IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Alliance Aviation Services / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and the US (Chinese ADRs only).</li>
<li>This week, the highest gross spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-dongzheng-automotive-finance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27984:1" rel="noopener">Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sezzle-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30969:1" rel="noopener">Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>. </li>
<li>The lowest gross spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-enterprises-urban-re" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29131:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Enterprises Urban Resources (3718 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virtus-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14776:1" rel="noopener">Virtus Health (VRT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-logistics-property-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22799:1" rel="noopener">China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irongate-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30897:1" rel="noopener">Irongate Group (IAP AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and the US (Chinese ADRs only).
This week, the highest gross spreads are Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK), Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Sezzle Inc (SZL AU), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU). 
The lowest gross spreads are Beijing Enterprises Urban Resources (3718 HK), Virtus Health (VRT AU), Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU), China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK), Irongate Group (IAP AU). 


Merger Arb Mondays (9 May) - Alliance Aviation, Ramsay Health, Yashili, VNET, Sezzle, Link

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>For the month of April, 10 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$22bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in April was ~36%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of April, 10 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$22bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in April was ~36%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.


<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and the US (Chinese ADRs only).</li>
<li>This week, the highest gross spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-dongzheng-automotive-finance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27984:1" rel="noopener">Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sezzle-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30969:1" rel="noopener">Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a>. </li>
<li>The lowest gross spreads are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-enterprises-urban-re" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29131:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Enterprises Urban Resources (3718 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virtus-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14776:1" rel="noopener">Virtus Health (VRT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/51-job-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:532:1" rel="noopener">51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-logistics-property-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22799:1" rel="noopener">China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)</a>, Uniti Group.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and the US (Chinese ADRs only).
This week, the highest gross spreads are Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK), Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Sezzle Inc (SZL AU), Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU). 
The lowest gross spreads are Beijing Enterprises Urban Resources (3718 HK), Virtus Health (VRT AU), 51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US), China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK), Uniti Group.


Merger Arb Mondays (2 May) - Dongzheng AFC, Yashili, VNET, Sezzle, Link, Ramsay

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel (KEP SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp (SMM SP)</a> have announced the O&amp;M business combination and it is a little more interesting than expected. It is a Very Big Desirable Order Book.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer Inc (1337 HK)</a>was trading at a 8% gross spread to terms a day before the vote, on headcount test concerns. But it was even close. </li>
<li>KKR and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a> have a deal to get KKR to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-transport-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2395:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)</a> in a VLBO (Very Leveraged BuyOut).</li>
</ul>



Keppel (KEP SP) and Sembcorp (SMM SP) have announced the O&amp;M business combination and it is a little more interesting than expected. It is a Very Big Desirable Order Book.

Razer Inc (1337 HK)was trading at a 8% gross spread to terms a day before the vote, on headcount test concerns. But it was even close. 
KKR and Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) have a deal to get KKR to buy Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) in a VLBO (Very Leveraged BuyOut).


Last Week in Event SPACE: Sembcorp/Keppel, Razer, Hitachi Transport, Renesas, CNOOC

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lake-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14597:1" rel="noopener">Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU)</a> could be added the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> respectively next week following the privatisation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Then we have the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tabcorp-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6837:1" rel="noopener">Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU)</a> spinoff in May that will add to the changes at the regular rebalance in June for the indices.</li>
<li>Short interest has spiked on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lake-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14597:1" rel="noopener">Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)</a> recently following the huge rally in the stocks.</li>
</ul>



Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) and Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU) could be added the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 respectively next week following the privatisation of Crown Resorts (CWN AU). 
Then we have the Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU) spinoff in May that will add to the changes at the regular rebalance in June for the indices.
Short interest has spiked on Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU) and Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) recently following the huge rally in the stocks.


S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in May & June

Australia

Crown Resorts Ltd. operates and manages gaming and entertainment facilities, bars, restaurants, nightclubs, cinemas and retail outlets. The Company also develops hotels and conference centre facilities.

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Crown Resorts (CWN AU)

Merger Arb Mondays (9 May) - Alliance Aviation, Ramsay Health, Yashili, VNET, Sezzle, Link

This week, the highest gross spreads are Dongzheng AFC (52.2%), Yashili (30.4%), VNET (29.0%), Sezzle (18.5%), Alliance Aviation (14.7%), Ramsay...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A: April 2022 Roundup

For the month of April, nine new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$22bn. The average premium for the...

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (2 May) - Dongzheng AFC, Yashili, VNET, Sezzle, Link, Ramsay

This week, the highest gross spreads are Dongzheng AFC (48.7%), Yashili (41.2%), VNET (34.0%), Sezzle (21.9%), Link (8.7%), Ramsay (7.9%),...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Sembcorp/Keppel, Razer, Hitachi Transport, Renesas, CNOOC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in May & June

There could be one change in May followed by a bunch of changes in June. SVW and LKE could be added on 3 May following CWN's privatisation. TAH's...

Brian Freitas

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