Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

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The OPEC+ standoff has entered its second week, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE remaining at odds over the latter’s request for a higher quota if the master production restraint agreement is to be extended to December 2022.Brent futures settled at a 32-month high of $77.16 on July 5 but slumped by a cumulative 5% over the following two days as the market began absorbing the seriousness of the Saudi-UAE spat and the implications of a break-up.We think a compromise will be reached. But the nature and the optics of the compromise will be key, especially for the fate of OPEC+ next year and beyond. The rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE goes beyond OPEC and oil; the Arab Gulf allies have seen political divergence and intensifying economic rivalry in recent years.The UAE’s ambitions in the oil sector may make OPEC+ a bad fit, which means it will need more elbow room in the coming years to stay put or it may end up parting ways.The question for the oil market right now is, will that nuclear option be avoided for the time being? A compromise will immediately provide some upside to crude prices. But what are some of the other potential outcomes and how do we see their impact on prices in the short and longer term? Check out our flow chart!

The OPEC+ standoff has entered its second week, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE remaining at odds over the latter’s request for a higher quota if the master production restraint agreement is to be extended to December 2022.Brent futures settled at a 32-month high of $77.16 on July 5 but slumped by a cumulative 5% over the following two days as the market began absorbing the seriousness of the Saudi-UAE spat and the implications of a break-up.We think a compromise will be reached. But the nature and the optics of the compromise will be key, especially for the fate of OPEC+ next year and beyond. The rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE goes beyond OPEC and oil; the Arab Gulf allies have seen political divergence and intensifying economic rivalry in recent years.The UAE’s ambitions in the oil sector may make OPEC+ a bad fit, which means it will need more elbow room in the coming years to stay put or it may end up parting ways.The question for the oil market right now is, will that nuclear option be avoided for the time being? A compromise will immediately provide some upside to crude prices. But what are some of the other potential outcomes and how do we see their impact on prices in the short and longer term? Check out our flow chart! 

Weekly Oil Views: Lingering OPEC+ Deadlock Brings Bearish Tail Risks in View

“A conservative OPEC+ may sustain crude at current highs”, we wrote in our last weekly insights, and kept you on the right track.The OPEC/non-OPEC alliance is looking to play it safe with a modest 400,000 b/d monthly supply increase between August and December. It may also agree to extend the tenure of the master agreement struck in April 2020 by eight months, to December 2022. Though the above was tentatively agreed between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the de facto OPEC+  leaders, OPEC member UAE threw a spanner in the works with a request for a hike in its quota, putting a deal out of reach last week. The 23 energy ministers are due to resume discussions on July 4, and we expect them to find a way out, likely by striking a compromise on the UAE's demand.If the tapering deal as outlined above goes ahead -- which is our base case scenario -- it signals an OPEC+ pivot to a highly conservative approach to tapering, aimed at keeping the market tight or even under-supplied, and preventing prices from slipping too much from current levels even if Covid forces more demand wobbles in the coming months.

“A conservative OPEC+ may sustain crude at current highs”, we wrote in our last weekly insights, and kept you on the right track.The OPEC/non-OPEC alliance is looking to play it safe with a modest 400,000 b/d monthly supply increase between August and December. It may also agree to extend the tenure of the master agreement struck in April 2020 by eight months, to December 2022. Though the above was tentatively agreed between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the de facto OPEC+  leaders, OPEC member UAE threw a spanner in the works with a request for a hike in its quota, putting a deal out of reach last week. The 23 energy ministers are due to resume discussions on July 4, and we expect them to find a way out, likely by striking a compromise on the UAE's demand.If the tapering deal as outlined above goes ahead -- which is our base case scenario -- it signals an OPEC+ pivot to a highly conservative approach to tapering, aimed at keeping the market tight or even under-supplied, and preventing prices from slipping too much from current levels even if Covid forces more demand wobbles in the coming months.

Weekly Oil Views: OPEC+ Eyes Slow and Modest Easing of Output Cuts

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Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

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Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)</a> breakout above 68 is now reaching our 75 target as readings become extended with big weekly cycle resistance at 77.50 that sets up a top and reverse trade.Our commodity domino outlined out as the next market to crack near the 75 target and raising this turn level to 77.50. The weekly cycle outlined a clear 5 wave rise that warns of a harder pullback if we see rally attempts fail at 77.50.RSI has not confirmed new highs for a case of bear divergence as the MACD flatlines ahead of a curl lower.How much longer can oil weather a stronger USD with a strong demand backdrop now coming under scrutiny if we cannot clear 77.50.

Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) breakout above 68 is now reaching our 75 target as readings become extended with big weekly cycle resistance at 77.50 that sets up a top and reverse trade.Our commodity domino outlined out as the next market to crack near the 75 target and raising this turn level to 77.50. The weekly cycle outlined a clear 5 wave rise that warns of a harder pullback if we see rally attempts fail at 77.50.RSI has not confirmed new highs for a case of bear divergence as the MACD flatlines ahead of a curl lower.How much longer can oil weather a stronger USD with a strong demand backdrop now coming under scrutiny if we cannot clear 77.50.

Brent futures finally broke through the $75 (settlement) barrier last week and did not look back.Crude was under the influence of two “central banks” – the Fed and OPEC+ – and signals from both supported the ongoing bullish narrative.Jay Powell managed to reassure worried investors that the Fed won’t tighten monetary policy too soon. OPEC+ was less forthcoming officially, but effectively telegraphed that it won’t taper too much too soon, putting more wind in the oil bulls’ sails.The US economic rebound is well-entrenched and the main driving factor behind crude’s incessant climb. But a summer demand boom from holiday spending and release of pent-up demand should not be taken as par for the course. Plus, the recovery picture in the rest of the world is still pretty uncertain and mixed.How much more upside does crude have? Not to $80 levels, we still think, and explain why.

Brent futures finally broke through the $75 (settlement) barrier last week and did not look back.Crude was under the influence of two “central banks” – the Fed and OPEC+ – and signals from both supported the ongoing bullish narrative.Jay Powell managed to reassure worried investors that the Fed won’t tighten monetary policy too soon. OPEC+ was less forthcoming officially, but effectively telegraphed that it won’t taper too much too soon, putting more wind in the oil bulls’ sails.The US economic rebound is well-entrenched and the main driving factor behind crude’s incessant climb. But a summer demand boom from holiday spending and release of pent-up demand should not be taken as par for the course. Plus, the recovery picture in the rest of the world is still pretty uncertain and mixed.How much more upside does crude have? Not to $80 levels, we still think, and explain why.

Weekly Oil Views: A Conservative OPEC+ May Sustain Prices at Current Highs

“Crude may be at an inflection point but $80 is a stretch” we said in our weekly analysis a fortnight ago, and we stand by the view.
In our monthly Bulls &amp; Bears last week, we said we were “mildly bullish” for the near-term as well as for the next three months. We reaffirm that outlook as well. (As a reminder, “mildly bullish” is the first stop on our three-notch scale in the green, which goes up to “moderately” and “strongly” bullish.)
Last week’s wobble in crude was sparked off by the US Fed spooking investors by pencilling in a late-2023 interest rate hike, rather than a change in sentiment on oil fundamentals. But the breather allows the market to contemplate some of the downside risks on both the supply as well as the demand side that it had swept aside in the breathless rally of the past three weeks. 
Once the dust has settled on the Fed’s announcement and the OPEC/non-OPEC energy ministers have charted their course at the next meeting on July 1, crude could resume trekking up a gentle incline.

“Crude may be at an inflection point but $80 is a stretch” we said in our weekly analysis a fortnight ago, and we stand by the view.
In our monthly Bulls &amp; Bears last week, we said we were “mildly bullish” for the near-term as well as for the next three months. We reaffirm that outlook as well. (As a reminder, “mildly bullish” is the first stop on our three-notch scale in the green, which goes up to “moderately” and “strongly” bullish.)
Last week’s wobble in crude was sparked off by the US Fed spooking investors by pencilling in a late-2023 interest rate hike, rather than a change in sentiment on oil fundamentals. But the breather allows the market to contemplate some of the downside risks on both the supply as well as the demand side that it had swept aside in the breathless rally of the past three weeks. 
Once the dust has settled on the Fed’s announcement and the OPEC/non-OPEC energy ministers have charted their course at the next meeting on July 1, crude could resume trekking up a gentle incline.  

Weekly Oil Views: Fed Rate Hike Signal Halts Crude Rally but Demand Optimism Intact

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Weekly Oil Views: Lingering OPEC+ Deadlock Brings Bearish Tail Risks in View

A festering Saudi-UAE spat holding up an OPEC+ supply deal has brought the risks of a permanent fissure in the alliance to the fore, arresting...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: OPEC+ Eyes Slow and Modest Easing of Output Cuts

OPEC+ is pivoting to a highly conservative approach to tapering its cuts, which means it wants to avoid prices from falling much from current peaks...

Vandana Hari

WTI 77.50 Rejection Barrier

Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) breakout above 68 is now reaching our 75 target as readings become extended with big weekly cycle resistance at 77.50...

Thomas Schroeder

Weekly Oil Views: A Conservative OPEC+ May Sustain Prices at Current Highs

Crude is on a boil. It may find support form OPEC+'s pivot to an extra-cautious easing of cuts under a hawkish Saudi leadership. But we don't see...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Fed Rate Hike Signal Halts Crude Rally but Demand Optimism Intact

Last week's Fed-induced wobble in crude is likely temporary. Looking beyond it, we see crude settling into a gentle upward incline over summer and...

Vandana Hari

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