Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>WTI fell 7.7% as Hormuz de-escalation hopes faded, while easing IV and weaker speculative positioning pointed to a more cautious oil market.</li>
<li>Energy ETFs broadly tracked crude lower, with XOP and IXC among the biggest laggards, while utilities proved more resilient amid the broader risk-off move.</li>
<li>Occidental delivered its strongest free-cash-flow quarter since 2022, beating earnings expectations and raising its dividend as debt continued to fall.</li>
</ul>


WTI fell 7.7% as Hormuz de-escalation hopes faded, while easing IV and weaker speculative positioning pointed to a more cautious oil market.
Energy ETFs broadly tracked crude lower, with XOP and IXC among the biggest laggards, while utilities proved more resilient amid the broader risk-off move.
Occidental delivered its strongest free-cash-flow quarter since 2022, beating earnings expectations and raising its dividend as debt continued to fall.


Energy Weekly (W/E 07/Aug): Oil Reprices Hormuz Risk, Positioning Turns Cautious, and Oxy Beats

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research, WHB Energy Research LLC

William H Brown III

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research

Independent energy equity and commodity boutique

WHB Energy Research LLC

WHB Energy Research LLC is an independent energy industry equity and commodity boutique
providing analysis and trading/investment recommendations to hedge funds, mutual funds, oil
and gas producing companies, energy consuming companies and high net worth individuals.
WHB Energy Research LLC fills a major void by providing top level fundamental and
qualitative research complemented by state of the art quantitative modeling. WHB Energy
Research LLC also engages in physical oil trading activity as an agent/intermediary and also
provides expert witness consultation and testimony. From 2003-2005 Mr. Brown established and
managed an energy hedge fund for a single investor/client. Specialties: Economic and financial
analysis and forecasting of the NYMEX, ICE, and international physical petroleum markets and
energy equities in the integrated, independent producer, refining, drilling, service, and
transportation sectors.

<ul>
<li>In last Friday’s report we suggested that we were back to “square one,” i.e. the MOU, in terms of Iran’s demands before the Strait of Hormuz is “opened.”</li>
<li>President Trump stated that he is willing to let economic pressure on Iran be the deciding factor, and therefore we would assume no resumption of military strikes against Iran.  </li>
<li>Based on what we believe Tehran can tolerate, therefore, the odds appear high that the stalemate could continue through at least the end of 2026.         </li>
</ul>


In last Friday’s report we suggested that we were back to “square one,” i.e. the MOU, in terms of Iran’s demands before the Strait of Hormuz is “opened.”
President Trump stated that he is willing to let economic pressure on Iran be the deciding factor, and therefore we would assume no resumption of military strikes against Iran.  
Based on what we believe Tehran can tolerate, therefore, the odds appear high that the stalemate could continue through at least the end of 2026.         


Monday Macro Update: We Have Retuned To "Square One" In Terms of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

Independent Price Reporting Agency, QC Intel

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Independent Price Reporting Agency

QC Intel

We are an independent price reporting agency (PRA) providing price assessments, original news and trade data for the global energy transition markets.

Our mission is to bring greater transparency to these rapidly developing markets, powering transactions and helping the world to decarbonize as efficiently as possible.

<ul><li>Crude futures eased back from earlier highs Friday as various backchannel talks continued on opening the Strait of Hormuz, although plans floated earlier this week look to have stalled due to Iran's demands.</li><li>Oct26 ICE Brent futures were 0.2% lower at  $82.34/b (2030 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was at $77.04/b , down 0.3% versus Thursday's settle.</li><li>Brent initially punched above $84/b after Iran said it will seek to exclude US and Israeli ships under its plans to control the Strait of Hormuz, while countries it deems as allies of the US would be required to pay reparations before being allowed access to the strategic waterway.</li></ul>

Crude futures eased back from earlier highs Friday as various backchannel talks continued on opening the Strait of Hormuz, although plans floated earlier this week look to have stalled due to Iran's demands.Oct26 ICE Brent futures were 0.2% lower at  $82.34/b (2030 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was at $77.04/b , down 0.3% versus Thursday's settle.Brent initially punched above $84/b after Iran said it will seek to exclude US and Israeli ships under its plans to control the Strait of Hormuz, while countries it deems as allies of the US would be required to pay reparations before being allowed access to the strategic waterway.

Oil futures: Crude higher amid Strait of Hormuz deal uncertainty

<ul>
<li>Thus far the "conventional MAD" (Mutually Assured Destruction) scenario is off the table, with President Trump using alleged behind the scenes dialogs as a reason to back off.</li>
<li>We suspect the war is far from over, however, since it appears many if not most of the negotiation "sticking points" remain, or even more intransient.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, we retain our view, right or wrong, that the peak in the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract was reached Sunday evening, March 1.</li>
</ul>


Thus far the "conventional MAD" (Mutually Assured Destruction) scenario is off the table, with President Trump using alleged behind the scenes dialogs as a reason to back off.
We suspect the war is far from over, however, since it appears many if not most of the negotiation "sticking points" remain, or even more intransient.
Nonetheless, we retain our view, right or wrong, that the peak in the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract was reached Sunday evening, March 1.


It Appears President Trump Pulled off A "Semi-TACO", Contrary to Our Expectations, and We Apologize

<ul>
<li>While we have been correct in terms of a potential Iran-Oman agreement to jointly “manage” the Strait, it appears the role of the U.S. is not what we had envisioned.....yet.       </li>
<li>Part of the Iran-Oman deal includes the U.S. lifting the blockade of Iranian ports plus releasing at least some frozen Iranian assets.                   </li>
<li>This conditional aspect complicates matters for the U.S., and fully supports our view that a renewal of military activity carries a relatively high probability.            </li>
</ul>


While we have been correct in terms of a potential Iran-Oman agreement to jointly “manage” the Strait, it appears the role of the U.S. is not what we had envisioned.....yet.       
Part of the Iran-Oman deal includes the U.S. lifting the blockade of Iranian ports plus releasing at least some frozen Iranian assets.                   
This conditional aspect complicates matters for the U.S., and fully supports our view that a renewal of military activity carries a relatively high probability.            


Morning Market Notes: A Possible Brief Spike in Oil Prices, Followed by a Progressive Decline.

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Energy Weekly (W/E 07/Aug): Oil Reprices Hormuz Risk, Positioning Turns Cautious, and Oxy Beats

Oil prices dropped due to fading hopes of de-escalation in the Hormuz region, leading to a more cautious market. Energy ETFs followed suit, while...

Mint Finance

Monday Macro Update: We Have Retuned To "Square One" In Terms of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

Iran's demands for the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved as economic pressure is seen as the deciding factor, with a stalemate likely to continue...

William H Brown III

Oil futures: Crude higher amid Strait of Hormuz deal uncertainty

Crude futures eased back from earlier highs as various backchannel talks continued on opening the Strait of Hormuz, although plans floated earlier...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

It Appears President Trump Pulled off A "Semi-TACO", Contrary to Our Expectations, and We Apologize

President Trump's alleged behind the scenes dialogs have taken the "conventional MAD" scenario off the table, but the negotiation "sticking...

William H Brown III

Morning Market Notes: A Possible Brief Spike in Oil Prices, Followed by a Progressive Decline.

Iran-Oman deal to manage the Strait includes US lifting blockade and releasing frozen assets, increasing likelihood of military activity.

William H Brown III

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Energy Weekly (W/E 07/Aug): Oil Reprices Hormuz Risk, Positioning Turns Cautious, and Oxy Beats

​Oil prices dropped due to fading hopes of de-escalation in the Hormuz region, leading to a more cautious market. Energy ETFs followed suit, while...

Mint Finance

Monday Macro Update: We Have Retuned To "Square One" In Terms of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

​Iran's demands for the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved as economic pressure is seen as the deciding factor, with a stalemate likely to continue...

William H Brown III

Oil futures: Crude higher amid Strait of Hormuz deal uncertainty

Crude futures eased back from earlier highs as various backchannel talks continued on opening the Strait of Hormuz, although plans floated earlier...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

It Appears President Trump Pulled off A "Semi-TACO", Contrary to Our Expectations, and We Apologize

​President Trump's alleged behind the scenes dialogs have taken the "conventional MAD" scenario off the table, but the negotiation "sticking...

William H Brown III

Morning Market Notes: A Possible Brief Spike in Oil Prices, Followed by a Progressive Decline.

​Iran-Oman deal to manage the Strait includes US lifting blockade and releasing frozen assets, increasing likelihood of military activity.

William H Brown III

Oil prices dropped due to fading hopes of de-escalation in the Hormuz region, leading to a more cautious market. Energy ETFs followed suit, while...

Iran's demands for the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved as economic pressure is seen as the deciding factor, with a stalemate likely to continue...

President Trump's alleged behind the scenes dialogs have taken the "conventional MAD" scenario off the table, but the negotiation "sticking...

Iran-Oman deal to manage the Strait includes US lifting blockade and releasing frozen assets, increasing likelihood of military activity.