Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>The agency estimates that roughly 46% of Ukraine’s wheat production lies in areas where the war is currently threatening the planting process.</li><li>US Soybean Crush Margin remains very high and therefore continues to support soybean meal prices</li><li>USDA is expecting a larger uptick in planted acres for Wheat and Rice but a large drop in planted acres for Cotton.</li></ul>

The agency estimates that roughly 46% of Ukraine’s wheat production lies in areas where the war is currently threatening the planting process.US Soybean Crush Margin remains very high and therefore continues to support soybean meal pricesUSDA is expecting a larger uptick in planted acres for Wheat and Rice but a large drop in planted acres for Cotton.

The Highlights of USDAs 2023 Commodity Outlook // Where Stock Prices Are Headed in 2023

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>WTI's bearish flat/triangle is setting up to break lower and a harbinger of weaker growth in coming months amid a stronger USD.</li>
<li>Bearish oil also gels with our stronger dollar and weaker demand view. It will also bring energy shares back to earth.</li>
<li>New low targets at 69 and 65 then review for a tactical recovery attempt.</li>
</ul>


WTI's bearish flat/triangle is setting up to break lower and a harbinger of weaker growth in coming months amid a stronger USD.
Bearish oil also gels with our stronger dollar and weaker demand view. It will also bring energy shares back to earth.
New low targets at 69 and 65 then review for a tactical recovery attempt.


Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Where is the global commodity super cycle that everyone keeps predicting? </li>
<li>Industrial metals have outperformed energy (as we predicted) and will likely continue to do so</li>
<li>Selective positioning in the commodity space remains of vital value with no super cycle in sight</li>
</ul>


Where is the global commodity super cycle that everyone keeps predicting? 
Industrial metals have outperformed energy (as we predicted) and will likely continue to do so
Selective positioning in the commodity space remains of vital value with no super cycle in sight


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks, we have been steadfast in our belief that this current rally/short squeeze is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>There has yet to be any meaningful deterioration and we cannot rule out the SPX reaching higher, potentially for 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs).</li>
<li>We continue to preach caution and believe upside is limited on the market indexes. Any combination of a continued strong labor market or hotter-than-expected inflation could upset the market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks, we have been steadfast in our belief that this current rally/short squeeze is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on the S&amp;P 500.
There has yet to be any meaningful deterioration and we cannot rule out the SPX reaching higher, potentially for 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs).
We continue to preach caution and believe upside is limited on the market indexes. Any combination of a continued strong labor market or hotter-than-expected inflation could upset the market.


Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

<ul><li>Glencore said last week that its copper production fell 12% in 2022.</li><li>The miner and trader said it produced 1.06 million tonnes of copper last year and kept its 2023 outlook unchanged at around 1.04 million tonnes.</li><li>Many miners revise their copper output lower, as extreme weather, labor issues, or lower grades have caused companies to deal with problems and limit the output accordingly.</li></ul>

Glencore said last week that its copper production fell 12% in 2022.The miner and trader said it produced 1.06 million tonnes of copper last year and kept its 2023 outlook unchanged at around 1.04 million tonnes.Many miners revise their copper output lower, as extreme weather, labor issues, or lower grades have caused companies to deal with problems and limit the output accordingly.

Major Commodity Fund Outflows Continue in January

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

The Highlights of USDAs 2023 Commodity Outlook // Where Stock Prices Are Headed in 2023

The agency estimates that roughly 46% of Ukraine’s wheat production lies in areas where the war is currently threatening the planting process.

The Commodity Report

WTI Bear Triangle a Growth Negative

WTI's bearish flat/triangle is setting up to break lower and a harbinger of weaker growth in coming months amid a stronger USD.

Thomas Schroeder

Commodity Watch - What Super Cycle?

The awaited Chinese lifebuoy for the global economy, which the reopening consensually was thought to be, has yet to truly show up in prices of...

Steno Research

Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

We have expected this squeeze to fizzle in the 4100-4165 $SPX area, but with no meaningful deterioration, we could see the $SPX reach for 4300-4325...

Vermilion Research

Major Commodity Fund Outflows Continue in January

Glencore said last week that its copper production fell 12% in 2022.The miner and trader said it produced 1.06 million tonnes of copper last year...

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)