Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research, WHB Energy Research LLC

William H Brown III

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research

Independent energy equity and commodity boutique

WHB Energy Research LLC

WHB Energy Research LLC is an independent energy industry equity and commodity boutique
providing analysis and trading/investment recommendations to hedge funds, mutual funds, oil
and gas producing companies, energy consuming companies and high net worth individuals.
WHB Energy Research LLC fills a major void by providing top level fundamental and
qualitative research complemented by state of the art quantitative modeling. WHB Energy
Research LLC also engages in physical oil trading activity as an agent/intermediary and also
provides expert witness consultation and testimony. From 2003-2005 Mr. Brown established and
managed an energy hedge fund for a single investor/client. Specialties: Economic and financial
analysis and forecasting of the NYMEX, ICE, and international physical petroleum markets and
energy equities in the integrated, independent producer, refining, drilling, service, and
transportation sectors.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Yesterday’s bout of NYMEX “profit taking” helps confirm our trading-range scenario, but given this market volatility, it still may be premature to confirm with conviction.                 </li>
<li>The latest EIA weekly data for implied distillate fuel oil demand continue to reveal a possible moderating trend in U.S. manufacturing activity, thus the stats bear monitoring more than ever.                                   </li>
<li>If the economy is now finally beginning to respond more adversely to higher oil prices, hopefully the Fed rate hike will not add any fuel to the fire.          </li>
</ul>


Yesterday’s bout of NYMEX “profit taking” helps confirm our trading-range scenario, but given this market volatility, it still may be premature to confirm with conviction.                 
The latest EIA weekly data for implied distillate fuel oil demand continue to reveal a possible moderating trend in U.S. manufacturing activity, thus the stats bear monitoring more than ever.                                   
If the economy is now finally beginning to respond more adversely to higher oil prices, hopefully the Fed rate hike will not add any fuel to the fire.          


Morning Market Notes: Yesterday's "Profit Taking" Helps Confirm Our Estimated NYMEX CL Trading Range

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Washington is betting on Venezuelan oil: NABEP gives the U.S. unprecedented influence over future production, including equity, governance rights and priority access to output.</li>
<li>The supply impact is distant: NABEP’s current production is far below its target, while infrastructure, capital and field development could push meaningful new volumes into the 2030s.</li>
<li>Hormuz remains a different story: Venezuelan production cannot offset today’s disruption risk, leaving the current geopolitical premium largely intact despite the long-term supply option.</li>
</ul>


Washington is betting on Venezuelan oil: NABEP gives the U.S. unprecedented influence over future production, including equity, governance rights and priority access to output.
The supply impact is distant: NABEP’s current production is far below its target, while infrastructure, capital and field development could push meaningful new volumes into the 2030s.
Hormuz remains a different story: Venezuelan production cannot offset today’s disruption risk, leaving the current geopolitical premium largely intact despite the long-term supply option.


The Venezuela Oil Deal: A Decade-Out Supply Story Dressed as a Headline

<ul>
<li>Oil prices surged yesterday in response to a further escalation of the Houthi-Saudi conflict, which resulted in a closure of the port of Yanbu and damage to the SANREF refinery.                 </li>
<li>There is as of yet no indication of any attempt at diplomacy to resolve the situation, although the Houthis claim that transit through the Bab el-Mandeb is “safe.”                                  </li>
<li>In terms of trading, given the risk of either further oil price gains or this market turning on a dime via a ceasefire/diplomacy, we would continue to concentrate on spreads.          </li>
</ul>


Oil prices surged yesterday in response to a further escalation of the Houthi-Saudi conflict, which resulted in a closure of the port of Yanbu and damage to the SANREF refinery.                 
There is as of yet no indication of any attempt at diplomacy to resolve the situation, although the Houthis claim that transit through the Bab el-Mandeb is “safe.”                                  
In terms of trading, given the risk of either further oil price gains or this market turning on a dime via a ceasefire/diplomacy, we would continue to concentrate on spreads.          


Morning Market Notes: We Believe Too Much Risk Trading the Flat Price; Would Concentrate on Spreads

<ul>
<li>A key element in the equation to watch closely is the interplay between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis and how ultimately the Strait of Hormuz issue is resolved.                </li>
<li>Saudi Arabia postponed a meeting with Iran and other Gulf states due to intensified Houthi attacks on Saudi military and energy assets. Thus far and critically, Abqaiq has been spared.                                 </li>
<li>If Iran can somehow convince the Houthis to “tone it down”, there is the possibility of an agreement to “manage” the Strait of Hormuz without the United States.         </li>
</ul>


A key element in the equation to watch closely is the interplay between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis and how ultimately the Strait of Hormuz issue is resolved.                
Saudi Arabia postponed a meeting with Iran and other Gulf states due to intensified Houthi attacks on Saudi military and energy assets. Thus far and critically, Abqaiq has been spared.                                 
If Iran can somehow convince the Houthis to “tone it down”, there is the possibility of an agreement to “manage” the Strait of Hormuz without the United States.         


Morning Market Notes: A "Far Out" Scenario: A Saudi-Iran Strait of Hormuz Deal Down the Road?

<ul>
<li>Given the ongoing uncertainty regarding the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by the uncertainty of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, it is still hazardous to call a top to this oil market.</li>
<li>We see some analysts now emerging and stating that the market is now poised for a new phase of renewed price strength well above $100.00 per barrel.           </li>
<li>At this point, from a trading standpoint we will reserve final judgement in terms of the flat price, and remain focused on spread relationships.          </li>
</ul>


Given the ongoing uncertainty regarding the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by the uncertainty of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, it is still hazardous to call a top to this oil market.
We see some analysts now emerging and stating that the market is now poised for a new phase of renewed price strength well above $100.00 per barrel.           
At this point, from a trading standpoint we will reserve final judgement in terms of the flat price, and remain focused on spread relationships.          


Monday Macro Update: More Oil Price Gains, Treading Water, or Turning South?

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Morning Market Notes: Yesterday's "Profit Taking" Helps Confirm Our Estimated NYMEX CL Trading Range

Yesterday's crude oil selloff helps confirm our estimated trading range. We need to monitor implied distillate fuel oil demand more closely than...

William H Brown III

The Venezuela Oil Deal: A Decade-Out Supply Story Dressed as a Headline

NABEP gives the U.S. greater control over Venezuela’s future oil supply, but years of investment and infrastructure work separate the deal from...

Mint Finance

Morning Market Notes: We Believe Too Much Risk Trading the Flat Price; Would Concentrate on Spreads

Still too early to call a market top. We would avoid trading the flat price ad concentrate on the spreads, particularly far outer-month NYMEX Cl...

William H Brown III

Morning Market Notes: A "Far Out" Scenario: A Saudi-Iran Strait of Hormuz Deal Down the Road?

Watch to Watch: A possible deal between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the GCC to jointly "manage" the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an end to the...

William H Brown III

Monday Macro Update: More Oil Price Gains, Treading Water, or Turning South?

Going forward, will oil prices rise further, tread water, or turn south? Our best guess is treading water, but within a $5.00-$10.00 range....

William H Brown III

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