs30bn (US$450m) by selling a 3-year one-month maturity rupee denominated offshore bond (Rupee denominated bonds issued offshore are popularly called masala bonds, just as offshore Yuan denominated bonds are referred to as dim sum bonds; the word masala in Hindi language means spice). HDFC issued the paper at a semi-annual coupon of 7.875% for a tenure of 37 months. Prior to this only IFC had issued Rs110bn worth of…

HDFC has become the first Indian issuer to a masala bond after it raised Rs30bn (US$450m) by selling a 3-year one-month maturity rupee denominated offshore bond (Rupee denominated bonds issued offshore are popularly called masala bonds, just as offshore Yuan denominated bonds are referred to as dim sum bonds; the word masala in Hindi language means spice). HDFC issued the paper at a semi-annual coupon of 7.875% for a tenure of 37 months. Prior to this only IFC had issued Rs110bn worth of…

Masala Bond Market: HDFC Makes a Start; Ride Unlikely to Be Smooth; INR Outlook to Guide This Market

<ul><li>The commercial office property market in India is showing good signs of revival since last year</li><li>Demand indicators as seen through the leasing activity, rental movement and the fall in vacancy rates points to positive trends for the sector that has lagged its residential counterpart since 2012</li><li>The offers promising yields of 9-10% across the top cities along with chances of capital appreciation</li><li>High Yield has attracted many global PE &amp; pension funds and Blackstone today has emerged as the largest owner of grade-A office space in India with a portfolio of over 30msf (million square feet)</li><li>Impending creation and listing of REITs in India will be another positive trigger for the sector as developers and asset owners unlock capital from tenanted properties  </li></ul>

The commercial office property market in India is showing good signs of revival since last yearDemand indicators as seen through the leasing activity, rental movement and the fall in vacancy rates points to positive trends for the sector that has lagged its residential counterpart since 2012The offers promising yields of 9-10% across the top cities along with chances of capital appreciationHigh Yield has attracted many global PE &amp; pension funds and Blackstone today has emerged as the largest owner of grade-A office space in India with a portfolio of over 30msf (million square feet)Impending creation and listing of REITs in India will be another positive trigger for the sector as developers and asset owners unlock capital from tenanted properties  

Looking for Yield? India Office Property Offers 10%; Sector on an Uptick; REIT Listings Next Trigger

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation came in at 5.8% in June 2016, similar to the rise recorded in May 2016 – the highest rate since August 2014. Inflation continued to be driven mainly by a significant rise in food prices, especially vegetables.Food prices increased 7.8% y-o-y in June 2016 compared to a 7.5% y-o-y rise in May 2016. The percentage point contribution of food &amp; beverages inflation to overall inflation increased from 3.4% in May 2016 to 3.5% in June 2016. This was largely due to a…

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation came in at 5.8% in June 2016, similar to the rise recorded in May 2016 – the highest rate since August 2014. Inflation continued to be driven mainly by a significant rise in food prices, especially vegetables.Food prices increased 7.8% y-o-y in June 2016 compared to a 7.5% y-o-y rise in May 2016. The percentage point contribution of food &amp; beverages inflation to overall inflation increased from 3.4% in May 2016 to 3.5% in June 2016. This was largely due to a…

INDIA: CPI Inflation at 22 Month High – Rate Cut Unlikely

India

Crisil Ltd. operates a credit rating agency in India. The Company specializes in the areas of risk identification, classification and assessment, across a broad spectrum of industries.

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Crisil Ltd (CRISIL IN)

INDIA: Downside Risk to Rupee as Trade Data Remain Weak

After 18 months of consistent decline, exports recorded a marginal uptrend in June 2016 while the rate of decline in imports slowed. Exports grew...

Rajan Govil

New Capital for India's Banks: Microscopic

The government’s capital injection for India’s state banks is miniscule compared with what they may need. The data is not hidden, so it is unclear...

Daniel Tabbush

Masala Bond Market: HDFC Makes a Start; Ride Unlikely to Be Smooth; INR Outlook to Guide This Market

HDFC has become the first Indian issuer to a masala bond after it raised Rs30bn (US$450m) by selling a 3-year one-month maturity rupee denominated...

Asia Advisors

Looking for Yield? India Office Property Offers 10%; Sector on an Uptick; REIT Listings Next Trigger

The commercial office property market in India is showing good signs of revival since last year Demand indicators as seen through the leasing...

Asia Advisors

INDIA: CPI Inflation at 22 Month High – Rate Cut Unlikely

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation came in at 5.8% in June 2016, similar to the rise recorded in May 2016 – the highest rate since August 2014....

Rajan Govil

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