Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.</li><li>Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?</li><li>But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest</li></ul>

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest

Positioning Watch:  Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

<ul><li>Printing Oil instead of borrowing USD is what separates EM’s right now- and the Saudi’s still have leverage</li><li>USDCNY &amp; USDJPY could prove to be the bellwethers on the cycle and US Policy</li><li>The Geopolitical mess still rhymes well with higher credit risk premiums</li></ul>

Printing Oil instead of borrowing USD is what separates EM’s right now- and the Saudi’s still have leverageUSDCNY &amp; USDJPY could prove to be the bellwethers on the cycle and US PolicyThe Geopolitical mess still rhymes well with higher credit risk premiums

EM by EM #25 Lighting the fuse in the Middle East?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>The weekly EIA data is out at 11.00 am ET after last week’s data sparked a massive sell-off in oil markets.</li><li>The implied Gasoline demand dropped 12-13% also in seasonally adjusted terms after a cocktail of decreased production and increased inventories of retail gasoline.</li><li>The actual road congestion is up &gt;5% since the early parts of October, meaning that demand is likely up (at least) as much before considering the technicalities of the EIA report that could have led to a flawed low number.</li></ul>

The weekly EIA data is out at 11.00 am ET after last week’s data sparked a massive sell-off in oil markets.The implied Gasoline demand dropped 12-13% also in seasonally adjusted terms after a cocktail of decreased production and increased inventories of retail gasoline.The actual road congestion is up &gt;5% since the early parts of October, meaning that demand is likely up (at least) as much before considering the technicalities of the EIA report that could have led to a flawed low number.

OPEC & EIA nugget: A day of reckoning ahead for Oil

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: Recession, Gasoline, Temperatures, Geopolitics, Portfolio</li><li>As we start to see recessionary signs pop up in the US economy we’ll outline our recession playbook.</li><li>As we have talked about before we see manufacturing continuing its rebound into Q4 due to restocking.</li></ul>

This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: Recession, Gasoline, Temperatures, Geopolitics, PortfolioAs we start to see recessionary signs pop up in the US economy we’ll outline our recession playbook.As we have talked about before we see manufacturing continuing its rebound into Q4 due to restocking.

5 Things We Watch: Recession, Gasoline, Temperatures, Geopolitics and Portfolio

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback</li>
<li>Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).</li>
<li>The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback
Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).
The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.


Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Positioning Watch: Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion. Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week!

Steno Research

EM by EM #25 Lighting the fuse in the Middle East?

Printing Oil instead of borrowing USD is what separates EM’s right now- and the Saudi’s still have leverage. USDCNY & USDJPY could prove to be the...

Steno Research

OPEC & EIA nugget: A day of reckoning ahead for Oil

The weekly EIA data is out at 11.00 am ET after last week’s data sparked a massive sell-off in oil markets. The implied Gasoline demand dropped...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch: Recession, Gasoline, Temperatures, Geopolitics and Portfolio

This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: Recession, Gasoline, Temperatures, Geopolitics, Portfolio.

Steno Research

Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Our confidence in our outlook is growing: as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, most signs point to this being a normal...

Vermilion Research

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