Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>While it may seem as a logical step to compare the current cash price with the forward futures contract, that’s unfortunately way too easy to justify such a statement.</li><li>In fact, it is even miss-information.</li><li>What makes more sense is to look at the input cost factors and the forecasts for these components that the USDA is providing. </li></ul>

While it may seem as a logical step to compare the current cash price with the forward futures contract, that’s unfortunately way too easy to justify such a statement.In fact, it is even miss-information.What makes more sense is to look at the input cost factors and the forecasts for these components that the USDA is providing. 

Don’t Get Fooled by Commodity Social Media Craziness

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 14 - July 19.</li>
<li>The most noticeable highlights are: all US markets and stocks we cover sold off last week, apart from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com (AMZN US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> </li>
<li>In Asia, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> is very oversold, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> is also oversold. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)</a> start to be overbought.</li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 14 - July 19.
The most noticeable highlights are: all US markets and stocks we cover sold off last week, apart from Amazon.com (AMZN US) , Alphabet (GOOG US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) 
In Asia, BYD (1211 HK) is very oversold, and Fast Retailing (9983 JP) is also oversold. Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) start to be overbought.


Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 14 – July 19

Market Strategist, RW Advisory

Ron William

Market Strategist

RW Advisory

RW Advisory, founded by Ron William, a market strategist with 20+ years of experience, offers macro/tactical research and advisory to a wide range of financial institutions.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Surface Strength, Underlying Fragility: Despite record highs in U.S. equities, narrow market breadth, inter-market divergences, and macro-cycle pressures signal growing instability beneath the surface.</li>
<li>Rising Tail Risks: Geopolitical tensions (e.g., fragile Iran-Israel ceasefire) and shifting U.S. trade policy (potential 70% tariffs) threaten to disrupt market momentum and trigger volatility.</li>
<li>Prepare for Inflection: Timing models and liquidity indicators point to a Q3 turning point; investors should rebalance toward quality, raise cash, and deploy tactical hedges ahead of possible late-year turbulence.</li>
</ul>


Surface Strength, Underlying Fragility: Despite record highs in U.S. equities, narrow market breadth, inter-market divergences, and macro-cycle pressures signal growing instability beneath the surface.
Rising Tail Risks: Geopolitical tensions (e.g., fragile Iran-Israel ceasefire) and shifting U.S. trade policy (potential 70% tariffs) threaten to disrupt market momentum and trigger volatility.
Prepare for Inflection: Timing models and liquidity indicators point to a Q3 turning point; investors should rebalance toward quality, raise cash, and deploy tactical hedges ahead of possible late-year turbulence.


US Equities Hit All-Time Highs—but Are Markets Ignoring Growing Risks?

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 7 - July 11.</li>
<li>Since our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-markets-tactical-outlook-week-of-june-30-july-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook published last week</a>, US markets became even more overbought by the end of the week, while some Asian  stocks started to pull back. </li>
<li>Stocks are falling on Monday, the Trump administration is threatening imposing 25% tariffs on a number of nations (including Japan and South Korea), global markets may close the week down.
</li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 7 - July 11.
Since our Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook published last week, US markets became even more overbought by the end of the week, while some Asian  stocks started to pull back. 
Stocks are falling on Monday, the Trump administration is threatening imposing 25% tariffs on a number of nations (including Japan and South Korea), global markets may close the week down.



Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

<ul><li>Recap of last week's events including good inflation news, pressure on Fed to cut interest rates, tensions between Israel and Iran escalating, and market outcomes</li><li>Factors showing risk-on sentiment with sales growth up, EPS growth strong, volatility and quality return on equity fluctuating</li><li>Discussion on factors influencing return on equity and quality, with insights into market trends and data analysis techniques</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Recap of last week's events including good inflation news, pressure on Fed to cut interest rates, tensions between Israel and Iran escalating, and market outcomesFactors showing risk-on sentiment with sales growth up, EPS growth strong, volatility and quality return on equity fluctuatingDiscussion on factors influencing return on equity and quality, with insights into market trends and data analysis techniquesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Barbarians with Bandwidth: Why Christina Qi Left the Hedge Fund World to Reinvent Data

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 14 – July 19

Our Weekly Tactical Outlook: US sold-off last week, except for Amazon, Alphabet, and NVIDIA (overbought). BYD and Fast Retailing are oversold in...

Nico Rosti

US Equities Hit All-Time Highs—but Are Markets Ignoring Growing Risks?

Markets are soaring, but risks are rising. This must-read report reveals hidden cracks, key timing signals, and strategies to protect gains ahead...

Ron William

Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

Nico Rosti

Barbarians with Bandwidth: Why Christina Qi Left the Hedge Fund World to Reinvent Data

Overall, last week saw positive economic news, with the Fed under pressure to cut interest rates, escalating tensions between Israel and Iran...

William Mann

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Don’t Get Fooled by Commodity Social Media Craziness

While it may seem as a logical step to compare the current cash price with the forward futures contract, that’s unfortunately way too easy to...

The Commodity Report

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 14 – July 19

Our Weekly Tactical Outlook: US sold-off last week, except for Amazon, Alphabet, and NVIDIA (overbought). BYD and Fast Retailing are oversold in...

Nico Rosti

US Equities Hit All-Time Highs—but Are Markets Ignoring Growing Risks?

Markets are soaring, but risks are rising. This must-read report reveals hidden cracks, key timing signals, and strategies to protect gains ahead...

Ron William

Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

​Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

Nico Rosti

Barbarians with Bandwidth: Why Christina Qi Left the Hedge Fund World to Reinvent Data

Overall, last week saw positive economic news, with the Fed under pressure to cut interest rates, escalating tensions between Israel and Iran...

William Mann

Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...