Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Ex-President Nicolas Maduro and his wife were captured in a US law-enforcement maneuver supported by 150 warplanes. They are to be produced in NewYork facing charges of narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking. </li>
<li>US will run Venezuela (especially its oil industry), but the existing authorities will largely remain in place (avoiding the mistake of Iraq, where 250,000 Ba'athists were banned, with deleterious consequences). </li>
<li>After initial volatility, we expect Brent crude prices to decline, benefitting Trump politically. Chevron will be the winner in Venezuela, Exxon in Guyana. China, Cuba, PDVSA relative losers.  </li>
</ul>


Ex-President Nicolas Maduro and his wife were captured in a US law-enforcement maneuver supported by 150 warplanes. They are to be produced in NewYork facing charges of narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking. 
US will run Venezuela (especially its oil industry), but the existing authorities will largely remain in place (avoiding the mistake of Iraq, where 250,000 Ba'athists were banned, with deleterious consequences). 
After initial volatility, we expect Brent crude prices to decline, benefitting Trump politically. Chevron will be the winner in Venezuela, Exxon in Guyana. China, Cuba, PDVSA relative losers.  


Venezuela/US: Avoiding the Iraq Mistake, to Stabilise the Country and Gain the Oil

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research, WHB Energy Research LLC

William H Brown III

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research

Independent energy equity and commodity boutique

WHB Energy Research LLC

WHB Energy Research LLC is an independent energy industry equity and commodity boutique
providing analysis and trading/investment recommendations to hedge funds, mutual funds, oil
and gas producing companies, energy consuming companies and high net worth individuals.
WHB Energy Research LLC fills a major void by providing top level fundamental and
qualitative research complemented by state of the art quantitative modeling. WHB Energy
Research LLC also engages in physical oil trading activity as an agent/intermediary and also
provides expert witness consultation and testimony. From 2003-2005 Mr. Brown established and
managed an energy hedge fund for a single investor/client. Specialties: Economic and financial
analysis and forecasting of the NYMEX, ICE, and international physical petroleum markets and
energy equities in the integrated, independent producer, refining, drilling, service, and
transportation sectors.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>As we previously suggested, the current “lower level” of U.S.-Iran military activity shows absolutely no sign of ending.      </li>
<li>As we also have anticipated since Day 1, the Strait of Hormuz remains the “front burner” issue, not Iran’s nuclear program.    </li>
<li>As previously discussed, we believe the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract will remain in a trading range between an “upper 6 handle” and an “upper 7 handle.”       </li>
</ul>


As we previously suggested, the current “lower level” of U.S.-Iran military activity shows absolutely no sign of ending.      
As we also have anticipated since Day 1, the Strait of Hormuz remains the “front burner” issue, not Iran’s nuclear program.    
As previously discussed, we believe the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract will remain in a trading range between an “upper 6 handle” and an “upper 7 handle.”       


Monday Macro Update: "Lower Temperature" Military Activity Consistent with Our CL Trading Range

Independent Price Reporting Agency, QC Intel

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Independent Price Reporting Agency

QC Intel

We are an independent price reporting agency (PRA) providing price assessments, original news and trade data for the global energy transition markets.

Our mission is to bring greater transparency to these rapidly developing markets, powering transactions and helping the world to decarbonize as efficiently as possible.

<ul><li>Crude futures opened higher on Monday after further exchanges of fire over the weekend, as the US and Iran battled it out for control of the Strait of Hormuz.</li><li>Front-month Sep26 ICE  Brent  futures were up 4% at $78.99/b (0145 BST), while Aug26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $74.37/b , up 4.1% versus Wednesday's settle.</li><li>Prices extended last week's rebound after Tehran said on Sunday the strategic waterway was closed until further notice, although the US insists the Strait of Hormuz is open.</li></ul>

Crude futures opened higher on Monday after further exchanges of fire over the weekend, as the US and Iran battled it out for control of the Strait of Hormuz.Front-month Sep26 ICE  Brent  futures were up 4% at $78.99/b (0145 BST), while Aug26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $74.37/b , up 4.1% versus Wednesday's settle.Prices extended last week's rebound after Tehran said on Sunday the strategic waterway was closed until further notice, although the US insists the Strait of Hormuz is open.

Oil Futures: Crude races higher as Mideast hostilities extend into Monday

<ul><li>Crude futures rowed back from earlier highs on Thursday despite the US striking Iranian targets for a second night, prompting an immediate response from Iran.</li><li>Front-month Sep26 ICE  Brent  futures were down 2.4% at $76.16/b (1810 BST), while Aug26 NYMEX WTI was at $71.97/b , down 2.1% versus Wednesday's settle.</li><li>Benchmarks opened higher after US President Donald Trump declared that the ceasefire with Iran was over as tensions flared again, lifting Brent above $79/b in Asian trading hours.</li></ul>

Crude futures rowed back from earlier highs on Thursday despite the US striking Iranian targets for a second night, prompting an immediate response from Iran.Front-month Sep26 ICE  Brent  futures were down 2.4% at $76.16/b (1810 BST), while Aug26 NYMEX WTI was at $71.97/b , down 2.1% versus Wednesday's settle.Benchmarks opened higher after US President Donald Trump declared that the ceasefire with Iran was over as tensions flared again, lifting Brent above $79/b in Asian trading hours.

Oil futures: Crude off highs despite further US strikes on Iran

<ul><li>Crude futures steadied at slightly lower levels on Friday as an uneasy calm returned to the Middle East, although benchmarks were heading for a first weekly rise in a month as tensions remain high.</li><li>Front-month Sep26 ICE  Brent  futures were down 0.3% at $76.07/b (2100 BST), while Aug26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $71.61/b , down 0.65% versus Thursday's settle.</li><li>Prices were still on course for gains of 4% to 5% on the week as the US hit dozens of targets across Iran after several oil and gas carriers were targeted by Tehran, while President Donald Trump said the 60-day ceasefire extension was effectively over.</li></ul>

Crude futures steadied at slightly lower levels on Friday as an uneasy calm returned to the Middle East, although benchmarks were heading for a first weekly rise in a month as tensions remain high.Front-month Sep26 ICE  Brent  futures were down 0.3% at $76.07/b (2100 BST), while Aug26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $71.61/b , down 0.65% versus Thursday's settle.Prices were still on course for gains of 4% to 5% on the week as the US hit dozens of targets across Iran after several oil and gas carriers were targeted by Tehran, while President Donald Trump said the 60-day ceasefire extension was effectively over.

Oil futures: Crude eases as calm returns, heads for weekly gains

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Venezuela/US: Avoiding the Iraq Mistake, to Stabilise the Country and Gain the Oil

Maduro captured in US law-enforcement maneuver: US to control Venezuela's oil industry, but existing authorities to remain. Oil prices to decline,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Monday Macro Update: "Lower Temperature" Military Activity Consistent with Our CL Trading Range

US-Iran military activity continues, with focus on the Strait of Hormuz rather than Iran's nuclear program. Prompt NYMEX crude oil contract...

William H Brown III

Oil Futures: Crude races higher as Mideast hostilities extend into Monday

Crude futures opened higher Monday after further exchanges of fire over the weekend, as the US and Iran battled it out for control of the Strait of...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Oil futures: Crude off highs despite further US strikes on Iran

Crude futures rowed back from earlier highs on Thursday despite the US striking Iranian targets for a second night, prompting an immediate response...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Oil futures: Crude eases as calm returns, heads for weekly gains

Crude futures steadied at slightly lower levels on Friday as an uneasy calm returned to the Middle East, although benchmarks were heading for...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Venezuela/US: Avoiding the Iraq Mistake, to Stabilise the Country and Gain the Oil

​Maduro captured in US law-enforcement maneuver: US to control Venezuela's oil industry, but existing authorities to remain. Oil prices to decline,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Monday Macro Update: "Lower Temperature" Military Activity Consistent with Our CL Trading Range

​US-Iran military activity continues, with focus on the Strait of Hormuz rather than Iran's nuclear program. Prompt NYMEX crude oil contract...

William H Brown III

Oil Futures: Crude races higher as Mideast hostilities extend into Monday

Crude futures opened higher Monday after further exchanges of fire over the weekend, as the US and Iran battled it out for control of the Strait of...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Oil futures: Crude off highs despite further US strikes on Iran

Crude futures rowed back from earlier highs on Thursday despite the US striking Iranian targets for a second night, prompting an immediate response...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Oil futures: Crude eases as calm returns, heads for weekly gains

Crude futures steadied at slightly lower levels on Friday as an uneasy calm returned to the Middle East, although benchmarks were heading for...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Maduro captured in US law-enforcement maneuver: US to control Venezuela's oil industry, but existing authorities to remain. Oil prices to decline,...

US-Iran military activity continues, with focus on the Strait of Hormuz rather than Iran's nuclear program. Prompt NYMEX crude oil contract...