Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>OPEC cut its 2024 demand growth forecast for the fifth consecutive time this year. It lowered its 2024 and 2025 forecast 11.5% and 5.8%, respectively.</li>
<li>The EIA and IEA lowered their 2024 demand projections by 10.1% and 8.7%, respectively. However, they raised their 2025 projections by 5.7% and 11.1%, respectively.</li>
<li>The EIA reduced 2024 and 2025 price forecasts for WTI and Brent, citing higher non-OPEC+ production and subdued demand, which are expected to drive global inventory builds after Q1 2025.</li>
</ul>


OPEC cut its 2024 demand growth forecast for the fifth consecutive time this year. It lowered its 2024 and 2025 forecast 11.5% and 5.8%, respectively.
The EIA and IEA lowered their 2024 demand projections by 10.1% and 8.7%, respectively. However, they raised their 2025 projections by 5.7% and 11.1%, respectively.
The EIA reduced 2024 and 2025 price forecasts for WTI and Brent, citing higher non-OPEC+ production and subdued demand, which are expected to drive global inventory builds after Q1 2025.


OPEC Cuts Demand Forecasts for Fifth Straight Month; EIA Lowers Price Outlook on Supply Glut

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 06/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 1.4m barrels, beating expectations of a 1m barrel decrease. However, gasoline and distillate stocks rose more than expected again.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 190 Bcf for the week ending 06/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 175 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Wells Fargo raised its 12-month PT for Chevron but lowered targets for Shell and Occidental. Exxon targets a CAGR of 10% in earnings and 8% in cash flow through 2030.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 06/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 1.4m barrels, beating expectations of a 1m barrel decrease. However, gasoline and distillate stocks rose more than expected again.
US natural gas inventories fell by 190 Bcf for the week ending 06/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 175 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Wells Fargo raised its 12-month PT for Chevron but lowered targets for Shell and Occidental. Exxon targets a CAGR of 10% in earnings and 8% in cash flow through 2030.


[ETP 2024/50] WTI Rebounds on Outlook of Better Demand in 2025; Henry Hub Rises but Remains Volatile

<ul>
<li>WTI futures dropped 1.8% for the week ending 06/Dec, as concerns of oversupply in 2025 offset the impact of OPEC extending cuts and rising geopolitical tensions.</li>
<li>WTI options Put/Call volume ratio jumped to 1.24 from 0.82 (29/Nov) last week, as call volume rose by 19.8% WoW while put volume surged by 81%.  </li>
<li>WTI OI PCR remained unchanged at 0.88 from last week. Call OI rose by 3.3% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.6%.</li>
</ul>


WTI futures dropped 1.8% for the week ending 06/Dec, as concerns of oversupply in 2025 offset the impact of OPEC extending cuts and rising geopolitical tensions.
WTI options Put/Call volume ratio jumped to 1.24 from 0.82 (29/Nov) last week, as call volume rose by 19.8% WoW while put volume surged by 81%.  
WTI OI PCR remained unchanged at 0.88 from last week. Call OI rose by 3.3% WoW, while put OI increased by 3.6%.


[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/49] WTI Fell for the Second Straight Week on Supply Concerns

<ul>
<li>The US oil and gas rig count rose by 7 to 589 for the week ending on 06/Dec, rising for the first time in four weeks</li>
<li>For the week ending 29/Nov, US oil production rose to 13.51m bpd from 13.49m bpd the week prior. US output edged past its record high of 13.5m bpd.</li>
<li>The number of active US oil rigs rose by five to 482, while the US gas rig count rose by two to 102.</li>
</ul>


The US oil and gas rig count rose by 7 to 589 for the week ending on 06/Dec, rising for the first time in four weeks
For the week ending 29/Nov, US oil production rose to 13.51m bpd from 13.49m bpd the week prior. US output edged past its record high of 13.5m bpd.
The number of active US oil rigs rose by five to 482, while the US gas rig count rose by two to 102.


US Rig Count Rises for the First Time in 8 Weeks, Led by Surge in Oil Rigs

<ul>
<li>OPEC+ extends crude oil supply cuts to the end of 2026, a year longer than planned. It also pushed its planned output hikes by three months to April 2025.</li>
<li>OPEC+ revised its output hike plan, reducing monthly increases to 138k bpd over 18 months, down from 180k bpd over 12 months.</li>
<li>OPEC+ approved a 300k bpd output increase for the UAE, starting in April 2025 through September 2026, delayed from the original January 2025 start.</li>
</ul>


OPEC+ extends crude oil supply cuts to the end of 2026, a year longer than planned. It also pushed its planned output hikes by three months to April 2025.
OPEC+ revised its output hike plan, reducing monthly increases to 138k bpd over 18 months, down from 180k bpd over 12 months.
OPEC+ approved a 300k bpd output increase for the UAE, starting in April 2025 through September 2026, delayed from the original January 2025 start.


OPEC+ Extending Output Cuts Highlights Concerns of Weak Demand and Ample Supply

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

OPEC Cuts Demand Forecasts for Fifth Straight Month; EIA Lowers Price Outlook on Supply Glut

OPEC, EIA, and IEA all lowered 2024 demand forecasts citing Weak demand from China. They expect a oversupplied market in 2025 due to increased...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/50] WTI Rebounds on Outlook of Better Demand in 2025; Henry Hub Rises but Remains Volatile

US crude inventories fell more than expected, but gasoline and distillate stocks rose. Natural gas inventories beat expectations. Wells Fargo...

Mint Finance

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/49] WTI Fell for the Second Straight Week on Supply Concerns

WTI futures fell 1.8% due to oversupply concerns despite OPEC cuts and geopolitical tensions. Put/Call ratio rose significantly with call volume...

Mint Finance

US Rig Count Rises for the First Time in 8 Weeks, Led by Surge in Oil Rigs

US oil and gas rig count increases for the first time in four weeks, with US oil production reaching record high of 13.51m bpd. US oil rigs rose...

Mint Finance

OPEC+ Extending Output Cuts Highlights Concerns of Weak Demand and Ample Supply

OPEC+ extends oil supply cuts to end of 2026, delays output hikes by three months. Also, cut planned monthly output hikes to 138k bpd from 180k...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

OPEC Cuts Demand Forecasts for Fifth Straight Month; EIA Lowers Price Outlook on Supply Glut

​OPEC, EIA, and IEA all lowered 2024 demand forecasts citing Weak demand from China. They expect a oversupplied market in 2025 due to increased...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/50] WTI Rebounds on Outlook of Better Demand in 2025; Henry Hub Rises but Remains Volatile

​US crude inventories fell more than expected, but gasoline and distillate stocks rose. Natural gas inventories beat expectations. Wells Fargo...

Mint Finance

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/49] WTI Fell for the Second Straight Week on Supply Concerns

​WTI futures fell 1.8% due to oversupply concerns despite OPEC cuts and geopolitical tensions. Put/Call ratio rose significantly with call volume...

Mint Finance

US Rig Count Rises for the First Time in 8 Weeks, Led by Surge in Oil Rigs

​US oil and gas rig count increases for the first time in four weeks, with US oil production reaching record high of 13.51m bpd. US oil rigs rose...

Mint Finance

OPEC+ Extending Output Cuts Highlights Concerns of Weak Demand and Ample Supply

​OPEC+ extends oil supply cuts to end of 2026, delays output hikes by three months. Also, cut planned monthly output hikes to 138k bpd from 180k...

Mint Finance

OPEC, EIA, and IEA all lowered 2024 demand forecasts citing Weak demand from China. They expect a oversupplied market in 2025 due to increased...

US crude inventories fell more than expected, but gasoline and distillate stocks rose. Natural gas inventories beat expectations. Wells Fargo...

WTI futures fell 1.8% due to oversupply concerns despite OPEC cuts and geopolitical tensions. Put/Call ratio rose significantly with call volume...

US oil and gas rig count increases for the first time in four weeks, with US oil production reaching record high of 13.51m bpd. US oil rigs rose...

OPEC+ extends oil supply cuts to end of 2026, delays output hikes by three months. Also, cut planned monthly output hikes to 138k bpd from 180k...