Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It is not official yet. But against many odds it looks like Trump has taken it.  There are many implications we need to act on in our portfolios. ... I didn’t think he’d manage it. His indiscretions seemed too large, his gaffes too many. But what we saw, with some 1+m Trump win of the popular vote, was the forgotten rural Americans voting anti-Clinton in greater numbers than expected, particularly in Blue Belt (Rust Belt) areas of the US Center. All while doing what Trump said he would do in…

It is not official yet. But against many odds it looks like Trump has taken it.  There are many implications we need to act on in our portfolios. ... I didn’t think he’d manage it. His indiscretions seemed too large, his gaffes too many. But what we saw, with some 1+m Trump win of the popular vote, was the forgotten rural Americans voting anti-Clinton in greater numbers than expected, particularly in Blue Belt (Rust Belt) areas of the US Center. All while doing what Trump said he would do in…

Against [Official] Odds It's a Trump USA Now

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be President of the United States of America, comfortably winning the electoral vote even as Hillary won the popular vote. I outline my initial thoughts on the drivers behind this, and the political, geopolitical and market impact of this below.

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be President of the United States of America, comfortably winning the electoral vote even as Hillary won the popular vote. I outline my initial thoughts on the drivers behind this, and the political, geopolitical and market impact of this below.

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

We publish an update on our Maritime Model Portfolio. Our earlier model portfolio updates can be found at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/maritime-model-portfolio-adding-risk-with-upgrade-on-dry-bulk-and-downgrade-on-tanker-shipping" target="_blank">https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/maritime-model-portfolio-adding-risk-with-upgrade-on-dry-bulk-and-downgrade-on-tanker-shipping</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-launches-model-stock-portfolio-for-the-maritime-sector" target="_blank">https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-launches-model-stock-portfolio-for-the-maritime-sector</a>The Timeline<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/015/357/original/mmp1.JPG?1477455972" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="15357"></figure>Model portfolio – revisiting our tactical idea, How has it panned out so far?<ul><li>
Our selected stocks from the Dry Bulk sector generated a return of 8.7% (28%…</li></ul>

We publish an update on our Maritime Model Portfolio. Our earlier model portfolio updates can be found at https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/maritime-model-portfolio-adding-risk-with-upgrade-on-dry-bulk-and-downgrade-on-tanker-shipping &amp; https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dmer-launches-model-stock-portfolio-for-the-maritime-sectorThe TimelineModel portfolio – revisiting our tactical idea, How has it panned out so far?
Our selected stocks from the Dry Bulk sector generated a return of 8.7% (28%…

Maritime Model Portfolio - Early Call on Dry Bulk Stocks Offsets Initial Losses

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

After facing troubles in the beginning of year from the weak economy, the Chinese appears to be further stabilizing during the third quarter. By far the prospects of economic expansion seem not to be dimmed but the recent activity of unleashing debt into the market do suggest that the sudden increased economic activity is indeed temporary.The main industries once again have spurred growth, inevitably due to the current fiscal stimulus. The steel industry is still struggling to maintain its…

After facing troubles in the beginning of year from the weak economy, the Chinese appears to be further stabilizing during the third quarter. By far the prospects of economic expansion seem not to be dimmed but the recent activity of unleashing debt into the market do suggest that the sudden increased economic activity is indeed temporary.The main industries once again have spurred growth, inevitably due to the current fiscal stimulus. The steel industry is still struggling to maintain its…

We have earlier argued that the current M&amp;A in the container shipping industry is about "Survival" and not "Growth". This morning from Japan, <blockquote>Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd., Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., and Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha have agreed, after the resolution by the board of directors of each company held today, and subject to regulatory approval from the authorities, to establish a new joint-venture company to integrate the container shipping businesses (including worldwide terminal…</blockquote>

We have earlier argued that the current M&amp;A in the container shipping industry is about "Survival" and not "Growth". This morning from Japan, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd., Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., and Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha have agreed, after the resolution by the board of directors of each company held today, and subject to regulatory approval from the authorities, to establish a new joint-venture company to integrate the container shipping businesses (including worldwide terminal…

Container Shipping - "Survival" M&A In Full Swing, Japanese Big 3 Merge Container Operations

China

CRRC is a Chinese state-owned and publicly traded rolling stock manufacturer, specializing in the research, design, manufacturing, and servicing of railway locomotives, electric multiple units, and urban rail transit vehicles. It is the world's largest supplier of rail transit equipment. The company is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was formally established in 2015.

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CRRC (1766 HK)

Against [Official] Odds It's a Trump USA Now

It is not official yet. But against many odds it looks like Trump has taken it. There are many implications we need to act on in our portfolios....

Charles De Trenck

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be...

Emad Mostaque

Maritime Model Portfolio - Early Call on Dry Bulk Stocks Offsets Initial Losses

We publish an update on our Maritime Model Portfolio. Our earlier model portfolio updates can be found...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Early Look at October Chinese PMI

After facing troubles in the beginning of year from the weak economy, the Chinese appears to be further stabilizing during the third quarter. By...

Christopher Balding

Container Shipping - "Survival" M&A In Full Swing, Japanese Big 3 Merge Container Operations

We have earlier argued that the current M&A in the container shipping industry is about "Survival" and not "Growth". This morning from...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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