Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>"El Nino has peaked and is declining, indicating a return to neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024 (March-June)," the Australian Bureau of Meteorology wrote last week.</li><li>Even more the institute forecasts that El Nino may completely dissipate by June.</li><li>For our clients, that won’t come as a surprise as we highlighted this scenario over a couple of weeks.</li></ul>

"El Nino has peaked and is declining, indicating a return to neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024 (March-June)," the Australian Bureau of Meteorology wrote last week.Even more the institute forecasts that El Nino may completely dissipate by June.For our clients, that won’t come as a surprise as we highlighted this scenario over a couple of weeks.

Goodbye El Nino - Hello again La Nina // The case for Bitcoin

<ul><li>In a soft-landing economic environment, history suggests that commodity indexes stay stable around the first rate cut then trend higher six months after.</li><li>Historically, industrial metals tend to lag energy by several months.</li><li>By contrast, prices of precious metals, especially gold, generally rise six months after the first rate cut then hit a temporary plateau —something we saw even during the extremes of the 2008 financial crisis and the recent pandemic. </li></ul>

In a soft-landing economic environment, history suggests that commodity indexes stay stable around the first rate cut then trend higher six months after.Historically, industrial metals tend to lag energy by several months.By contrast, prices of precious metals, especially gold, generally rise six months after the first rate cut then hit a temporary plateau —something we saw even during the extremes of the 2008 financial crisis and the recent pandemic. 

How Commodities Perform Around First Rate Cut

Soybean Oil Active Contract / Commodities

<ul><li>We all know about China’s importance in global trade as it is the single most important importer of many key commodities and raw materials.</li><li>This great chart by S&amp;P Global highlights this once again.</li><li>Meanwhile, this importance could at least top out over the next couple of years - as the demographic problem really hits the country.</li></ul>

We all know about China’s importance in global trade as it is the single most important importer of many key commodities and raw materials.This great chart by S&amp;P Global highlights this once again.Meanwhile, this importance could at least top out over the next couple of years - as the demographic problem really hits the country.

China’s Role as Commodity Importer & The Problem that Emerges for the Soybean Complex

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Pakistan’s CPI Inflation jumped to 31.4% YoY in Sep-2023, breaking a three-months of YoY declining trend. The significant hike in inflation is due to higher local fuel and food prices.</li><li>On MoM basis, CPI inflation was up 2.0% in Sep 2023 as compared to 1.7% in Aug 2023 and last 3-month average of 1.6%.</li><li>This takes 1QFY24 average inflation to 29.04% compared to 25.11% in 1QFY23.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Pakistan’s CPI Inflation jumped to 31.4% YoY in Sep-2023, breaking a three-months of YoY declining trend. The significant hike in inflation is due to higher local fuel and food prices.On MoM basis, CPI inflation was up 2.0% in Sep 2023 as compared to 1.7% in Aug 2023 and last 3-month average of 1.6%.This takes 1QFY24 average inflation to 29.04% compared to 25.11% in 1QFY23.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Economy - Inflation up 31% YoY in Sep-2023 as Expected

<ul><li>Orange juice futures hit an all-time high last week as citrus crops all across the US have been hammered by a series of hurricanes and the spread of citrus greening, an incurable disease spread by insects.</li><li>The vast majority of oranges produced in the US come from Florida, which has been hobbled by hurricanes and a cold snap, massively hampering supply.</li><li>Such headwinds are responsible for the supply shortage in oranges, which has driven up prices that will eventually filter through to consumers.</li></ul>

Orange juice futures hit an all-time high last week as citrus crops all across the US have been hammered by a series of hurricanes and the spread of citrus greening, an incurable disease spread by insects.The vast majority of oranges produced in the US come from Florida, which has been hobbled by hurricanes and a cold snap, massively hampering supply.Such headwinds are responsible for the supply shortage in oranges, which has driven up prices that will eventually filter through to consumers.

Traders Remain Neutral Commodities // Copper Loses as China Falls Apart

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Goodbye El Nino - Hello again La Nina // The case for Bitcoin

"El Nino has peaked and is declining, indicating a return to neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024 (March-June)," the Australian Bureau of...

The Commodity Report

How Commodities Perform Around First Rate Cut

In a soft-landing economic environment, history suggests that commodity indexes stay stable around the first rate cut then trend higher six months...

The Commodity Report

China’s Role as Commodity Importer & The Problem that Emerges for the Soybean Complex

We all know about China’s importance in global trade as it is the single most important importer of many key commodities and raw materials.

The Commodity Report

Pakistan Economy - Inflation up 31% YoY in Sep-2023 as Expected

Pakistan’s CPI Inflation jumped to 31.4% YoY in Sep-2023, breaking a three-months of YoY declining trend. The significant hike in inflation is due...

Topline Securities

Traders Remain Neutral Commodities // Copper Loses as China Falls Apart

The vast majority of oranges produced in the US come from Florida, which has been hobbled by hurricanes and a cold snap, massively hampering supply.

The Commodity Report

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