Podcast by Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend, Macro Voices

Macro Voices

Podcast by Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend

Weekly market commentary by Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend and interviews with the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics. Made possible by funding from Fourth Turning Capital Management, LLC

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Oil markets in 2024 experienced slow supply and demand growth after years of high volatility</li>
<li>Heading into 2025, demand is reaccelerating faster than supply, leading to a bullish outlook</li>
<li>With low inventory levels and a modest supply deficit expected, prices are likely to gradually rise to low 80s Brent basis</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Oil markets in 2024 experienced slow supply and demand growth after years of high volatility
Heading into 2025, demand is reaccelerating faster than supply, leading to a bullish outlook
With low inventory levels and a modest supply deficit expected, prices are likely to gradually rise to low 80s Brent basis

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

MacroVoices #465 Rory Johnston: Oil Markets Under Trump 2.0

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Trump prioritizes reducing US trade deficit by urging nations with trade surpluses to increase oil and gas purchases or face tariffs</li><li>To reduce bilateral deficits, US would need to significantly increase oil and gas exports to Europe, China, South Korea, and Japan</li><li>Trump administration aims to accelerate US oil and gas production growth to meet demand and potentially lower costs for producers to achieve goals of reducing trade deficit and increasing energy exports</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Trump prioritizes reducing US trade deficit by urging nations with trade surpluses to increase oil and gas purchases or face tariffsTo reduce bilateral deficits, US would need to significantly increase oil and gas exports to Europe, China, South Korea, and JapanTrump administration aims to accelerate US oil and gas production growth to meet demand and potentially lower costs for producers to achieve goals of reducing trade deficit and increasing energy exportsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 24/Jan, US crude inventories increased by 3.5m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.2m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles rose, while distillate stocks fell more than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 321 Bcf for the week ending 24/Jan, beating analyst expectations of a 317 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Shell’s Q4 adjusted earnings dropped 38.3% QoQ and 49.9% YoY, missing estimates due to weak margins and oil prices. HSBC raised its PT on Chevron but cut it for Exxon.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 24/Jan, US crude inventories increased by 3.5m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.2m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles rose, while distillate stocks fell more than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 321 Bcf for the week ending 24/Jan, beating analyst expectations of a 317 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.
Shell’s Q4 adjusted earnings dropped 38.3% QoQ and 49.9% YoY, missing estimates due to weak margins and oil prices. HSBC raised its PT on Chevron but cut it for Exxon.


[ETP 2025/05] WTI Falls on Trump’s Trade Policies; Henry Hub Drops on Milder Weather Forecasts

<ul>
<li>WTI futures fell by 3.5% for the week ending 24/Jan on the back of downward pressure from Trump’s hydrocarbon output policies and brewing trade disputes.</li>
<li>WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.85 from 1.28 (17/Jan) last week, as call volume rose by 8.3% WoW while put volume decreased by 28.4%.  </li>
<li>WTI OI PCR rose to 1.01 from 1.00 last week. Call OI rose by 5.7% WoW and put OI increased by 7.3%.</li>
</ul>


WTI futures fell by 3.5% for the week ending 24/Jan on the back of downward pressure from Trump’s hydrocarbon output policies and brewing trade disputes.
WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.85 from 1.28 (17/Jan) last week, as call volume rose by 8.3% WoW while put volume decreased by 28.4%.  
WTI OI PCR rose to 1.01 from 1.00 last week. Call OI rose by 5.7% WoW and put OI increased by 7.3%.


[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/04] WTI Slips as Trump Advocates Higher Output, Trade Tariffs

<ul>
<li>The U.S. oil and gas rig count dropped for the third consecutive week, falling by 4 to 576 for the week ending 24/Jan.</li>
<li>For the week ending 17/Jan, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.477m bpd from 13.481m bpd the week prior.</li>
<li>The number of active U.S. oil rigs fell by 6 to 472, while gas rigs grew by 1 to 99. U.S. producers cut four rigs in Texas.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. oil and gas rig count dropped for the third consecutive week, falling by 4 to 576 for the week ending 24/Jan.
For the week ending 17/Jan, U.S. oil production moderately fell to 13.477m bpd from 13.481m bpd the week prior.
The number of active U.S. oil rigs fell by 6 to 472, while gas rigs grew by 1 to 99. U.S. producers cut four rigs in Texas.


U.S. Rig Count Falls for Third Straight Week Amid Sharp Oil Rig Count Decline

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

MacroVoices #465 Rory Johnston: Oil Markets Under Trump 2.0

Patrick Ceresna emphasizes the importance of heavy blend stock for refining U.S. shale oil as the S&P 500, US dollar index, and various commodity...

Macro Voices

Global Commodities: $45 is the new $55

Trump aims to reduce US trade deficit by increasing oil and gas sales, which may require a significant boost in exports and higher oil prices to...

At Any Rate

[ETP 2025/05] WTI Falls on Trump’s Trade Policies; Henry Hub Drops on Milder Weather Forecasts

US oil inventories rose more than expected, while natural gas inventories fell more than expected. Shell's earnings declined due to weak margins...

Mint Finance

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/04] WTI Slips as Trump Advocates Higher Output, Trade Tariffs

WTI futures dropped 3.5% due to Trump's policies and trade tensions. Put/Call volume ratio decreased, while OI PCR slightly rose.

Mint Finance

U.S. Rig Count Falls for Third Straight Week Amid Sharp Oil Rig Count Decline

The U.S. oil and gas rig count continues to decline, with oil production also dropping slightly. U.S. producers cut four rigs in Texas and one in...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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MacroVoices #465 Rory Johnston: Oil Markets Under Trump 2.0

Patrick Ceresna emphasizes the importance of heavy blend stock for refining U.S. shale oil as the S&P 500, US dollar index, and various commodity...

Macro Voices

Global Commodities: $45 is the new $55

Trump aims to reduce US trade deficit by increasing oil and gas sales, which may require a significant boost in exports and higher oil prices to...

At Any Rate

[ETP 2025/05] WTI Falls on Trump’s Trade Policies; Henry Hub Drops on Milder Weather Forecasts

​US oil inventories rose more than expected, while natural gas inventories fell more than expected. Shell's earnings declined due to weak margins...

Mint Finance

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/04] WTI Slips as Trump Advocates Higher Output, Trade Tariffs

​WTI futures dropped 3.5% due to Trump's policies and trade tensions. Put/Call volume ratio decreased, while OI PCR slightly rose.

Mint Finance

U.S. Rig Count Falls for Third Straight Week Amid Sharp Oil Rig Count Decline

​The U.S. oil and gas rig count continues to decline, with oil production also dropping slightly. U.S. producers cut four rigs in Texas and one in...

Mint Finance

US oil inventories rose more than expected, while natural gas inventories fell more than expected. Shell's earnings declined due to weak margins...

WTI futures dropped 3.5% due to Trump's policies and trade tensions. Put/Call volume ratio decreased, while OI PCR slightly rose.

The U.S. oil and gas rig count continues to decline, with oil production also dropping slightly. U.S. producers cut four rigs in Texas and one in...