Decoding the Future of MENA Financial Markets, MENA Market Lab

Denis Collot

Decoding the Future of MENA Financial Markets

MENA Market Lab

Decoding the future of Middle East and North Africa Financial markets

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Kuwait passed legislation for sukuk borrowing and a new mortgage law.                 </li><li>Bahrain’s GDP fell in Q1 by 3.8 %. FX reserves at their lowest.</li><li>Oman, the only GCC country to benefit from Trump’s war.</li></ul>

Kuwait passed legislation for sukuk borrowing and a new mortgage law.                 Bahrain’s GDP fell in Q1 by 3.8 %. FX reserves at their lowest.Oman, the only GCC country to benefit from Trump’s war.

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Markets have rapidly repriced geopolitical risk, but the latest rally reflects higher uncertainty rather than expectations of a prolonged supply shock.</li>
<li>Major institutions view USD 100/b as a conditional scenario, requiring sustained disruptions to physical oil flows rather than continued geopolitical escalation.</li>
<li>Options positioning, implied volatility and managed money exposure suggest traders are hedging against upside risk, not yet positioning for a structural bull market.</li>
</ul>


Markets have rapidly repriced geopolitical risk, but the latest rally reflects higher uncertainty rather than expectations of a prolonged supply shock.
Major institutions view USD 100/b as a conditional scenario, requiring sustained disruptions to physical oil flows rather than continued geopolitical escalation.
Options positioning, implied volatility and managed money exposure suggest traders are hedging against upside risk, not yet positioning for a structural bull market.


Oil Markets Have Repriced Risk, but Can the Rally Be Sustained?

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research, WHB Energy Research LLC

William H Brown III

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research

Independent energy equity and commodity boutique

WHB Energy Research LLC

WHB Energy Research LLC is an independent energy industry equity and commodity boutique
providing analysis and trading/investment recommendations to hedge funds, mutual funds, oil
and gas producing companies, energy consuming companies and high net worth individuals.
WHB Energy Research LLC fills a major void by providing top level fundamental and
qualitative research complemented by state of the art quantitative modeling. WHB Energy
Research LLC also engages in physical oil trading activity as an agent/intermediary and also
provides expert witness consultation and testimony. From 2003-2005 Mr. Brown established and
managed an energy hedge fund for a single investor/client. Specialties: Economic and financial
analysis and forecasting of the NYMEX, ICE, and international physical petroleum markets and
energy equities in the integrated, independent producer, refining, drilling, service, and
transportation sectors.

<ul>
<li>If in fact the Houthi-Saudi issues cannot be resolved, there is a risk of even higher oil prices as another combative front opens up.</li>
<li>Under an absolute worst-case scenario, to which we would assign low odds at this point, would be if there is an attack on Saudi Arabia’s critical facilities at Abqaiq.           </li>
<li>In the interim, there is no indication that the conflict on the “primary front,” i.e., the U.S. versus Iran, shows any sign of abating.       </li>
</ul>


If in fact the Houthi-Saudi issues cannot be resolved, there is a risk of even higher oil prices as another combative front opens up.
Under an absolute worst-case scenario, to which we would assign low odds at this point, would be if there is an attack on Saudi Arabia’s critical facilities at Abqaiq.           
In the interim, there is no indication that the conflict on the “primary front,” i.e., the U.S. versus Iran, shows any sign of abating.       


Morning Market Notes: Further Escalation of the Houthi-Saudi Conflict Implies Even Higher Oil Prices

Independent Price Reporting Agency, QC Intel

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Independent Price Reporting Agency

QC Intel

We are an independent price reporting agency (PRA) providing price assessments, original news and trade data for the global energy transition markets.

Our mission is to bring greater transparency to these rapidly developing markets, powering transactions and helping the world to decarbonize as efficiently as possible.

<ul><li>Crude futures were climbing higher on Tuesday as renewed threats to physical oil supplies offset attempts to broker a new ceasefire deal between the US and Iran.</li><li>Front-month Sep26 ICE Brent futures were up 2.2% at $91.22/b (2015 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was at $84.50/b , up 2.5% versus Monday's settle.</li><li>Oil prices had initially rowed back as investors assessed reports of mediation efforts between Iran and the US for a new truce as kinetic activity continued between the two sides, while Yemen's Houthis have threatened a naval blockade on Saudi vessels.</li></ul>

Crude futures were climbing higher on Tuesday as renewed threats to physical oil supplies offset attempts to broker a new ceasefire deal between the US and Iran.Front-month Sep26 ICE Brent futures were up 2.2% at $91.22/b (2015 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was at $84.50/b , up 2.5% versus Monday's settle.Oil prices had initially rowed back as investors assessed reports of mediation efforts between Iran and the US for a new truce as kinetic activity continued between the two sides, while Yemen's Houthis have threatened a naval blockade on Saudi vessels.

Oil futures: Crude higher as supply threat offset diplomatic efforts

<ul>
<li>Thus far, at least, our revised “near-all-out-war” peak for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract remains intact.   </li>
<li>Further gains yesterday were inhibited by word that negotiations are still possible, no matter how implausible they may appear at the present time.          </li>
<li>The IRGC continues to emphasize they will never relinquish “control” over the Strait of Hormuz, our most important assumption since Day 1 of the war.</li>
</ul>


Thus far, at least, our revised “near-all-out-war” peak for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract remains intact.   
Further gains yesterday were inhibited by word that negotiations are still possible, no matter how implausible they may appear at the present time.          
The IRGC continues to emphasize they will never relinquish “control” over the Strait of Hormuz, our most important assumption since Day 1 of the war.


Morning Market Notes: Thus Far Our "Almost All-Out War" NYMEX Crude Oil Price Peak Remains Intact

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Middle East FX, September 25th 2026

Kuwait passed legislation for sukuk borrowing and a new mortgage law. Bahrain’s GDP fell in Q1 by 3.8 %. FX reserves at their...

MENA Market Lab

Oil Markets Have Repriced Risk, but Can the Rally Be Sustained?

Markets have priced in geopolitical risk, but the recent rally is driven by uncertainty rather than a prolonged supply shock.

Mint Finance

Morning Market Notes: Further Escalation of the Houthi-Saudi Conflict Implies Even Higher Oil Prices

Houthi-Saudi tensions may lead to higher oil prices, with potential for attacks on critical Saudi facilities, while U.S.-Iran conflict remains...

William H Brown III

Oil futures: Crude higher as supply threat offset diplomatic efforts

Crude futures were climbing higher as renewed threats to physical oil supplies offset attempts to broker a new ceasefire deal between the US and...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Morning Market Notes: Thus Far Our "Almost All-Out War" NYMEX Crude Oil Price Peak Remains Intact

Despite further military escalation, our "near-all-out-war" peak for NYMEX crude oil contract remains intact as IRGC maintains control over the...

William H Brown III

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Middle East FX, September 25th 2026

Kuwait passed legislation for sukuk borrowing and a new mortgage law. Bahrain’s GDP fell in Q1 by 3.8 %. FX reserves at their...

MENA Market Lab

Oil Markets Have Repriced Risk, but Can the Rally Be Sustained?

​Markets have priced in geopolitical risk, but the recent rally is driven by uncertainty rather than a prolonged supply shock.

Mint Finance

Morning Market Notes: Further Escalation of the Houthi-Saudi Conflict Implies Even Higher Oil Prices

​Houthi-Saudi tensions may lead to higher oil prices, with potential for attacks on critical Saudi facilities, while U.S.-Iran conflict remains...

William H Brown III

Oil futures: Crude higher as supply threat offset diplomatic efforts

Crude futures were climbing higher as renewed threats to physical oil supplies offset attempts to broker a new ceasefire deal between the US and...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Morning Market Notes: Thus Far Our "Almost All-Out War" NYMEX Crude Oil Price Peak Remains Intact

​Despite further military escalation, our "near-all-out-war" peak for NYMEX crude oil contract remains intact as IRGC maintains control over the...

William H Brown III

Markets have priced in geopolitical risk, but the recent rally is driven by uncertainty rather than a prolonged supply shock.

Houthi-Saudi tensions may lead to higher oil prices, with potential for attacks on critical Saudi facilities, while U.S.-Iran conflict remains...

Despite further military escalation, our "near-all-out-war" peak for NYMEX crude oil contract remains intact as IRGC maintains control over the...