Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

Let’s set aside the unpredictability of the pandemic’s trajectory for a minute. Even the current global map of Covid is getting harder to read!On the one hand, you have the US, which is marching towards a full reopening, even with a daily case count of more than 30,000. On the other, there are countries in Asia intent on pursuing “Covid zero” – a complete elimination of the virus. The progression of the pandemic and the progress of immunisations also look like a patchwork across the globe. In the meantime, the constantly evolving mutants, carrying threats of higher transmissibility or resistance to immunity, have become a new source of concern, just as the spread of vaccines was starting to offer hope.All these moving parts make assessing global oil demand recovery harder than usual. The popular narrative is an expected strong rebound in the second-half of the year, marked by a nearly 5 million b/d jump in global consumption on average compared with the first half. But the downside risk to that H2 optimism is stacked high. The second half of 2021 may indeed look better with a gradual spread of vaccinations and continued reopening of economies, but we are not convinced on the quantum of improvement.

Let’s set aside the unpredictability of the pandemic’s trajectory for a minute. Even the current global map of Covid is getting harder to read!On the one hand, you have the US, which is marching towards a full reopening, even with a daily case count of more than 30,000. On the other, there are countries in Asia intent on pursuing “Covid zero” – a complete elimination of the virus. The progression of the pandemic and the progress of immunisations also look like a patchwork across the globe. In the meantime, the constantly evolving mutants, carrying threats of higher transmissibility or resistance to immunity, have become a new source of concern, just as the spread of vaccines was starting to offer hope.All these moving parts make assessing global oil demand recovery harder than usual. The popular narrative is an expected strong rebound in the second-half of the year, marked by a nearly 5 million b/d jump in global consumption on average compared with the first half. But the downside risk to that H2 optimism is stacked high. The second half of 2021 may indeed look better with a gradual spread of vaccinations and continued reopening of economies, but we are not convinced on the quantum of improvement.

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Hemmed in by Demand Uncertainty, Spectre of Inflation

Amid a sense of heightening frustration and desperation over a festering virus around the globe more than a year into the pandemic, the US racing towards normalcy and European countries making plans to end restrictions for summer holiday travel is uplifting news.It prompts hope that the rest of the world, which may not be as fortunate right now, will follow suit.Crude has been rallying again with an eye on a summer demand boom.While on a personal level we prefer to think positive and stay optimistic, with an analyst’s hat on, we see the risk of a resurgence of the virus on either side of the Atlantic as borders are reopened and people allowed to mingle in the coming months.The unprecedented spike in infections triggered by new mutants of the SARS-CoV-2 not only in India, but also parts of Southeast Asia, Japan and Canada, could be a story that gets replayed in the US and Europe. Neither the US nor the EU countries will be anywhere close to “herd immunity” by summer.Not only that, but the US is abandoning the goal of herd immunity. We give you our take on the significance of this crucial development and the alternate to the dream of a “Covid-free” vaccinated world that we – and the oil market – needs to be prepared for.

Amid a sense of heightening frustration and desperation over a festering virus around the globe more than a year into the pandemic, the US racing towards normalcy and European countries making plans to end restrictions for summer holiday travel is uplifting news.It prompts hope that the rest of the world, which may not be as fortunate right now, will follow suit.Crude has been rallying again with an eye on a summer demand boom.While on a personal level we prefer to think positive and stay optimistic, with an analyst’s hat on, we see the risk of a resurgence of the virus on either side of the Atlantic as borders are reopened and people allowed to mingle in the coming months.The unprecedented spike in infections triggered by new mutants of the SARS-CoV-2 not only in India, but also parts of Southeast Asia, Japan and Canada, could be a story that gets replayed in the US and Europe. Neither the US nor the EU countries will be anywhere close to “herd immunity” by summer.Not only that, but the US is abandoning the goal of herd immunity. We give you our take on the significance of this crucial development and the alternate to the dream of a “Covid-free” vaccinated world that we – and the oil market – needs to be prepared for.

Weekly Oil Views: Promise of Summer Demand Boom Obscures Attendant Risk

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to global Energy stocks at current levels. Stocks Highlighted: 500312-IN (ONGC-IN), 135-HK, FP-FR, EQNR-NO, TEN-IT, EOG-US, HES-US, OVV-US, XEC-US, FANG-US, MPC-US, CHX-US, DVN-US, VET-US, and CLR-US

Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to global Energy stocks at current levels. Stocks Highlighted: 500312-IN (ONGC-IN), 135-HK, FP-FR, EQNR-NO, TEN-IT, EOG-US, HES-US, OVV-US, XEC-US, FANG-US, MPC-US, CHX-US, DVN-US, VET-US, and CLR-US

Global Energy Stocks Are Breaking Out -- Buy

US employment data, retail sales, consumer confidence, mobility metrics and oil consumption figures are all bolstering the narrative of the world's largest economy roaring back to life.The Europe Union is turning from being a drag to supportive for oil sentiment as the pandemic showing signs of abating in the worst-hit economies and vaccination drives are picking up pace. The Chinese economy remains on a steady growth path. In stark contrast, the other Asian economic giant India is battling a Covid catastrophe. But the oil complex is discounting the worst-case scenario on oil demand slump in the world's third-largest consuming country. How do the positives and negatives for global oil demand recovery stack up and what does it mean for oil prices in the short term? After weighing the key factors, we have a Neutral view for the very near-term and a Moderately Bullish view for the next three months on crude prices.

US employment data, retail sales, consumer confidence, mobility metrics and oil consumption figures are all bolstering the narrative of the world's largest economy roaring back to life.The Europe Union is turning from being a drag to supportive for oil sentiment as the pandemic showing signs of abating in the worst-hit economies and vaccination drives are picking up pace. The Chinese economy remains on a steady growth path. In stark contrast, the other Asian economic giant India is battling a Covid catastrophe. But the oil complex is discounting the worst-case scenario on oil demand slump in the world's third-largest consuming country. How do the positives and negatives for global oil demand recovery stack up and what does it mean for oil prices in the short term? After weighing the key factors, we have a Neutral view for the very near-term and a Moderately Bullish view for the next three months on crude prices.

BULLS & BEARS: Short- And Medium-Term View on Oil Prices

Crude cooled off from one-month highs last week with a 2-3% pullback in Brent and WTI futures but appeared to have bottomed out, with a modest bounce up by Friday.  
India’s Covid spike is brutal but the country is avoiding another national lockdown, opting instead for a combination of localised curfews and tightened restrictions over weekends. Oil demand is expected to ease after hitting levels not seen since November 2019 in March, but not crumble.
Meanwhile, the US economy continues to stride towards normalcy and leisure travel is picking up, albeit within national borders. Across the pond, the UK may finally be out of the woods and continental Europe is picking up the pieces on its vaccination drive and gearing up to open its borders to summer holiday travellers.
We expect crude to begin inching up again, with a possibly stronger upward momentum returning in May.

Crude cooled off from one-month highs last week with a 2-3% pullback in Brent and WTI futures but appeared to have bottomed out, with a modest bounce up by Friday.  
India’s Covid spike is brutal but the country is avoiding another national lockdown, opting instead for a combination of localised curfews and tightened restrictions over weekends. Oil demand is expected to ease after hitting levels not seen since November 2019 in March, but not crumble.
Meanwhile, the US economy continues to stride towards normalcy and leisure travel is picking up, albeit within national borders. Across the pond, the UK may finally be out of the woods and continental Europe is picking up the pieces on its vaccination drive and gearing up to open its borders to summer holiday travellers.
We expect crude to begin inching up again, with a possibly stronger upward momentum returning in May.

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Dips on India Covid Woes but Summer Optimism Sustains

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Hemmed in by Demand Uncertainty, Spectre of Inflation

After Apr's doldrums, May has returned buoyancy to oil. But Brent has failed to breach $70. The virus and its variants are continuing to spread. An...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Promise of Summer Demand Boom Obscures Attendant Risk

The US is racing towards full "normalisation" while European countries are readying for a bustling summer holiday season. None have reached "herd...

Vandana Hari

Global Energy Stocks Are Breaking Out -- Buy

In today's report we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to global Energy stocks at current levels.

Vermilion Research

BULLS & BEARS: Short- And Medium-Term View on Oil Prices

US economic cheer and signs of the EU turning a corner on Covid are more than countering headwinds from India's brutal second wave, causing an...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Dips on India Covid Woes but Summer Optimism Sustains

Crude priced in demand fears over India's Covid crisis with a dip last week, but is poised to resume an upward trek. US economy is steaming ahead,...

Vandana Hari

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