Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks, we have been steadfast in our belief that this current rally/short squeeze is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>There has yet to be any meaningful deterioration and we cannot rule out the SPX reaching higher, potentially for 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs).</li>
<li>We continue to preach caution and believe upside is limited on the market indexes. Any combination of a continued strong labor market or hotter-than-expected inflation could upset the market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks, we have been steadfast in our belief that this current rally/short squeeze is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on the S&amp;P 500.
There has yet to be any meaningful deterioration and we cannot rule out the SPX reaching higher, potentially for 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs).
We continue to preach caution and believe upside is limited on the market indexes. Any combination of a continued strong labor market or hotter-than-expected inflation could upset the market.


Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Glencore said last week that its copper production fell 12% in 2022.</li><li>The miner and trader said it produced 1.06 million tonnes of copper last year and kept its 2023 outlook unchanged at around 1.04 million tonnes.</li><li>Many miners revise their copper output lower, as extreme weather, labor issues, or lower grades have caused companies to deal with problems and limit the output accordingly.</li></ul>

Glencore said last week that its copper production fell 12% in 2022.The miner and trader said it produced 1.06 million tonnes of copper last year and kept its 2023 outlook unchanged at around 1.04 million tonnes.Many miners revise their copper output lower, as extreme weather, labor issues, or lower grades have caused companies to deal with problems and limit the output accordingly.

Major Commodity Fund Outflows Continue in January

<ul>
<li>The general market consensus going into the new year was that commodity prices would continue to correct.</li>
<li>We also positioned ourselves in this camp, as we predicted the turnaround story a few months later.</li>
<li>While some commodities such as wheat or natural gas (both commodities that had been priced in a risk bonus for a long time due to the Ukraine war) fell sharply, other commodities such as corn, soybeans, orange juice, or soybean meal remain not far from their highs.</li>
</ul>


The general market consensus going into the new year was that commodity prices would continue to correct.
We also positioned ourselves in this camp, as we predicted the turnaround story a few months later.
While some commodities such as wheat or natural gas (both commodities that had been priced in a risk bonus for a long time due to the Ukraine war) fell sharply, other commodities such as corn, soybeans, orange juice, or soybean meal remain not far from their highs.


<ul><li>Sentiment is very important when it comes to trading any financial asset. In terms of commodities, Goldman Sachs seems to be still a bit too optimistic for me.</li><li>This year has started with a pullback in prices driven by warm weather shock and rising interest rates, Jeff Currie, the head of commodities at the investment bank, said at a presentation in London on Monday.</li><li>But demand in China starting to rebound and there’s insufficient investment in supply, meaning the year as a whole will be a “Goldilocks” moment for rising prices, he said. </li></ul>

Sentiment is very important when it comes to trading any financial asset. In terms of commodities, Goldman Sachs seems to be still a bit too optimistic for me.This year has started with a pullback in prices driven by warm weather shock and rising interest rates, Jeff Currie, the head of commodities at the investment bank, said at a presentation in London on Monday.But demand in China starting to rebound and there’s insufficient investment in supply, meaning the year as a whole will be a “Goldilocks” moment for rising prices, he said. 

<ul><li>Commodity trading houses have shown a stunning performance since 2020.</li><li>So far, there are only a few arguments for why this should change in the near future.</li><li>But also precious metals miners are shining - nevertheless, they have quite some performance to pick up compared to other miners as well as the broad commodity market.</li></ul>

Commodity trading houses have shown a stunning performance since 2020.So far, there are only a few arguments for why this should change in the near future.But also precious metals miners are shining - nevertheless, they have quite some performance to pick up compared to other miners as well as the broad commodity market.

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

We have expected this squeeze to fizzle in the 4100-4165 $SPX area, but with no meaningful deterioration, we could see the $SPX reach for 4300-4325...

Vermilion Research

Major Commodity Fund Outflows Continue in January

Glencore said last week that its copper production fell 12% in 2022.The miner and trader said it produced 1.06 million tonnes of copper last year...

The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report #88

Freeport’s earnings were expected to fall 53% from a year ago to 45 cents a share. Revenue was seen slipping 12% to $5.4 billion.

The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report #87

Sentiment is very important when it comes to trading any financial asset. In terms of commodities, Goldman Sachs seems to be still a bit too...

The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report #86

Commodity trading houses have shown a stunning performance since 2020. So far, there are only a few arguments for why this should change in the...

The Commodity Report

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