TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>First ever ARR miss, and big initial guide down on FY2024 ARR growth: low 30s vs. 37% into the Q. Pretty shocking given Crowdstrike's track record.</li>
<li>Macro Macro Macro - deal close times pushed out for SMBs and Enterprise customers reworking timing of deal starts to match opex budgets.</li>
<li>Stock is overly punished down 20% and trading at 9x forward sales for a platform consolidator with 30% FCF margins.</li>
</ul>


First ever ARR miss, and big initial guide down on FY2024 ARR growth: low 30s vs. 37% into the Q. Pretty shocking given Crowdstrike's track record.
Macro Macro Macro - deal close times pushed out for SMBs and Enterprise customers reworking timing of deal starts to match opex budgets.
Stock is overly punished down 20% and trading at 9x forward sales for a platform consolidator with 30% FCF margins.


FY3Q23: If It’s All Macro, Do You Buy the Dip?

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In the past 24 hours, there have been many news flow about numerous US airports that have been cyber attacked by suspects from Russia. </li>
<li>The increasing media attention on cyberattack threat could result in greater concerns about cybersecurity inducing higher global spending on software and other services that help to protect against cyber attacks. </li>
<li>Global cybersecurity stocks that could benefit from greater media attention on cyberattacks include Palo Alto Networks (PANW US)  Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD US)  CloudFlare (NET US).  </li>
</ul>


In the past 24 hours, there have been many news flow about numerous US airports that have been cyber attacked by suspects from Russia. 
The increasing media attention on cyberattack threat could result in greater concerns about cybersecurity inducing higher global spending on software and other services that help to protect against cyber attacks. 
Global cybersecurity stocks that could benefit from greater media attention on cyberattacks include Palo Alto Networks (PANW US)  Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD US)  CloudFlare (NET US).  


Cyberattacks at Numerous US Airports by Suspects from Russia

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In just a few weeks, we will be in the thick of the third quarter earnings season which will steal the spotlight, at least temporarily, from global macro developments. </li><li>There appears to be mounting evidence from downside earnings surprises from Nike, FedEx, and CarMax that the consumer and economic pullback is now showing up in the financial reporting of companies quarterly profits and margins. </li><li>The global economic slowdown and inflation impacts are eroding margins and causing retailers like Nike to experience significant inventory builds which will require price cuts to clear the inventory (while good news for inflation). </li></ul>

In just a few weeks, we will be in the thick of the third quarter earnings season which will steal the spotlight, at least temporarily, from global macro developments. There appears to be mounting evidence from downside earnings surprises from Nike, FedEx, and CarMax that the consumer and economic pullback is now showing up in the financial reporting of companies quarterly profits and margins. The global economic slowdown and inflation impacts are eroding margins and causing retailers like Nike to experience significant inventory builds which will require price cuts to clear the inventory (while good news for inflation). 

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>CrowdStrike saw its quarterly revenue exceed the $500 million threshold for the first time in the last quarter and delivered an all-around beat.</li><li>For the second consecutive quarter, gross retention increased to a new high, and dollar-based net retention soared to its highest point in seven quarters.</li><li>In the quarter, the public sector also became stronger, fueled by record-breaking success in U.S. federal and international government agencies.</li></ul>

CrowdStrike saw its quarterly revenue exceed the $500 million threshold for the first time in the last quarter and delivered an all-around beat.For the second consecutive quarter, gross retention increased to a new high, and dollar-based net retention soared to its highest point in seven quarters.In the quarter, the public sector also became stronger, fueled by record-breaking success in U.S. federal and international government agencies.

CrowdStrike Holdings: Increasing Cybercrime & Ransomware Upside & Other Drivers

<ul>
<li>Crowdstrike continues to gobble up share, printing another strong beat and raise, with ARR now at $2B, the second fastest software company to hit that mark.</li>
<li>EBIT margins up 800bps YoY, TTM FCF Margins 30%...profitable growth at Scale.</li>
<li>13x forward P/S for a unique software asset with long runways for 40%+ growth and multi-module driven margin expansion with a 15% pullback in the past week despite earnings.</li>
</ul>


Crowdstrike continues to gobble up share, printing another strong beat and raise, with ARR now at $2B, the second fastest software company to hit that mark.
EBIT margins up 800bps YoY, TTM FCF Margins 30%...profitable growth at Scale.
13x forward P/S for a unique software asset with long runways for 40%+ growth and multi-module driven margin expansion with a 15% pullback in the past week despite earnings.


Crowdstrike FY2Q23: FY2Q23: Not Just Endpoint, Identity and SIEM Accelerating Too

United States

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. provides cybersecurity products and services to stop breaches. The Company offers cloud-delivered protection across endpoints, cloud workloads, identity and data, and leading threat intelligence, managed security services, IT operations management, threat hunting, Zero Trust identity protection, and log management. CrowdStrike serves customers worldwide.

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Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US)

FY3Q23: If It’s All Macro, Do You Buy the Dip?

Buy the dip in Crowdstrike. Still a top software asset with 30% FCF margins and share gains still to come, macro headwinds are now in the numbers....

Aaron Gabin

Cyberattacks at Numerous US Airports by Suspects from Russia

In the past 24 hours, there have been many news flow about numerous US airports that have been cyber attacked by suspects from Russia. This could...

Douglas Kim

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 10/3

In just a few weeks, we will be in the thick of the third quarter earnings season which will steal the spotlight, at least temporarily, from global...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

CrowdStrike Holdings: Increasing Cybercrime & Ransomware Upside & Other Drivers

CrowdStrike saw its quarterly revenue exceed the $500 million threshold for the first time in the last quarter and delivered an all-around...

Baptista Research

Crowdstrike FY2Q23: FY2Q23: Not Just Endpoint, Identity and SIEM Accelerating Too

Crowdstrike’s stock has pulled back in the past week or so by 15%, despite another superb quarter. 13x forward forward P/S sounds reasonable given...

Aaron Gabin

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