Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research, WHB Energy Research LLC

William H Brown III

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research

Independent energy equity and commodity boutique

WHB Energy Research LLC

WHB Energy Research LLC is an independent energy industry equity and commodity boutique
providing analysis and trading/investment recommendations to hedge funds, mutual funds, oil
and gas producing companies, energy consuming companies and high net worth individuals.
WHB Energy Research LLC fills a major void by providing top level fundamental and
qualitative research complemented by state of the art quantitative modeling. WHB Energy
Research LLC also engages in physical oil trading activity as an agent/intermediary and also
provides expert witness consultation and testimony. From 2003-2005 Mr. Brown established and
managed an energy hedge fund for a single investor/client. Specialties: Economic and financial
analysis and forecasting of the NYMEX, ICE, and international physical petroleum markets and
energy equities in the integrated, independent producer, refining, drilling, service, and
transportation sectors.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Funds have continued to buy crude oil from December of last year to date based primarily, if not exclusively, in anticipation of a U.S. confrontation with Iran.</li>
<li>If either a nuclear deal is reached or supplies are not disrupted under a military scenario funds will liquidate net length en masse. </li>
<li>The resultant decline in crude oil prices should provide the buying opportunity we have anticipated for a first-to-second quarter fundamentally based oil price rally.</li>
</ul>


Funds have continued to buy crude oil from December of last year to date based primarily, if not exclusively, in anticipation of a U.S. confrontation with Iran.
If either a nuclear deal is reached or supplies are not disrupted under a military scenario funds will liquidate net length en masse. 
The resultant decline in crude oil prices should provide the buying opportunity we have anticipated for a first-to-second quarter fundamentally based oil price rally.


Fund Crude Oil Buying Over the Last Several Weeks Reflects Iran Hype, and Not Fundamentals

<ul>
<li>The oil market once again is taking President Trump at his word that a deal between the U.S. and Iran is close, if not virtually consummated.       </li>
<li>We would note, however, that our energy equities appear to be taking a somewhat different view, i.e. in general they declined less than the commodity yesterday.                 </li>
<li>In any event, as discussed on Monday, we will believe a comprehensive deal when we see it, and as such we do not rule out a return to open conflict.            </li>
</ul>


The oil market once again is taking President Trump at his word that a deal between the U.S. and Iran is close, if not virtually consummated.       
We would note, however, that our energy equities appear to be taking a somewhat different view, i.e. in general they declined less than the commodity yesterday.                 
In any event, as discussed on Monday, we will believe a comprehensive deal when we see it, and as such we do not rule out a return to open conflict.            


Morning Market Notes: Oil Prices Say a Deal Is Near; Our Energy Equities Suggest Otherwise

Independent Price Reporting Agency, QC Intel

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Independent Price Reporting Agency

QC Intel

We are an independent price reporting agency (PRA) providing price assessments, original news and trade data for the global energy transition markets.

Our mission is to bring greater transparency to these rapidly developing markets, powering transactions and helping the world to decarbonize as efficiently as possible.

<ul><li>Crude oil futures opened the week sharply lower after President Donald Trump halted a planned major US/Israeli attack on Iran, which had threatened significant conflict escalation.</li><li>Oct26 ICE  Brent futures were 4.9% lower at  $83.62/b (2138 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was at $80.06/b , down 5.4% versus Friday's settle.</li><li>Benchmarks rowed back after the president said over the weekend that he had called off planned strikes on Iran, indicating a possible diplomatic breakthrough in the five-month-long conflict.</li></ul>

Crude oil futures opened the week sharply lower after President Donald Trump halted a planned major US/Israeli attack on Iran, which had threatened significant conflict escalation.Oct26 ICE  Brent futures were 4.9% lower at  $83.62/b (2138 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was at $80.06/b , down 5.4% versus Friday's settle.Benchmarks rowed back after the president said over the weekend that he had called off planned strikes on Iran, indicating a possible diplomatic breakthrough in the five-month-long conflict.

Oil futures: Crude slumps as US-Iran pause hostilities for peace talks

<ul>
<li>Despite current geopolitical "distractions", consensus continues to predict a "mega" oil surplus for this year. We believe the global oil market will be in a better balance than consensus expectations.</li>
<li>Much of the volumes of "oil afloat" and "oil in transit" that may end up in on-land storage is in "strong hands" and unlikely to be dumped on the market.</li>
<li>We are bullish on energy equities and the commodity for 2026. In terms of the equities, however, we believe that over the short-term they are a bit ahead of themselves.</li>
</ul>


Despite current geopolitical "distractions", consensus continues to predict a "mega" oil surplus for this year. We believe the global oil market will be in a better balance than consensus expectations.
Much of the volumes of "oil afloat" and "oil in transit" that may end up in on-land storage is in "strong hands" and unlikely to be dumped on the market.
We are bullish on energy equities and the commodity for 2026. In terms of the equities, however, we believe that over the short-term they are a bit ahead of themselves.


2026 World Oil Market Will Be Better Balanced Than Consensus Expectations

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Crude Oil Futures dropped 6% on Monday, our model flagged asymmetric upside risk. We will use the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-states-oil-fund-lp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:174:1" rel="noopener">United States Oil Fund LP (USO US)</a> ETF for this analysis.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-states-oil-fund-lp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:174:1" rel="noopener">USO</a> is reaching the lower WEEKLY support levels on our model. This means that oil may briefly jump higher, once this weekly correction settles, this week.</li>
<li>
<strong>We expect the correction to end probably this week</strong>, barring major unpredictable events driven by decisions made by the US Gov, like 'peace at any cost'.</li>
</ul>


Crude Oil Futures dropped 6% on Monday, our model flagged asymmetric upside risk. We will use the United States Oil Fund LP (USO US) ETF for this analysis.

USO is reaching the lower WEEKLY support levels on our model. This means that oil may briefly jump higher, once this weekly correction settles, this week.

We expect the correction to end probably this week, barring major unpredictable events driven by decisions made by the US Gov, like 'peace at any cost'.


Crude Oil Tactical Outlook: Bottom Near, May Rise Again

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Fund Crude Oil Buying Over the Last Several Weeks Reflects Iran Hype, and Not Fundamentals

Funds are buying crude oil in anticipation of a US-Iran confrontation, but may liquidate if a nuclear deal is reached or supplies remain stable,...

William H Brown III

Morning Market Notes: Oil Prices Say a Deal Is Near; Our Energy Equities Suggest Otherwise

Oil market optimistic about US-Iran deal, but energy equities remain cautious and prepared for potential return to conflict.

William H Brown III

Oil futures: Crude slumps as US-Iran pause hostilities for peace talks

Crude oil futures opened the week sharply lower after President Donald Trump halted a major US/Israeli attack on Iran...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

2026 World Oil Market Will Be Better Balanced Than Consensus Expectations

The consensus anticipates a mega oil surplus for this year, but the balance will be better than expected. We are bullish on energy equities and...

William H Brown III

Crude Oil Tactical Outlook: Bottom Near, May Rise Again

Crude oil futures dropped 6% on Monday, but our model suggests a potential upcoming rebound as oil reaches the lowest support levels. We expect a...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fund Crude Oil Buying Over the Last Several Weeks Reflects Iran Hype, and Not Fundamentals

​Funds are buying crude oil in anticipation of a US-Iran confrontation, but may liquidate if a nuclear deal is reached or supplies remain stable,...

William H Brown III

Morning Market Notes: Oil Prices Say a Deal Is Near; Our Energy Equities Suggest Otherwise

​Oil market optimistic about US-Iran deal, but energy equities remain cautious and prepared for potential return to conflict.

William H Brown III

Oil futures: Crude slumps as US-Iran pause hostilities for peace talks

Crude oil futures opened the week sharply lower after President Donald Trump halted a major US/Israeli attack on Iran...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

2026 World Oil Market Will Be Better Balanced Than Consensus Expectations

​The consensus anticipates a mega oil surplus for this year, but the balance will be better than expected. We are bullish on energy equities and...

William H Brown III

Crude Oil Tactical Outlook: Bottom Near, May Rise Again

​Crude oil futures dropped 6% on Monday, but our model suggests a potential upcoming rebound as oil reaches the lowest support levels. We expect a...

Nico Rosti

Funds are buying crude oil in anticipation of a US-Iran confrontation, but may liquidate if a nuclear deal is reached or supplies remain stable,...

Oil market optimistic about US-Iran deal, but energy equities remain cautious and prepared for potential return to conflict.

The consensus anticipates a mega oil surplus for this year, but the balance will be better than expected. We are bullish on energy equities and...

Crude oil futures dropped 6% on Monday, but our model suggests a potential upcoming rebound as oil reaches the lowest support levels. We expect a...